This is just for sh*ts and giggles at this point and obviously entertaining as misery loves company, but if every TPS, RI, CY, FI. 4points, etc went down 5,000 points and every FS to Resort went up, he would not be lying.... Without category lists, these words are meaningless. If he can state this, then the math/lists are already in place, what's the holdup other than the news isn't as rosy as they want us to believe, thats marketing 101 !

And yes, CPRich case is made, there is nothing left to do but smile, smile, smile Nothing's gonna bring it back...

It's easy to say that when you have so many limited-service properties.

I wouldn't be surprised if Marriott lowers or caps Courtyard at a certain category, basically making Courtyard properties more attractive for award-redemption than a full-service hotel. Perhaps that's how they convinced Courtyard owners and franchisees to go along with a breakfast benefit for top-level elites.

There are some Courtyard properties in Japan, Latin America and Southeast Asia that would make a great value and rival full-service Marriott, Sheraton, Delta or Renaissance properties in North America.

Keep drinking the Marriott Kool Aid!

There is no way Marriott is going to drop resorts in Hawaii or prime redemption hotels in London, NYC, or Paris that are currently Category 9 down to Category 6. Maybe a few RIs and CYs in places like Anaheim or Virginia Beach drop to a Category 6, but rest assured resorts in Hawaii and prime hotels in London, NYC and Paris will briefly become Category 7 in August and will then move up to a Category 8 when that is announced next year. Even if these hotels remain at a Category 7 for a year or two, it is still a massive devaluation! 11% more points for a stay at the Marriott Marquis NYC in January (assuming that qualifies as off-season), and a 55% increase in the number of points required for a stay at a resort in Hawaii during peak season or the Marriott Marquis in NYC during in the fall!

In comparison to the current awards categories, the points required to stay at hotels in Categories 5 - 7 will increase dramatically! From 40% more points for a standard redemption at a Category 5 (35,000 points beginning in August) to 100% more points for a peak redemption at a Category 7 (70,000 points beginning in 2019)! Even if just 50% of the hotels currently classified in Categories 5 - 7 remain after August, that is still a pretty significant change in the number of points required for a single award night and a massive devaluation in my book!


Regards,

RIP...

That's a false equivalence because the 4,080 figure includes so many limited-service properties that could never legitimately command more than a category 3/4 award-redemption.

The only concern to me on that regard is this,

If it's a limit per transaction or a daily limit, I'm fine because it's similar to current SPG limit. However, if it's an quarterly or annual limit or even a lifetime limit, I'm doomed. If it's a monthly limit, I think I can manage.

Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but from the way I see it, I think at least majority of MR Cat 8-9 properties wouldn't be end up in Unified Cat 8. They'll probably go to Unified Cat 6 and the Unified Cat 8 will be populated by SPG Cat 7 and RC Cat 5 properties. Let's compare SPG Cat 7 and MR Cat 9. The following is SPG Cat 7 properties(30-35k Starpoint which is equivalent of 90-105k MR/Unified point), and some of those are not even 30-35K Starpoint properties since they're all suites properties (i.e. usually cost 60-140k Starpoint or 180-420k MR/Unified point).

Of course, there are some cheapo where you can occasionally find below-$300/night rate, but significant portion of them have usual starting rate of $1-2k/night, or at least closer to $1k than lots of Marriott/Renaissances on MR Cat 9. On the other hand, MR Cat 9 includes the following.

Courtyard by Marriott Anaheim Theme Park Entrance
Courtyard by Marriott Key West Waterfront
Fairfield Inn & Suites Key West
Residence Inn St. Petersburg Treasure Island
Fairfield Inn & Suites Ocean City
Residence Inn Ocean City

and they wouldn't put these properties right next to the SPG Cat 7 properties, if they have any kind of conscious. Of course these are the extreme example but the situation is not that different on the regular side of MR Cat 9. If you do the city by city comparison, they're usually 1-2 notch below to SPG Cat 7 properties. Hence, Unified Cat 6 is the place where they're belong. Maybe some of them could be end up in Unified Cat 7 or even Cat 8, but moving the most of MR Cat 9 properties to Unified Cat 8? I would say that's too malicious, even by the corporate standards. And for the peak rate, in SPG, they don't do malicious peak rate something like all-year-round except for 1-2 weeks/y. It's more like one week here, one month there thing, thus not a lot of properties assign more than a quarter as a peak season.

Maybe It's just wishful thinking and they indeed do have a malicious intent. But if you think "maliciously moving most of MR Cat 9 properties to Unified Cat 8" is something inevitable or sure thing to do, I would say it's probably a reflection of yourself rather than the most plausible prediction, since most people have a tendency to presume that other people(i.e. Marriott executives) will think and act just like the way they do.

Devaluation definitely coming around the corner. I've been at this game too long to think otherwise. ADRs are climbing, occupancy rates are climbing. Hotels aren't needing to entice travelers to stay with them.

They've essentially already done this with peak / off-peak awards on this chart. One of the main benefits of using Marriott points was during higher-price times. The new chart shows that they're going to be narrowing down that loophole.

The only positive I see in this is that we're getting enough notice to cash out points at the current rates. I don't think it's going to be a huge devaluation, but it definitely will be a positive step for hoteliers and a negative one for customers.

Pinniped, I have no issues with Hyatt. I've even figured out how to game them to get 'Diamond Lite' status by doing an MLife match to Explorer. That gives me pretty much everything that Globalist would give me for 4 stays per year. That works for me; 55/60 nights a year is too much of a commitment for their small footprint. I've done Hilton, Marriott and Starwood as standalone programs in different years; I've never been able to use Hyatt as a standalone program (I tried) - I had to rely on my MR LTP and SPG LTG on several occasions when I was doing Hyatt as a 25 stay Diamond. It was simply impossible to only rely on Hyatt. Even at that, I'd pass up more than a few better located hotels to stay at a Hyatt - some of those were HH or HP instead of a full service hotel with another brand in order to reach 25 stays. At about the same daily rate.

I'll continue to use Hyatt. For my credit card night, cash+points, and points burn nights. And I'll use my club level certs every time I stay there, since it will be 4 or less times per year. But Hyatt is not a standalone hotel program for almost all travelers.

Definitely speculation but since we saw Marriott already tilt its hotels up in the category changes earlier this year (I luckily had a reservation at one of them and was honored at the earlier rates) I do feel that they will continue to trend upwards much faster than expected. Maybe not quite as fast as Hilton (I still remember AXON 4 night awards in Hawaii, now I think I'd spend at least 2, maybe 3x as many points) but a definite up tick. Like I tell anyone else, I don't leave miles or points as a savings account. I use them as soon as reasonably possible, when I can get a decent value. I am continuing that, by redeeming points now when I can.

Why is this labeled "SPECULATION"?

It is 100% certain even by Marriott's own admission.

The only question left is the choice of the preceding adjective: HORRIFIC, MASSIVE, EXPLOSIVE, UNREAL or HORRENDOUS

Because there is no other word that is appropriate hen you go from 45k per night to 95k per night for the same room with the same points.

Please link to any single piece of data where one specific property has a higher points requirement under the new points structure vs. today.

Again, what property is going from 45K to 95K for the same room? As no definition of what properties will fall into what categories is available, I'll be fascinated to see how this data exists.

There's not even a 95K amount on the chart, so how will any room be 95K per night, regardless of previous rate?

I have no clue what that has to do with the question at all.

Never fear, CPRich; I checked and it turns out the caloric value of words is zero, so you'll be gaining no weight from the I-too-will-bet massive intake of same come this Summertime

I'm open for betting.

Percentage increase in total points needed to redeem 1 night at every MR property worldwide at the new category and standard redemption levels over the total points needed to redeem 1 night at every MR property worldwide at their current category and redemption levels.

That's how I define valuation impact of the entire program.

Not points for some random level identifier ("Category 6" today vs. "Category 6" tomorrow, which is meaningless when every property is re-categorized). Not the increase in only the properties that went up. Program-wide.

The opinion seems to be 40, 60, 111%. Who's open to a wager?

I agree. Moderators should remove "speculation" from the thread title, especially since the rest of the thread title is phrased as a question.