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-   -   Local lockdowns in the UK (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/u-k-ireland/2025295-local-lockdowns-uk.html)

LGWClosedAgain Mar 30, 2021 7:58 am


Originally Posted by HB7 (Post 33137796)
Is the number 55%? That seems really low. According to the economist, they are saying 93% first dose and 84% second dose. https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-the-world

I'm not disputing your numbers - I'm just trying to understand - is the economist's numbers wrong?

If the actual numbers are much lower, that is good news because it means the vaccine effect overall is seen sooner.

That page must have incorrect data, the Israeli population is around 9.3M and that page shows 9.92m doses administered which I believe is the correct number but would make it impossible for 93% of the population to have the first dose and the 84% to have the second dose. The numbers just don’t add up.

On the positive side, the Israeli case positivity rate has now crossed below 1%.

HB7 Mar 30, 2021 7:58 am


Originally Posted by fransknorge (Post 33137616)
Effect of vaccination is purely on hospital so far.

It seems like the vaccination has also had an effect on deaths and cases as well. There have been two studies in the UK so far pointing to the effectiveness of vaccines on transmission, and a study yesterday from the US on Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. It is true that lockdown has by far and away been the main factor on case numbers - but vaccines have had something to do with it according to the data, or at least have begun to.

In any case, we won't really see the transmission effect till lockdown has been completely eased in June/July.

HB7 Mar 30, 2021 7:59 am


Originally Posted by LGWClosedAgain (Post 33137825)
That page must have incorrect data, the Israeli population is around 9.3M and that page shows 9.92m doses administered which I believe is the correct number but would make it impossible for 93% of the population to have the first dose and the 84% to have the second dose. The numbers just don’t add up.

On the positive side, the Israeli case positivity rate has now crossed below 1%.

Ah yes good point. Oh well - there goes my Economist subscription lol.

Misco60 Mar 30, 2021 8:09 am


Originally Posted by LGWClosedAgain (Post 33137825)
That page must have incorrect data, the Israeli population is around 9.3M and that page shows 9.92m doses administered which I believe is the correct number but would make it impossible for 93% of the population to have the first dose and the 84% to have the second dose. The numbers just don’t add up.


Originally Posted by HB7 (Post 33137833)
Ah yes good point. Oh well - there goes my Economist subscription lol.

The Economist graphic is quite clearly labelled "Adults with first dose" and "Adults with second dose".

PxC Mar 30, 2021 8:14 am

SkyNews reporting 54% of people now have antibodies in the U.K. Considering that includes (I think) under 18s and there will likely be some delay after vaccination before antibodies show up, we should get teasingly close to the 70% potential herd threshold. Israel’s figures plummeting when just over 50% have had first doses could show what we can enjoy soon?

In saying that, if vaccines are only 50% effective at reducing transmission, doesn’t that mean 140% would need to be vaccinated for herd?

HB7 Mar 30, 2021 8:25 am

Data out of the US overnight about the effectiveness of pfizer and moderna at preventing transmission shows 80% after 1 dose and 90% after two doses. I think the UK got it right in terms of the 12-week gap. However, I'm starting to think that maybe we should give the whole population 1 jab only first and began second jabs after everyone has been vaccinated. It would be interesting to see what the level of protection at approx 11 weeks is after one dose only.

HB7 Mar 30, 2021 8:30 am

Just a point of clarification. Can we now travel within England freely? Even on a plane? Can I fly from Manchester to London as an example? Because there are no restrictions on how far we can travel correct?

ahmetdouas Mar 30, 2021 8:34 am


Originally Posted by HB7 (Post 33137926)
Just a point of clarification. Can we now travel within England freely? Even on a plane? Can I fly from Manchester to London as an example? Because there are no restrictions on how far we can travel correct?

Yes. They advise you to avoid travel if possible, but legally nothing to stop you.

HB7 Mar 30, 2021 8:38 am


Originally Posted by ahmetdouas (Post 33137936)
Yes. They advise you to avoid travel if possible, but legally nothing to stop you.

Any England only TP runs? lol

alex67500 Mar 30, 2021 8:42 am


Originally Posted by HB7 (Post 33137949)
Any England only TP runs? lol

MAN and NCL, but probably not priced for TP runs. Note that you only get TPs on a specific segment once a day (if you fly 2 returns to NCL, you'll only get credited once).

Also, it is still against the regulations to stay away from home, until 12th April at least. But you'd be within your legal rights to travel back and forth if you wanted to.

HB7 Mar 30, 2021 8:46 am


Originally Posted by alex67500 (Post 33137959)
MAN and NCL, but probably not priced for TP runs. Note that you only get TPs on a specific segment once a day (if you fly 2 returns to NCL, you'll only get credited once).

Also, it is still against the regulations to stay away from home, until 12th April at least. But you'd be within your legal rights to travel back and forth if you wanted to.

Yeh a bit too pricy I realise.

KSVVZ2015 Mar 30, 2021 8:49 am


Originally Posted by alex67500 (Post 33137959)
MAN and NCL, but probably not priced for TP runs. Note that you only get TPs on a specific segment once a day (if you fly 2 returns to NCL, you'll only get credited once).

Now that's a rule I didn't know about!!

LGWClosedAgain Mar 30, 2021 9:22 am


Originally Posted by PxC (Post 33137875)
SkyNews reporting 54% of people now have antibodies in the U.K. Considering that includes (I think) under 18s and there will likely be some delay after vaccination before antibodies show up, we should get teasingly close to the 70% potential herd threshold. Israel’s figures plummeting when just over 50% have had first doses could show what we can enjoy soon?

In saying that, if vaccines are only 50% effective at reducing transmission, doesn’t that mean 140% would need to be vaccinated for herd?

I don't want to sound like the doomsday pair that frequent the TV but Israel is using 100% pfizer, giving second doses as advised and now has 50% fully vaccinated. The UK is using AZ more than pfizer, which from the studies has a lower efficacy and is giving the second dose 12 weeks apart. I'm not saying we won't be as successful as Israel, I'm just saying we're not using the same recipe.

ahmetdouas Mar 30, 2021 9:25 am


Originally Posted by alex67500 (Post 33137959)
MAN and NCL, but probably not priced for TP runs. Note that you only get TPs on a specific segment once a day (if you fly 2 returns to NCL, you'll only get credited once).

Also, it is still against the regulations to stay away from home, until 12th April at least. But you'd be within your legal rights to travel back and forth if you wanted to.

Yes to skirt that rule just never go to sleep =)

KARFA Mar 30, 2021 9:26 am


Originally Posted by KSVVZ2015 (Post 33137972)
Now that's a rule I didn't know about!!

Yes, I think the problem is any duplicates of the same route on the same day won't automatically credit to BAEC, only the first one will. You would have to make a claim for the duplicates but you would get it.


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