KenInEscazu

I agree with RNE that this is as good as it gets, but it still depends on whether or not the buyer has something planned where those miles can be used at a value exceeding their cost. Many times it is cheaper to simply buy the ticket. It all depends on how the miles can be applied and if one is willing to forego the earning of miles toward status.

5khours

It's an OK deal if your are flying international J or GF on UA metal. Otherwise...no. Also the rate will go down if you wait. My guess is that they'll try some kind of ineffective sale, and then will cut the rate in late June or early July.

KenInEscazu

Have you seen them offered as accelerator for less than $0.021 (rounded) per mile? Personally, that is the lowest I ever get. I earn so many miles flying and using my Chase Business UC Card that I don't ever buy them except on those rare occasions where I need PQMs, but in those cases I always look for the offers with the lowest RDM rate to bring down the all-in cost, and that's the best I've ever seen.

Please understand that I'm not being argumentative here. It's so easy to be misinterpreted in print. I'm genuinely just curious.

5khours

Used to get them all the time at 1.9cpm.

Given the devaluation of miles the price has to go down (IMHO). See my earlier posts in this thread.

ps9a

How long ago was the 1.9cpm you used to see/buy? I'm not interested in buying there either, but I don't remember seeing them at that price.

5khours

EOY 2012? Early 2013. Can't remember exactly. Bought quite a few miles at that price.

Sorry I'm wrong. They were 2.0 at the start of 2012 and then went up to 2.1 sometime during the year.

gpicur

I have several international Paid Business Class trips booked and each is offering the following: 30,000 RDMs for $680 and 30,000 PQMs for an additional $4,200 ($.143 per mile). I thought this was high since most of the posts report $.12 per mile for PQMs.

Am I to understand that you think that UA will bring the cost of the PQMs lower then this under some "sale" ? What would be your best guess at when the "sale" might occur and will it only be for new bookings ? Also, any speculation as to the CPM for PQMs ?

KenInEscazu

We are in agreement that the program has lost much of its overall value. This is theoretical for me for the earnings reasons I previously stated, but...

I fly regularly between SJO and MDE. The cheapest flights I ever see, and they are rare, are just under $600 RT. Those flights have limited schedule availability, making them even even harder to work into a work schedule. The regular price ranges between the $700s and $900s. This is in Economy, too, and on Copa or Avianca.

If one is to purchase miles at $0.021/ea, the award tickets can be booked for 20,000 miles RT, thus the price comes down to $420 + taxes, making it (for non-Colombian residents) under $500.

Personally, even with my excess M+ miles, I still find the Lifemiles 2x1 sales to be the best deal in the air. About 3 to 4 times per year they offer to sell miles to existing Lifemiles members at $0.03/mile* and match the purchase with an equal number of miles, bringing the cost down to $0.015/mile. As a *A member, Lifemiles can be used to book flights on UA or any other *A carrier. A much better deal than the UA accelerator offers or any sale I have seen UA offer. One must be enrolled in Lifemiles when the sale is announced, so don't wait to enroll if this is of interest.

So there are pockets of value, even at $0.021/mile, and the UA site is much more user friendly than the Lifemiles site, which is known to be somewhat problematic. It's a YMMV situation, to be sure, but for some it clearly still works.

*IMPORTANT - Lifemiles has announced a price increase to $0.033/mile coming soon. This will bring the cost per mile during the sales to $0.0165. See this thread for more than you'll ever need to know about Lifemiles sales.

RNE

Some have speculated that United will reduce the price of RDMs because more of them are now required to purchase certain award itineraries. I don't think one has anything to do with the other. We shall see.

5khours

If they had the price optimized to maximize profitability before, they will need to lower the price in order to optimize now (unless the basic laws of economics have changed.)

WineCountryUA

If your understanding of the demographics/motivations of mileage sales are correct;
If changes in capacity / award space don't change the the picture;
If changes made by other carriers don't change the picture;
If the arrangements with Chase for mileage sales are not changed;
......
Or in summary, we (individual customers) understand so little of the economics of mileage sales, that we are bit hapless at applying the "basic laws of economics" {which are actually quite complex in application}.

5khours

Ceteris paribus of course..., but are you aware of any changes that are going to impact this, e.g. do you think Chase called up UA after the deval and said, "We'd like to pay more for the miles we're buying," do you think there was an uptick in in paid GF sales because customers like cashew halves better than wholes? Last time I checked you raise prices when demand is going up...not when it's going down.

PS and BTW - I've been right so fare on the cuts from 2.5>2.3 and 2.3>2.1 (....well actually I was off by a few weeks for the timing on the latter)

KenInEscazu

Are you familiar with a guy named Jeff Smisek?

5khours

Indeed. To quote myself from an earlier post in this thread.

Kacee

+1
2.3 cpm was a good price pre-deval. 2.1 cpm post-deval is barely even borderline.

I think UA is benefitting from the perception that its miles are still worth more than they really are. The effects of the devaluation and reduced award availability have not yet been felt or understood by most MP members (my non FT friends have no idea what I'm talking about when I mention the devaluation).

In other words, the current market pricing depends on imperfect information. Presumably the market will eventually catch up, at which point UA would have to cut the price per mile to reflect market realities.