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24% 1K CPU rate (SFO-based) typical?

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Old Jun 27, 2014, 8:26 am
  #46  
 
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Originally Posted by fjfv19
Yes sir. I'm missing on leisure routes with regularity out of EWR this year. Maybe weekend mileage runners have better luck but business has been jammed out of EWR on most of my flights. Good for UA, I guess.
I don't think I have cleared even an expensive Q/V/W fare out of IAH in months...most of what I clear is AUS-IAH-AUS and occasionally on a cheap fare when demand is really low or I can SDC to different flights...
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Old Jun 27, 2014, 8:59 am
  #47  
 
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Originally Posted by Condition One

The only routes where I've gotten successful CPUs this year were short haul flights such as IAD-MCI or IAD-MSY. Since UA isn't releasing R space on international flights, I'm burning my GPUs on transcons.
Although OT a bit, since you mentioned international: I've found TATL upgrades quite easy from SFO and ORD (18 out of the last 21) - waiting for R space could be futile, since they release so little. Depending on what day of the week you fly, you often have to buy a higher than minimum fare however (it's not that much $$ for TATL). I usually buy Q - about $200-$400 more than S/T - even adding the co-pay, well worth it to be able to upgrade to a lie-flat seat, and way lower than buying P.
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Old Jun 27, 2014, 9:12 am
  #48  
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Originally Posted by spin88
This surprises me - a lot. I go to PHL a lot, and have looked at the IAH connections to avoid the impossible upgrades on SFO-PHL (on the A319). yet, R never shows on those flights, and I have been stuck in Y on the IAH-PHL or PHL-IAH leg on the late flight. Perhaps my experience is different as you are doing the opposite trip than I am (you are going IAH-PHL, rather than the other way for me).
i agree, this one was a surprise to me too given my lack of success into and out of PHL since the 757s went bye-bye. a few years back the ~730-8am 757s to ORD and DEN were an upgrade party even for 2Ps.

now that ORD-PHL is frequently RJ and IAH-PHL is 738, the party has most certainly ended. fortunately, SEA-PHL on AS regularly has U1 for advanced bookings with MVP Guest upgrades.
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Old Jun 27, 2014, 9:14 am
  #49  
 
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Originally Posted by limey1K
I'm not SFO based but I flew the following this week:

DEN-SFO U fare
SFO-SEA U fare
SEA-SFO U fare
SFO-DEN U fare

CPU 0/4 and all but one flight I finished no higher than #5.
Originally Posted by escapefromphl
With these policies your upgrade rates are bound to be higher at AA.
SFO-DEN and SFO-SEA?

How will the OP be better off on an airline that does not even fly the route he is taking?

Just take your 1K reserved seat in the bulkhead or exit row...
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Old Jun 27, 2014, 9:20 am
  #50  
 
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Originally Posted by spin88
I can't believe no one has yet pointed out that you are flying (per your own post) out of Hawaii (I assume OGG). They you attack people flying ex-SFO for generalizing? I just have to point out that OGG-SFO is an easy upgrade. Might be the easiest in the system. its flown by a UA 757 at this point (no more widebodies) and has almost no business traffic. R is routinely open, and I have never not had a CPU clear on that route.

The person with the odd travel pattern is you, and that you can't see that is mindboggling to me
He want the one who was generalizing...
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Old Jun 27, 2014, 9:35 am
  #51  
 
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Instead of arguing about individuals' upgrade experiences being typical or not, we can measure this quantitatively using UA's mobile app. For any flight to/from SFO simply divide the number of F seats by the sum of the F seats and uncleared wait list size:

u/g percent = 100 * numF / (numF + waitlist size)

just prior to take off. Of course this measures across all elites, so a fudge factor for 1Ks would need to be applied depending on what portion of the elite population they comprise. Anyways, perform the above measurement over a bunch of different flights, times, and cities to yield a statistically significant result.
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Old Jun 27, 2014, 9:42 am
  #52  
 
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Originally Posted by Miggles
Instead of arguing about individuals' upgrade experiences being typical or not, we can measure this quantitatively using UA's mobile app. For any flight to/from SFO simply divide the number of F seats by the sum of the F seats and uncleared wait list size:

u/g percent = 100 * numF / (numF + waitlist size)

just prior to take off. Of course this measures across all elites, so a fudge factor for 1Ks would need to be applied depending on what portion of the elite population they comprise. Anyways, perform the above measurement over a bunch of different flights, times, and cities to yield a statistically significant result.
Various issues doom this calculation to basically complete uselessness.
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Old Jun 27, 2014, 9:42 am
  #53  
 
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i am 0/5 this year but i am just a lowly silver. i was gold 3 years before that and had very low cpu too. but i am based out of sfo though and there are just so many elites on every darn flight! the upgrade list is always 25+ names.

my friend gave me her 4 gpu for my flights later this year and 2/4 cleared. fingers crossed that my sfo-tpe clears! life must be nice as a platinum or 1k :P
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Old Jun 27, 2014, 9:56 am
  #54  
 
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Originally Posted by globetrotter415
i am 0/5 this year but i am just a lowly silver. i was gold 3 years before that and had very low cpu too. but i am based out of sfo though and there are just so many elites on every darn flight! the upgrade list is always 25+ names.

my friend gave me her 4 gpu for my flights later this year and 2/4 cleared. fingers crossed that my sfo-tpe clears! life must be nice as a platinum or 1k :P
Life is good as a DM or PM on Delta, or a EXP on AA. Life sucks as a 1K, let alone a PLT on United. GS on United is good, although much worse than it was pre-merger.
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Old Jun 27, 2014, 10:00 am
  #55  
 
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
Have we proved the point there is no such thing as typical yet?
I would agree.

I would say that 24% is not typical (in a broad sense), but a rate in that range is not unheard of (or perhaps even unusual) depending on travel patterns.
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Old Jun 27, 2014, 10:52 am
  #56  
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Originally Posted by spin88
Very typical for those routes.
Two weeks ago I cleared SFO-SAN at T-24 both directions on a Q, Friday evening/Sunday evening.

My CPU experiences have been so different from what I often read here, I've sometimes wondered whether all 1K's are really treated equally.
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Old Jun 27, 2014, 11:05 am
  #57  
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Oops. Another upgrade out of SFO for this 1K (well, for a friend on an award ticket out of my account). Monday night SFO-OGG on a 738, no less. 96 hours out. I like my typical <25% upgrade success (sarcasm).

"Average" and "Typical" are completely different things.
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Old Jun 27, 2014, 11:24 am
  #58  
 
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Sounds about the same as me for a blended rate, combination of hub-hub (15% maybe) and other flights (maybe 40%).
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Old Jun 27, 2014, 11:27 am
  #59  
 
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Originally Posted by StingWest
Although OT a bit, since you mentioned international: I've found TATL upgrades quite easy from SFO and ORD (18 out of the last 21) - waiting for R space could be futile, since they release so little. Depending on what day of the week you fly, you often have to buy a higher than minimum fare however (it's not that much $$ for TATL). I usually buy Q - about $200-$400 more than S/T - even adding the co-pay, well worth it to be able to upgrade to a lie-flat seat, and way lower than buying P.
Except when you don't clear and gave Jeff a very nice $200-400 gift.
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Old Jun 27, 2014, 11:28 am
  #60  
 
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Originally Posted by mrswirl
2010 - 84% success - 1K
2011 - 85% success - 1K
2012 - 81% success - 1K
2013 - 49% success - 1K
2014 YTD - 6% success - Gold

These are all upgrades - CPU and instrument supported. Same basic travel patterns.

Numbers speak for themselves.
I wouldn't mix instrument and CPU together, they are completely different.
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