I think my hunch is proving to be correct, Blackburn has had its first falls in cases (when averaged over 7 days) since mid April. I predicted 125 - 134 - 143 - 138 - 130. It has turned out to be 125 - 134 - 143 - 139 - 133. It looks like continuing as something like 127 then 125.

The next two locations with high and increasing infections are Salford then Manchester, but Manchester has twice the population of Salford so it's big enough to show up on the UK stats. Stockport is not far behind. Cases are rising in all three, but not at the pace of Blackburn yet. I would say all three locations will have up to another week of rises, but in all 3 places this epidemic is very concentrated in the young, more so than Bolton (which is still falling) and Blackburn. What is therefore critical is that we don't have another Bolton or Blackburn and try to keep the surges in the existing places rather than going national.

Looks like another four weeks of the status quo. FWIW, I think it's the right decision - better to delay the next easing than have to go back to stricter measures.

My vote would be the status quo, but with a few visiting (vaccinated) Americans…

Once you remove travel out of the equation* I think quite a sizeable majority have all the freedoms they needs right now so I don't have any issue with delaying.

* However, I am deeply pessimistic about travel abroad within the next twelve months, not to mention the prospect of life dominated by whatever new variant of concern du jour.

The only place I really want to go I have an exemption for but I take your point about travel. Especially for those who are vaccinated.

Right decision on restrictions, imo. Better to stay where we are than have to go backwards later (and this is coming from a 20-something who would give anything to be in a nightclub again). Saying that, I live in Scotland so are rules are different anyway.

One thing I am fresh out of patience for is restricting travel to and from EU countries where the infection rate is a fraction of ours, vaccination rates are high and the only variant of concern is the one we gave them. Specifically for countries like Finland, Malta and Germany amber list status is becoming harder and harder to justify with every passing day. Watching the EU work hard to facilitate travel for fully vaccinated individuals while the UK continues to put up as many roadblocks as possible only adds insult to injury.

I understand that HMG doesn't want every Tom, Dick and Harry running off to Spain but it would be nice if fully vaccinated people could go see their equally fully vaccinated family members in an extremely low-risk country without endless quarantining and forking over hundreds of pounds for PCR tests. I would be happy to keep the tests even, if we could ditch the quarantine.

Or perhaps "the one we sequenced and so identified for the greater global good (and them)"

This is where personal sympathy and pandemic logic cross over each other. People going to the beach, staying in a hotel, social distancing, wearing masks, remains lower risk than meeting friends / family in their homes, without social distancing, without masks. Now if everyone concerned, including children, has been given both vaccines the risk is very low. But I'm not sure it's as low as lying on a beach.

Yes, the one that the government was aware of for quite some time before sounding the alarm, allowing it to spread uncontrolled within the UK and to the rest of the world. I understand that mistakes will be made in unprecedented situations like this, but the lack of accountability in No 10 is shocking.

That is a fair point and going to a resort and interacting only within your household is very low risk indeed. I guess what I was trying to get at is that opening up to popular holiday countries like Spain etc would unleash travelling en masse in the way that opening up to less popular destinations (many of whom have banned UK nationals anyway) probably wouldn't.

Daily data:

Cases 7,742 (5,683 last Monday)
Deaths 3 (1)
People vaccinated up to and including 13 June 2021:
First dose: 41,698,429
Second dose: 29,973,779

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 45.5% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 11.9%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 9.4 today.

But going to see your family in Covid ravaged areas of the UK is currently allowed without any testing, PLFs etc etc.
The logic is spot on but the rules really don’t follow the logic. Travel flows from MAN-LHR are far more risky than the likes of MLA-LHR yet the riskier journey carries no restrictions. These travel rules are an utter nonsense and the only science which is guiding them is political.

If there was any science behind the restrictions then we wouldn’t still be seeing multiple widebodies land everyday at LHR full of deadly delta variant spewing vectors.

There's quite a bit of virtue signalling supporting the lockdown extension.

Perhaps spare a thought for the struggling small business owners who now face bankruptcy and their life's work ruined.

And millions of jobs about to go or at risk of being lost across various sectors.

It's not virtue signalling - it's expressing what the majority of people honestly feel. As mentioned above, for the majority of people, the restrictions aren't that bad, so another 4 weeks is neither here nor there.