KARFA

Thanks Internaut. I am completely open to having made some monumental mess of my calculations and there being some major point I have missed - but I honestly can't see why the figures are so far apart.

IAN-UK

The extant data driving the numbers is what it is, so it's hard to say the numbers are wrong. Rational manipulation of those numbers justifies concern, and the depth of that concern leads to the politicians formulating, presenting and, ultimately, agreeing policies.

They are a fallible lot, our politicians: the policies may prove ineffective in which case he politicos will be damned; they may control the disease, in which case the policies will likely be marked down by some as over-kill, and the politicos damned. Not an easy life for politicians.

But those politician read the reports, see the data and listen to the epidemiologists and scientists - who really don't speak with forked-tongues. And those politicians are clearly spooked by the intelligence they gather.



It's still unclear to me what the decision makers in government might gain by feigning that alarm, manufacturing statistics to enable them to impose regulations neither they nor the population want to see imposed. Maybe I'm just a trusting soul

Stewie Mac

KARFA - I think that you're mixing up tests and cases. If there are 110 omicron cases, and that is 27% of total Covid cases, then that implies 110/.27= 407 total Covid cases in Scotland. If they took 35000 tests, that would imply a postivity of 1.1% - which is not impossible (and where your factor of 100x comes from). Now, I'm the first person to deride the whole charade as horsepoop, but in *this* instance the numbers don't appear to be impossible...

KARFA

There aren't 407 total daily cases in Scotland though, daily figures for new cases (all variants) are around 3-4,000 in Scotland, of which 110 are omicron.

Positivity rate for all of the UK for all covid variants is around 4.4% (about 60k daily new cases in around 1.36m daily test). The figures are bouncing around atm for new daily omicron, but let's take 1500 for the sake or argument as a figure for daily new omicron cases, that is a positivity rate for omicron of 0.11% ((1500/1360000)*100).

IAN-UK

For what it's worth todays omicron result from Scotland were double those of yesterday, at 562 of a total of 5,155 positives identified via 61K tests.

DaveS

Daily data:

Cases 78,610 (51,342 last Wednesday)
Deaths 165 (161)
Patients admitted 774 (739 on the 4th)
Patients in hospital 7,673 (7,357 on the 7th)
Patients in ventilation beds 896 (880 on the 7th)
People vaccinated up to and including 14 December 2021:
First dose: 51,332,920
Second dose: 46,842,497
Booster: 24,732,162

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 19.1% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is down 5.0%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 115.0 today. A big jump in cases is none too surprising. It is the second highest daily figure, the highest being on the 29th December at over 80,000. I would guess that record will be broken soon if we do not run out of tests. A respectable number of boosters were given yesterday at 656,711.

KARFA

Did you mean 265 for Scotland rather than 562? UKHSA figures just released for new daily cases say Scotland was 265. With 61011 tests that would mean 0.43% were omicron, 99.57% other variants.

Twitter

KARFA

New figures updated today

DaveS

This is what the BBC are reporting:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-59666966

Misco60

On 29 December only 345,000 tests were conducted, compared with 1.3 million yesterday, making it difficult to compare the current wave with previous ones. The only thing we can really look at is the trend, and that is clearly rising sharply even as the number of tests conducted each day remains roughly static.

Edited to add: Actually, it looks like today's number of new cases is the highest number ever reported on a single day: the number on 29 December was 53,000 and not 80,000. I think there's been some confusion between report date and specimen date.

KARFA

Ah, accumulated cases from UKHSA numbers since they started reporting is 532 for Scotland. I guess 4,000 is estimated infections. That ties in with the roughly quarter of cases are omicron, but of course that really depends on how accurate the 4,000 estimate is.

As I note, the proportion of omicron appearing in total testing doesn't seem to tie up with 25% omicron for some reason.

Silver Fox

If these:
Patients admitted
Patients in hospital
Patients in ventilation beds
....start to shift significantly then I think a lockdown looms. Perhaps the 93% of the UK (I think it was UK figures) that the ONS modelled that have antibodies are preventing death and hospitalizations to such a degree that "the lag" is not actually going to materialize as anything more than a trickle.

rockflyertalk

From what I have observed on these very informative daily figures, that the above quoted have not significantly shifted in the last 2–3 months. Which can only be good news. But I’m simply observing and have not tracked it closely. Cases have risen from 20-30K to 40-60k over 3-4 months but the other data points have not risen as dramatically. I could well be wrong…

IAN-UK

IAN-UK

oops - duplicate !