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SPECULATION: Is a Points Devaluation Coming In August?

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SPECULATION: Is a Points Devaluation Coming In August?

 
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 1:00 am
  #46  
 
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Originally Posted by CrashDavis
All the bloggers are raving about all the additional points that will be earned in the new program. My gut tells me that we will need it once they come out with the hotel award categories.

It was brilliant marketing ploy for them to announce all these "positive" changes in April and then, later in August, reveal the hotels that will be in each hotel award category. I also see a large devaluation coming.
I agree 100%. It is the classic effect of governments causing inflation: costs go up, but earning goes up too, so the real effect of the inflation is that it massively devalues pre existing savings. Exactly what is going to happen to our point balances.

I am no Marriott employee (as I think some of the cheerleaders are), but I did have over 100 nights in the Marriott system last year, so I think I am qualified to have an opinion, and I view this new chart as a massive devaluation, obviously. I chuckle at the commenters who claim this isn't a devaluation because we haven't seen which hotels are in which category yet. I've seen enough Marriott devaluations in the last 3 years to know what is coming. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 6:37 am
  #47  
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Originally Posted by bhrubin


Bolding mine. This all seems a bit hysterical. Especially the bolded idea that any Renaissance anywhere, let alone in Paris, is ever going to be the same award pricing as the Prince de Galles Paris. Take a look at the cash prices and you’ll see how crazy that suggestion actually is.

This seems just as hysterical as the nonsensical suggestions by others herein that a room at the Marriott Marquis NYC is somehow going to eventually cost 100,000 points—as if somehow the Marriott Marquis is even remotely in the same league or price point as the St Regis or Chatwal or Gramercy Park or Ritz Carlton hotels in NYC. Again, the regular cash rates for these properties belie the nonsense of these suggestions.

Puh-lease. Please stop prognosticating doom because there will be some adjustment in award pricing. There always were going to be devaluations, especially for the more expensive hotels in the most expensive cities. It also turns out that Marriott recognizes the obvious fact that the best Starwood hotels in most of those cities are generally nicer than the best Marriott hotels in those same cities—hence the devaluation for Marriott points being more significant.
Except that's how it is presently. There is no transparent way in which categories are determined, but it certainly isn't based on brand nor cash price because there are presently lots of inferior properties that are category 8 or category 9 alongside the best Marriott, J.W. Marriott and Renaissance properties.
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 6:56 am
  #48  
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And it'll be yet another huge devaluation for those in the Marriott Vacationclub system, since they set the exchange rates for a timeshare week or destination points to marriott rewards points years ago and have not increased those... so its a horrible option to convert a timeshare week/points as you'd only be able to get a couple days at higher end hotel for your expensive timeshare week.
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 7:16 am
  #49  
 
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Originally Posted by bhrubin
Bolding mine. This all seems a bit hysterical. Especially the bolded idea that any Renaissance anywhere, let alone in Paris, is ever going to be the same award pricing as the Prince de Galles Paris. Take a look at the cash prices and you’ll see how crazy that suggestion actually is.

This seems just as hysterical as the nonsensical suggestions by others herein that a room at the Marriott Marquis NYC is somehow going to eventually cost 100,000 points—as if somehow the Marriott Marquis is even remotely in the same league or price point as the St Regis or Chatwal or Gramercy Park or Ritz Carlton hotels in NYC. Again, the regular cash rates for these properties belie the nonsense of these suggestions.


Yet take it down a slight notch in NYC where a CY, RI or FI is 40,000 and the JW/FS/REN is 45,000. MInd that very slight gap. Nothing left to do but go up, up, up. We've been hosed. Some realize it now, others will catch on later...
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Last edited by joshua362; Apr 17, 2018 at 7:24 am
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 7:30 am
  #50  
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Originally Posted by joshua362
Yet take it down a slight notch in NYC where a CY, RI or FI is 40,000 and the JW/FS/REN is 45,000. MInd that very slight gap. Nothing left to do but go up, up, up. We've been hosed. Some realize it now, others will catch on later...
This.
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 7:40 am
  #51  
 
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Originally Posted by CPRich
And you know this for sure based on .....?
Originally Posted by CPRich
Yes, if I assume everything will be massively devalued, based on nothing, then it's a massive devaluation!!!!

We don't need no stinkin' facts!!!
You know, your profile says you're a Flyertalk evangelist, but I think you're a Marriott evangelist. When was the last time — literally ever — that in Marriott's annual property reclassification, less than 80% of the property adjustments were not a category increase? You are blind if you don't see what's coming. Mark my words.

Originally Posted by FlyinHawaiian320
Common sense and logic. Why would Marriott downgrade a hotel that's a cat 8/9 (40/45k in old program) all the way down to a cat 5 (35k) in the new program. Their cat 8/9s are the highest categories they have (outside of RC tiers) so it stands to reason that they will at least be a 6, 7, or even an 8 in the new program.
Precisely this.
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 7:52 am
  #52  
 
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Originally Posted by CPRich


No one said a 40k would downgrade to 35k. But you’re saying a 40k would become a 90k, with no basis. Other than “common sense”.

I would claim a 40k will be a 40-45k, accounting for typical annual inflation.

You seem to either be forgetting that many tiers of RC’s, currently at much higher point levels than the top MR tiers, need to fit in, or are assuming that the top of both groups will suddenly be equalized. You really think a Tier 5 RC Central Park, currently 70k, will be the same as a current 40K generic NYC property?

What’s more “common sense” - proportionally align properties by their current relative value or completely skew the relationship by making all MR properties way more expensive and then make RC’s much much cheaper by putting them in the same buckets?
You're splitting hairs. You call it inflation, the majority of us (and rightfully so) call it devaluation. A 40k-45k hotel going to 50k means one is now paying an extra 5-10k in pts a night. If you stay just 4 nights, that's an extra 20k-40k a vacation needed at minimum. This doesn't even take into consideration the peak times in '19 which could potentially be in play for ~half a calendar year (as another poster pointed out in another thread).

I'd bet anything Marriott would counter this by saying members are now earning more points - which is technically true if you are PP - an increase of 2.5 pts per $ (17.5 vs 15) plus if you have one of the credit cards you get 6 pts vs 5, netting out to 3.5 extra pts per $ but it's possible the potential hikes would outweigh the added pts received.

I'm not trying to sound like a gloom and doom guy, but just calling it what it is. I think the new combined program has been overwhelmingly positive (new tiers, lifetime, etc.) but there is a big drawback that's coming somewhere and I think this is where it's going to be.
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 7:52 am
  #53  
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Originally Posted by hockeyinsider
Except that's how it is presently. There is no transparent way in which categories are determined, but it certainly isn't based on brand nor cash price because there are presently lots of inferior properties that are category 8 or category 9 alongside the best Marriott, J.W. Marriott and Renaissance properties.
Uh, perhaps that’s because the “best” Marriott, JW Marriott, and Renaissance properties in NYC aren’t quite as nice in the overall scheme as too many Marriott members believe. Those certainly don’t stack up remotely against the SPG 5* St Regis, Chatwal, and Gramercy Park hotels, nor the 5* RC hotels.

The categories are determined primarily based on average daily rate, though seasonal and other factors can also impact the determination. The demand for award rooms also can be a major factor. The average cash rates for many of the hotels you mention aren’t always so different—hence their categories are also similar. It has never had much to do with quality per se and more to do with pricing and award demand (i.e. supply and demand).

Also, current Category 8 and 9 Marriott properties cost 40,000 or 45,000 points. The NEW category 8 hotels will be the very best hotels in the entire Marriott portfolio—like the StR NYC, the RCs NYC, the Gramercy Park Hotel, the Chatwal. Those proper 5* luxury hotels will be the new Cat 8 hotels and cost 70,000-100,000 points in the new chart. The current Cat 8 and 9 hotels will become likely new chart Cat 6 hotels requiring 40,000-60,000 points depending on peak/standard/non-peak. Or maybe Cat 5 (less points). Hard to say for sure. But more likely Cat 6 in the new chart. Not that much more points necessarily.

Again, needless hysteria.

Last edited by bhrubin; Apr 17, 2018 at 8:17 am
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 8:04 am
  #54  
 
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Why Marriott should drop down the category for an Hotel ? Quite simple: demand
Marriott Novy Arbat in Moscow (Russia) went down from cat 6 to cat 5 to cat 4 now. Full Marriott property, very nice lounge, good location but... you need a visa and the actual situation (except work cup) is not really so Russian friendly, so less demand,
On the opposite side a Courtyard (yes, Courtyard) but located in Hawaii (Courtyard by Marriott King Kamehameha's Kona Beach Hotel) is cat 7, when I visited it was cat 5 (lucky me) then it moved to 6 and then to 7.
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 8:10 am
  #55  
 
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Well, I've got too many points in too many programs. My goal for the rest of 2018 is to spend as close to zero on travel and burn as many points as possible. It's not just Marriott and Starwood; it's everyone - hotels, airlines, even Hertz.
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 8:25 am
  #56  
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Originally Posted by Volvic
Why Marriott should drop down the category for an Hotel ? Quite simple: demand
Marriott Novy Arbat in Moscow (Russia) went down from cat 6 to cat 5 to cat 4 now. Full Marriott property, very nice lounge, good location but... you need a visa and the actual situation (except work cup) is not really so Russian friendly, so less demand,
On the opposite side a Courtyard (yes, Courtyard) but located in Hawaii (Courtyard by Marriott King Kamehameha's Kona Beach Hotel) is cat 7, when I visited it was cat 5 (lucky me) then it moved to 6 and then to 7.
To the best of my knowledge, Marriott has never been transparent about how it classifies hotels into categories.

For example, the Marriott in Troy, Michigan (Detroit suburb), was downgraded a category earlier this year. I don't think it was necessarily because of a drop in demand. Instead, I think it was because the hotel is not renovated. Actually, it's getting kind of shabby, especially compared to the nearby just-renovated Marriotts in Southfield and Auburn Hills/Bloomfield Hills/Pontiac. So I think there are several factors that come into play.

Meanwhile, the Marriott at Newark airport is a category 7 award-redemption. I don't for a second believe that a bunch of people are deeming points for a vacation hotel at the Newark airport. That's outrageous.

I don't think anyone outside of Marriott and property management truly know formula used to classify properties. As we've seen with Hyatt and other programs, properties can and do play games to manipulate award-redemptions in their favor.

Look at the J.W. Marriott Phu Quoc Emerald Bay Resort & Spa. They manipulated the system in their favor by giving out amenities and perks for a year after they opened to get folks to visit and redeem points. When the number of award-redemptions were enough to boost their category they eliminated some or all of the amenities and perks.

Marriott would be much better off having an award-redemption chart based on region, brand and hotel rating. Airport hotels shouldn't be above category 4 or category 5, for example. But at least, unlike Delta, the award-redemption chart has been published by Marriott. Now, Marriott needs to be transparent about what is "peak" and "off-peak."
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 8:38 am
  #57  
 
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Originally Posted by itsallgood
Going to Hyatt?
Hyatt has 5 hotels in all of the UK. The new Marriott has 5 hotels less than 2 Km from Buckingham Palace.
Hyatt has 8 hotels in all of France. The new Marriott has 8 hotels within 3 Km of the Eiffel Tower.
Hyatt has 1 hotel in all of Italy. The new Marriott has 61 hotels in Italy.

Hyatt is not the best standalone program due to its very small footprint.
Well, YMMV. Hyatt's smaller footprint may certainly matter to some travelers for specific reasons, but I think this is too often overstated. Hyatt does have a couple hotels in central London. Hyatt does have 4 hotels in the city of Paris (including one that is gotten with a mid-tier award category). As for other places (including in Europe), the recent integration of Oasis Homes into the rewards program puts Rome, Barcelona, and other destinations without a Hyatt hotel on the map for status earning and award earning/redemption, and gives more options in Paris, London, etc. I only need 1 good hotel in these cities to make me happy, -- Starriott having 4 additional options in Paris doesn't matter when I have four great choices with Hyatt already. Yes, the footprint matters to some, but not so much that I think Marriott can be dismissive of the competition.
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 8:47 am
  #58  
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Originally Posted by VisaW
When was the last time — literally ever — that in Marriott's annual property reclassification, less than 80% of the property adjustments were not a category increase? You are blind if you don't see what's coming. Mark my words.
Literally, that would be this year. Would you like me to get my historical files and do a year-by-year analysis when I get home. I have the data. Perhaps you can provide your numbers over the last 5 years to see if our raw data agrees. btw. 80% going up of 10% of properties changing means 92% of properties stayed the same or went down. % direction of properties that changes is meaningless. If all but 1 property was unchanged and 1 went up, would that be "100% devaluation"?

2015 is the worst year I have currently available. A net of 17.5% property increases.

Moving up a category is not "Massive Devaluation", all 45K properties becoming 90K, etc.

Do you not see the difference.
I would claim a 40k will be a 40-45k, accounting for typical annual inflation.
Fwiw, I have 1 MR night this year. Probably 20 over the last 3 years since hitting LT status. The vast, vast majority of my stays are with SPG, and I've been quite critical of MR's fake "No Blackouts" claims for quite some time. But again, don't let facts or logic get in your way of proclamations or personal attacks. (oooh, I'm a Marriott Evangelist - I feel so hurt....)

I've marked your words!! How bold!!!

My bet stands - "Will you bet that all current MR Cat 8 will be Cat 8 in the new program?". 3 month vacation from FT. Accepted? Open to anyone.

Last edited by CPRich; Apr 17, 2018 at 9:10 am
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 8:50 am
  #59  
 
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I messaged the Newport RI Marriott. I stay there every summer during the new port folk festival. I usually book on points early cause its about 550 a night. They are currently an 8 and will be staying an 8 in the new program. So this means it is going from 40k to 85k (most likely 100k during the summer). That means one week is aobut 350-400k. that does not seem really fair.

People talking about how the high end SPG properties will be in the higher range and the Marriott properties will drop. This does not look like its going happen.

Any suggestions on different programs.
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 8:54 am
  #60  
 
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On the flip side OMAAT points out that with the new chart available on August 1, but without seasonal prices or the higher category 8 yet, there may be some nice opportunities to redeem this year.

Maybe I'll finally make it to Bora Bora or the Maldives.

https://onemileatatime.boardingarea....s-coming-soon/
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