bosman

[QUOTE=BonnieO;27205608]The problem with your nickels and dimes analysis is that MR doesn't earn 10 nickels and SPG earn 2 dimes. On the conversion angle MR earns 10 dimes and SPG earns 2 dimes. How would that be a slap in the face of MR loyalist if SPG were to receive a fair conversion.

Sorry, I can't figure out what you're trying to say. My point was that MR and SPG points are currently worth different amounts; with SPG worth more than MR. So people can't expect/demand a conversion ratio just off of the amount of points earned per dollar spent.

I honestly don't understand what you're point is in the bolded section. How did MR "nickels" become "dimes" in your example?

Rexkramer

I sense a merger approval in the near future.

MSPeconomist

Do you want ten SNAs to use during 2017?

tjk1976

Reading all of the speculation about how they might convert the value of SPG points into MR points reminds me of some sage advice I once received: The optimal number of points / miles to have in any rewards program is ZERO. Rewards miles / points rarely, if ever, go up in value, so having zero points (or as close to zero as possible) means you used them when they were at their most valuable.

eajusa

That's just what I did. Converted to AA miles during the extra 20% promotion.

username

I think the question is which program do you trust more to not devalue and how many points you have [to bet].

365RoadWarrior

Thanks, MSPeconomist. Good advice for others who may be in my situation. I've never used an SNA. I don't like suites, but that's just me.

MSPeconomist

Then are any of the other Plat50 choices useful to you?

Kagehitokiri

and may be more franchise deals (or transfers) to chinese to come
some of the terms of deals might be especially/unusually favorable

365RoadWarrior, what were the benefits that you found valuable?

Productivity

Given AA recently devalued, I'd think it would be more likely that AA would hold for a while as opposed to a guaranteed opportunity for devaluation (the merger).

Visconti

The larger issue isn't even the devaluation, but the lack of awards availability. In the past, AA offered an excellent value on their F awards to LHR/Europe and transcons for 62.5K and 32.5K respectively. Now, I can't even find availability, even with tons of Miles. Sure, BA is available, but who wants to pay the fuel charge into LHR, if one can avoid it?

All is well if AA opens up awards availability, but if they don't, transferred miles will have limited use. Sure, one can redeem a bunch of 25K pseudo F flights to ORD, I guess.

spgplat21

That made me nervous too. Availability with AA miles to certain destinations has become almost impossible unless you want to fly coach or can plan 11 months out. I was going to credit a bunch of miles to AA for the bonus, but decided to move them to Asiana instead for star alliance flights to Europe. I still might move some more to JAL for an Asia trip or i may just keep them in SPG and roll the dice.

uncommonsensical

thru N&F i moved a fair # of miles to Alaska literally right before their overnight zero warning massacre. the value is still there for CA flights, but those are experiencing unexplained artificial blocks of late. i don't trust any airline as far as i can throw them- and i can't throw an airliner! i'm still north of 1mm SPG points and view the China delay as buying me a bit more time. Arne's little trip to China makes me think the clock is about to start ticking.

i am also strongly considering moving some to JAL- there is value to be had there and their non alliance deals (like Bangkok Airways) offer outsized value especially via a N&F transfer. the AA bonus was tempting, but AA miles are worth considerably less than UA or AK miles given their routing rules and RIDICULOUS no stopover nonsense. the 20% bonus was negated by this imo. will have to take a look at Asiana- haven't looked at them since their last change.

i know i am in the minority, but i view certain hotel points as more valuable than air except for last minute (my norm) travel. last minute domestic travel on UA award is a great deal due to availability vs last minute ticket prices- as is last minute CA J/F using AA/AK. as AA ExP, buying cheap fares and using SWU's has been incredible value- that ended on the earn side in July and i will not meet $ spend to maintain it after next year.

my point... hotel points are, IME, more predictable both in terms of ease to redeem and value for points (caveat: NOT for US redemptions- which i rarely do). i was in a suite several times this year in CNX in a full hotel with regular rooms priced north of 8000 baht- and i was staying (booked before the move to Cat 3) for 3000/4000 points a night. the suites were over 13,000b some nights. consider my cpp and PLT benefits and they were paying me to stay there!

i don't trust MAR and i do not care for their hotels- i mourn the end of SPG. my plan was to liquidate all but 2-300,000 points by early next year with a lot gone to N&F. i just don't see that making sense given the death spiral to US based airline FF programs. i can wake up tomorrow with a 50%+ airline mile devaluation, i don't see the same risk in my SPG points right now.. heck, i've even added over 200k points to my account the past couple months thru some good opportunities at less than .005/point (impossible to pass up at that rate of acquisition).

so, yeah.... i am still very negative on the merger, but, in contrast to my thinking when MAR bid, i view the risk of my SPG points losing value overnight as much less likely than other currencies (airline) i could convert them to. so... bullish short term, but still bearish long term on SPG points.

someone really needs to create a derivatives market for points/miles so we can properly hedge these 'currencies'! granted, it would be a one way trade for members. imagine the value of AK miles puts the morning of the great Emirates deval!!!!!!

JK

Marriott's acquisition of Starwood receives antitrust approval in China; deal expected to close 23-Sep before market open

• Marriott and Starwood announced their merger transaction has received approval from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM). As this was the last regulatory approval required to complete the merger, Marriott and Starwood are now able to proceed with closing the transaction and expect the transaction to be completed before the market opens on 23-Sep, pending satisfaction of customary closing requirements.
• Assuming that the transaction closes as expected, former Starwood shareholders will be entitled to receive Marriott's quarterly cash dividend of 30 cents ($0.30) per share of Marriott common stock that Marriott's board declared on 13-Sep-16 and which is payable to all Marriott shareholders of record at the close of business on 23-Sep-16. In that case, Starwood's former public shareholders will not receive the dividend declared by Starwood's board on 13-Sep-16. The dividend to Marriott shareholders, including the former Starwood shareholders, will be paid on 30-Sep-16.

MSPeconomist

How much would the Starwood dividend have been to Starwood shareholders?