SPECULATION: Is a Points Devaluation Coming In August?
Apr 24, 2018, 11:39 am
#136
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: YVR
Posts: 1,847
20,000 Starpoints maps perfectly to 60,000 new Points (new Category 7), so it's possible that the point requirements will effectively stay the same.
It's also possible that the Sheraton Maui will go down. The Ritz-Carlton, Kapalua, will also be Category 7, because Category 7 is the highest category for the rest of 2018. It would be strange for the Sheraton Maui to require as many new Points as the Ritz-Carlton, Kapalua.
The Marriott Wailea Beach Resort on Maui is currently 40,000 Rewards Points. There is not a new August 2018 category at that level, so the Marriott Wailea will have to go up or down.
I would not rely on anyone's guesses here to predict the future. Unlike a few people here, I don't expect a "massive devaluation" in August 2018. In fact, I think Marriott will try to delight us with the new category assignments -- but that ongoing category creep in future years will slowly take its toll over time (as it has in past years).
Why not book now on Maui, and then cancel and rebook if you see something better when the new requirements are released?
It's also possible that the Sheraton Maui will go down. The Ritz-Carlton, Kapalua, will also be Category 7, because Category 7 is the highest category for the rest of 2018. It would be strange for the Sheraton Maui to require as many new Points as the Ritz-Carlton, Kapalua.
The Marriott Wailea Beach Resort on Maui is currently 40,000 Rewards Points. There is not a new August 2018 category at that level, so the Marriott Wailea will have to go up or down.
I would not rely on anyone's guesses here to predict the future. Unlike a few people here, I don't expect a "massive devaluation" in August 2018. In fact, I think Marriott will try to delight us with the new category assignments -- but that ongoing category creep in future years will slowly take its toll over time (as it has in past years).
Why not book now on Maui, and then cancel and rebook if you see something better when the new requirements are released?
Guaranteed this resort is going up... waaay up. I could see 60K standard to match the Sheraton - and the Sheraton going down one category.
Book as much as you can now...and book it on the Marriott site so you don't have to use up your points right away.
I've got a few trips coming up this year, and I have reservations booked for all of them. I'm even considering reservations for next March break!!!
Apr 24, 2018, 12:15 pm
#137
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 171
I just stayed 6 nights at the Wailea Beach Resort during March break on points and that has to be one of the best deals going.
Guaranteed this resort is going up... waaay up. I could see 60K standard to match the Sheraton - and the Sheraton going down one category.
Book as much as you can now...and book it on the Marriott site so you don't have to use up your points right away.
I've got a few trips coming up this year, and I have reservations booked for all of them. I'm even considering reservations for next March break!!!
Guaranteed this resort is going up... waaay up. I could see 60K standard to match the Sheraton - and the Sheraton going down one category.
Book as much as you can now...and book it on the Marriott site so you don't have to use up your points right away.
I've got a few trips coming up this year, and I have reservations booked for all of them. I'm even considering reservations for next March break!!!
Apr 24, 2018, 12:24 pm
#138
Join Date: May 2002
Programs: AAdvantage Platinum, United Silver, Marriott Titanium Elite
Posts: 2,276
I just stayed 6 nights at the Wailea Beach Resort during March break on points and that has to be one of the best deals going.
Guaranteed this resort is going up... waaay up. I could see 60K standard to match the Sheraton - and the Sheraton going down one category.
Book as much as you can now...and book it on the Marriott site so you don't have to use up your points right away.
I've got a few trips coming up this year, and I have reservations booked for all of them. I'm even considering reservations for next March break!!!
Guaranteed this resort is going up... waaay up. I could see 60K standard to match the Sheraton - and the Sheraton going down one category.
Book as much as you can now...and book it on the Marriott site so you don't have to use up your points right away.
I've got a few trips coming up this year, and I have reservations booked for all of them. I'm even considering reservations for next March break!!!
The Marriott Wailea Beach Resort was untouched during the 2018 Marriott Rewards category changes. Marriott Rewards kept it at Category 8 (40,000). It could have easily been moved upward to Category 9 (45,000), but that didn't happen.
There is no category that corresponds to 40,000 points on the New (August 2018) Free Night Award Chart. The Marriott Wailea Beach Resort will either go down to new Category 5 (35,000) or up to new Category 6 (50,000). Either is possible. My guess is that Category 5 (35,000) is slightly more likely, but it could be either one.
The chance of it going to new Category 7 (60,000) -- the category for the top Ritz-Carltons and other top luxury properties in August 2018 -- is very low.
Apr 24, 2018, 12:34 pm
#139
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Thousand Oaks, Ca., USA
Programs: AA Lifetime Plat; Bonvoy Titanium Lifetime Elite;Hyatt Globalist; HHonors Diamond; United Silver
Posts: 8,315
The devaluation will happen in 2020. Even without the merger, they needed more Marriott categories or higher point requirements.
so many courtyards have went from cat 4 to cat 5 to cat 6 over the last few years-it was already putting pressure on Cat 9s in the current MR grouping to maintain a reasonable price differential between courtyards and JW London, Essex House, etc.
so many courtyards have went from cat 4 to cat 5 to cat 6 over the last few years-it was already putting pressure on Cat 9s in the current MR grouping to maintain a reasonable price differential between courtyards and JW London, Essex House, etc.
Apr 24, 2018, 1:18 pm
#140
Suspended
Join Date: Jun 2005
Programs: Delta Diamond, Marriott Ambassador & Lifetime Titanium, Hertz President's Circle, United Silver
Posts: 6,334
The devaluation will happen in 2020. Even without the merger, they needed more Marriott categories or higher point requirements.
so many courtyards have went from cat 4 to cat 5 to cat 6 over the last few years-it was already putting pressure on Cat 9s in the current MR grouping to maintain a reasonable price differential between courtyards and JW London, Essex House, etc.
so many courtyards have went from cat 4 to cat 5 to cat 6 over the last few years-it was already putting pressure on Cat 9s in the current MR grouping to maintain a reasonable price differential between courtyards and JW London, Essex House, etc.
To the best of my knowledge, Marriott has not denied that owners or management of individual properties can influence which category a property gets classified.
I suspect my annual redemption of points for 7 nights at the J.W. Marriott Grosvenor House in London has come to an end.
What's worse is almost all of the London hotels are presently priced the same, despite major differences between the quality of the properties and the services or amenities offered. One of the few full-service properties that is a good value under the current award-redemption chart is the Marriott Maida Vale.
I'd be willing to bet that the J.W. Marriott Grosvenor House, Edition, Marriott County Hall, Marriott Park Lane, Blakes Hotel (Design), Le Méridien Piccadilly, Park Tower Luxury Collection, The Wellesley Knightsbridge Luxury Collection, The Westbury Luxury Collection, W Leicester Square, and the Sheraton Grand Park Lane will be either category 7 or category 8. The only ones that could be a category 5 are the Sheraton Grand Park Lane and Le Méridien Piccadilly.
Apr 24, 2018, 5:46 pm
#141
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Southern California, USA
Programs: Marriott Ambassador and LTT, UA Plat/LT Gold, AA Gold
Posts: 8,764
The devaluation will happen in 2020. Even without the merger, they needed more Marriott categories or higher point requirements.
so many courtyards have went from cat 4 to cat 5 to cat 6 over the last few years-it was already putting pressure on Cat 9s in the current MR grouping to maintain a reasonable price differential between courtyards and JW London, Essex House, etc.
so many courtyards have went from cat 4 to cat 5 to cat 6 over the last few years-it was already putting pressure on Cat 9s in the current MR grouping to maintain a reasonable price differential between courtyards and JW London, Essex House, etc.
Marriott Cat 4 hotels at 20k points going to Cat 6 hotels at 30k points turns out to be pretty minimally different when you consider SPG points would make that 6.7k and 10k. Those equate to SPG Cat 3 and 4.
Marriott Cat 8 and 9 hotels going for 40k and 45K seem like inexpensive options when you pare them against SPG hotels/points. The SPG equivalent of 13.3k and 15k equate to between SPG Cat 4-5.
The top of the Marriott award chart didn’t even come close to broaching the top tiers of the SPG award chart. The bottom of the RC award chart doesn’t come close, either. Tier 1 RC hotel award compare with MR Cat 5 award, after all...but compare with SPG Cat 4 awards.
The top of the RC award chart does come closer. A Tier 5 hotel award at 70k comes close to SPG Cat 6. But nowhere near SPG Cat 7.
This is part of the reason why fears of devaluation are overblown. Marriott elites aren’t used to properties in SPG Cat 6 and 7 that typically command much higher ADRs and therefore need to command higher award prices. The reset will push a lot of Marriott properties lower on the new Cat 1-8 scale than was true in the older Cat 1-9 scale.
Last edited by bhrubin; Apr 24, 2018 at 5:57 pm
Apr 25, 2018, 8:33 am
#142
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: YVR
Posts: 1,847
You guarantee that the Marriott Wailea Beach Resort on Maui is going from 40,000 Rewards Points to 60,000 points in August? That would be a 50% increase!
The Marriott Wailea Beach Resort was untouched during the 2018 Marriott Rewards category changes. Marriott Rewards kept it at Category 8 (40,000). It could have easily been moved upward to Category 9 (45,000), but that didn't happen.
There is no category that corresponds to 40,000 points on the New (August 2018) Free Night Award Chart. The Marriott Wailea Beach Resort will either go down to new Category 5 (35,000) or up to new Category 6 (50,000). Either is possible. My guess is that Category 5 (35,000) is slightly more likely, but it could be either one.
The chance of it going to new Category 7 (60,000) -- the category for the top Ritz-Carltons and other top luxury properties in August 2018 -- is very low.
The Marriott Wailea Beach Resort was untouched during the 2018 Marriott Rewards category changes. Marriott Rewards kept it at Category 8 (40,000). It could have easily been moved upward to Category 9 (45,000), but that didn't happen.
There is no category that corresponds to 40,000 points on the New (August 2018) Free Night Award Chart. The Marriott Wailea Beach Resort will either go down to new Category 5 (35,000) or up to new Category 6 (50,000). Either is possible. My guess is that Category 5 (35,000) is slightly more likely, but it could be either one.
The chance of it going to new Category 7 (60,000) -- the category for the top Ritz-Carltons and other top luxury properties in August 2018 -- is very low.
Of course, there's no guarantees in the world, so my poor choice of words. I'm convinced it's going up! At the very least, a cat 6. It will be interesting to see how it all works out in the end.
Apr 25, 2018, 9:53 am
#143
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: SFO
Posts: 3,881
Actually, the fact is that Marriott points were worth so little relative to Hyatt and SPG points that the old award chart and concomitant award categories give the illusion that Marriott Category 8 and 9 hotels are more premium and luxe than they actually are.
Marriott Cat 4 hotels at 20k points going to Cat 6 hotels at 30k points turns out to be pretty minimally different when you consider SPG points would make that 6.7k and 10k. Those equate to SPG Cat 3 and 4.
Marriott Cat 8 and 9 hotels going for 40k and 45K seem like inexpensive options when you pare them against SPG hotels/points. The SPG equivalent of 13.3k and 15k equate to between SPG Cat 4-5.
The top of the Marriott award chart didn’t even come close to broaching the top tiers of the SPG award chart. The bottom of the RC award chart doesn’t come close, either. Tier 1 RC hotel award compare with MR Cat 5 award, after all...but compare with SPG Cat 4 awards.
The top of the RC award chart does come closer. A Tier 5 hotel award at 70k comes close to SPG Cat 6. But nowhere near SPG Cat 7.
This is part of the reason why fears of devaluation are overblown. Marriott elites aren’t used to properties in SPG Cat 6 and 7 that typically command much higher ADRs and therefore need to command higher award prices. The reset will push a lot of Marriott properties lower on the new Cat 1-8 scale than was true in the older Cat 1-9 scale.
Apr 25, 2018, 3:16 pm
#144
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: coastal Croatia
Programs: BAEC Gold, M&M Senator
Posts: 2,181
Actually, the fact is that Marriott points were worth so little relative to Hyatt and SPG points that the old award chart and concomitant award categories give the illusion that Marriott Category 8 and 9 hotels are more premium and luxe than they actually are.
Marriott Cat 4 hotels at 20k points going to Cat 6 hotels at 30k points turns out to be pretty minimally different when you consider SPG points would make that 6.7k and 10k. Those equate to SPG Cat 3 and 4.
Marriott Cat 8 and 9 hotels going for 40k and 45K seem like inexpensive options when you pare them against SPG hotels/points. The SPG equivalent of 13.3k and 15k equate to between SPG Cat 4-5.
The top of the Marriott award chart didn’t even come close to broaching the top tiers of the SPG award chart. The bottom of the RC award chart doesn’t come close, either. Tier 1 RC hotel award compare with MR Cat 5 award, after all...but compare with SPG Cat 4 awards.
The top of the RC award chart does come closer. A Tier 5 hotel award at 70k comes close to SPG Cat 6. But nowhere near SPG Cat 7.
This is part of the reason why fears of devaluation are overblown. Marriott elites aren’t used to properties in SPG Cat 6 and 7 that typically command much higher ADRs and therefore need to command higher award prices. The reset will push a lot of Marriott properties lower on the new Cat 1-8 scale than was true in the older Cat 1-9 scale.
Apr 25, 2018, 3:58 pm
#145
Suspended
Join Date: Jun 2005
Programs: Delta Diamond, Marriott Ambassador & Lifetime Titanium, Hertz President's Circle, United Silver
Posts: 6,334
Apr 25, 2018, 6:20 pm
#146
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: SNA
Programs: Bonvoy LTTE/AMB, AmEx Plat, National EE, WN A-List, CLEAR+, Covid-19
Posts: 4,966
Apr 26, 2018, 1:34 am
#147
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Danville, CA, USA;
Programs: UA 1MM, WN CP, Marriott LT Plat, Hilton Gold, IC Plat
Posts: 15,721
Concur. Until now SPG elites have done quite well with: (1) the Gold status match (Gold easy to get on SPG) which = free breakfast and lounge access at Marriott (though not vice versa for Marriott Gold) (2) Great redemption rates on top Marriott properties with 1:3 conversion (3) Temp improved award rates at some SPG properties from August-December.Come 2019 and 2020 we will see rates jacked up to 95k for all of the expensive properties.
Jul 2, 2018, 9:07 pm
#148
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Pittsburgh
Programs: MR/SPG LT Titanium, AA LT PLT, UA SLV, Avis PreferredPlus
Posts: 31,008
25 to Cat 7
160 to Cat 6
242 - a majority - to Cat 5.
Far from those properties going up 107% (every 8 and 9 to an 8), they went up 2.7%
Last edited by CPRich; Jul 2, 2018 at 9:34 pm
Jul 2, 2018, 9:16 pm
#149
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: YVR to SEA
Posts: 2,535
Domes of elounda was the headliner devalued property, that's category 8
I also don't get how you say only one Marriott property ended up in category 7
I count 26 former category 8 and 9 in the new category 7, those are 60k standard
A simple sort by price difference and looking at the 15k plus will show it.
I also don't get how you say only one Marriott property ended up in category 7
I count 26 former category 8 and 9 in the new category 7, those are 60k standard
A simple sort by price difference and looking at the 15k plus will show it.
Last edited by crimsona; Jul 2, 2018 at 9:25 pm
Jul 2, 2018, 9:23 pm
#150
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Pittsburgh
Programs: MR/SPG LT Titanium, AA LT PLT, UA SLV, Avis PreferredPlus
Posts: 31,008
I collected all the data - it's really not that hard to collect 4000+ data points when the company provides a web page with 4000+ data points. Copy and paste.
All data was adjusted for SPG's 3:1 - it's really not that hard either.
If you take every single property and make it Peak every single day of the year, with post-2019 categories, and assumed every single SPG Cat 5+ property would be peak 0 days of the year, the increase is <15%, still way under the claims above.
You can send your check to Make-a-Wish Foundation, which provided wonderful services to my niece.
Or you can ignore the data and find a reason to back out. Your choice.
All data was adjusted for SPG's 3:1 - it's really not that hard either.
If you take every single property and make it Peak every single day of the year, with post-2019 categories, and assumed every single SPG Cat 5+ property would be peak 0 days of the year, the increase is <15%, still way under the claims above.
You can send your check to Make-a-Wish Foundation, which provided wonderful services to my niece.
Or you can ignore the data and find a reason to back out. Your choice.