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SPECULATION: Is a Points Devaluation Coming In August?

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SPECULATION: Is a Points Devaluation Coming In August?

 
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 8:55 am
  #61  
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Originally Posted by jn in ca
I view this new chart as a massive devaluation, obviousl.
Yes, obviously you view it that way. But can you provide any sound logic as to why a list of numbers with no property identification or category listing means anything,

This sounds similar to the folks claiming SPG was being massively devalued because MR award levels were so much higher and their 20K SPG points could not longer get a decent luxury hotel but only a low end boondocks MR room. Without the exchange rate, it's a meaningless conversation.
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 8:57 am
  #62  
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Originally Posted by FlyinHawaiian320
You're splitting hairs. You call it inflation, the majority of us (and rightfully so) call it devaluation.
Sorry, but 40-45 going to 50 and 40-45 going to 90 is not "splitting hairs". It's a completely different action. I've already said there is annual inflation, but massive 50% devaluation is not going to happen. With which part of my statement don't you agree? Or do you consider moving from 45K-50K to be "massive devaluation", in which case justabout every program has "massive devaluation" every year or two and the phrase becomes meaningless.

btw, saying "no way 40 will go to 35" is pretty meaningless when not one said it would.

Last edited by CPRich; Apr 17, 2018 at 9:03 am
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 9:01 am
  #63  
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Originally Posted by Beltway2A
I've seen absolutely nothing to indicate that travel packages are going away. In fact, actual reporters indicate the opposite. Do you have a source?
Originally Posted by bhrubin
Travel packages aren’t going away. There are just some people freaking out needlessly.
Originally Posted by Safti
I was hoping travel packages aren't going anywhere. I've got a couple of them in my account that I wouldn't want to see disappear. There is nothing on the FAQ page at all about TP's so I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Marriott didn't directly address the Travel Packages. They specifically stated that 5th Night Free stays and the Starwood airline transfers stay, including the partners and the "bonus" 5k.

At 4:30PM ET yesterday, the first thing I did was look for the Travel Packages. I saw nothing either way. Then, a half-hour later, I found this buried deep in the FAQ under the question about the United partnership:

Originally Posted by Marriott FAQ
There are no changes to the United RewardsPlus offering. If you have Platinum Premier Elite status, you will still be able to link and upgrade your United MileagePlus Account to Premier® Silver status. In addition, all members receive bonuses when converting points to United MileagePlus miles and on RewardsPlus Hotel + Air Packages.
"RewardsPlus Hotel + Air Package" is the official name for the United TP (the one that earns 132,000 miles instead of 120k). Marriott is stating that this will continue to exist. Therefore, it would *seem* to imply that Travel Packages would continue to exist for other airlines as well. (Theoretically possible that this could become a "United-only" thing, but that seems unlikely to me as Marriott seeks to be a global brand that appeals to an audience broader than U.S.-based Star Alliance fans.) The website does also make reference to continuing to be able to use points for hotel and air vacations - although it isn't clear if that explicitly means Travel Packages or the Starwood portal that let you use points for almost anything.

And the bloggers all seem to think the TPs will survive, so there's that...

Originally Posted by MarkOK
Well, YMMV. Hyatt's smaller footprint may certainly matter to some travelers for specific reasons, but I think this is too often overstated. Hyatt does have a couple hotels in central London. Hyatt does have 4 hotels in the city of Paris (including one that is gotten with a mid-tier award category). As for other places (including in Europe), the recent integration of Oasis Homes into the rewards program puts Rome, Barcelona, and other destinations without a Hyatt hotel on the map for status earning and award earning/redemption, and gives more options in Paris, London, etc. I only need 1 good hotel in these cities to make me happy, -- Starriott having 4 additional options in Paris doesn't matter when I have four great choices with Hyatt already. Yes, the footprint matters to some, but not so much that I think Marriott can be dismissive of the competition.
This. Hyatt doesn't have the raw numbers, but if your need is primarily big-city hotels for business trips plus a stable of nice resort in good places for redemptions, it's not as thin as FT would lead people to believe. Hyatt is more a fit for a heritage-Starwood fan than a Marriott fan. The new program structure seems to keep most of what the heritage-Starwood fans were hoping for - SNAs, elite benefits at resorts and their best brands, etc. But Hyatt is definitely a viable option if they feel that the impending category creep is too severe.
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 9:10 am
  #64  
 
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Originally Posted by Kacee
Based on the details so far revealed about the new combined program, the sky is most definitely not falling. So while I suspect we will see some overall upward creep in award prices when properties are assigned to new categories, I don't see a "massive devaluation" coming. Moreover, the increased elite bonuses (75% vs. 50% for current MR Plats) will help to offset any increase in award rates.
Do you mean the bonus as in 25% more points per stay---or the value of 25% more points per per dollar spent on the room--- or 25% more points for the total of your bill? Or am I speaking in redundancies.

Sorry but I really don't know. Thanks!
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 9:11 am
  #65  
 
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Originally Posted by MarkOK
Well, YMMV. Hyatt's smaller footprint may certainly matter to some travelers for specific reasons, but I think this is too often overstated. Hyatt does have a couple hotels in central London. Hyatt does have 4 hotels in the city of Paris (including one that is gotten with a mid-tier award category). As for other places (including in Europe), the recent integration of Oasis Homes into the rewards program puts Rome, Barcelona, and other destinations without a Hyatt hotel on the map for status earning and award earning/redemption, and gives more options in Paris, London, etc. I only need 1 good hotel in these cities to make me happy, -- Starriott having 4 additional options in Paris doesn't matter when I have four great choices with Hyatt already. Yes, the footprint matters to some, but not so much that I think Marriott can be dismissive of the competition.
If you consider the UK to only be London and France to only be Paris, you're doing fine with Hyatt. After travelling to Europe more than a couple of times, I like to travel to other cities in those countries.

Hyatt is unusable through most of Europe. As a former Hyatt Diamond, I know how difficult it would be to book a European vacation (and many other parts of the world) with Hyatt. I had hoped that the Andaz Munich would open - maybe some day. Forget about Italy, Greece and most other EU countries with Hyatt unless you want to do the AirBnB (aka Oasis Homes) route which is also limited to 21 cities. No thanks -a lot of times, home rentals deliver less than they promise; sometimes, MUCH less. If I were interested in something other than a hotel, I'd go the timeshare route. And I don't plan on doing timeshares.

Bottom line is that Hyatt is not a standalone hotel loyalty program unless you have a very limited list of destinations you want to travel to. If it works for you, great, but there are many, many areas of the world not covered by Hyatt. Put as many coats of lipstick on it as you like, but it is not a standalone loyalty program. As a program to augment Marriott or Hilton, sure. But not a standalone hotel loyalty program.
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 9:12 am
  #66  
 
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Originally Posted by CPRich
Sorry, but 40-45 going to 50 and 40-45 going to 90 is not "splitting hairs". It's a completely different action. I've already said there is annual inflation, but massive 50% devaluation is not going to happen. With which part of my statement don't you agree? Or do you consider moving from 45K-50K to be "massive devaluation", in which case justabout every program has "massive devaluation" every year or two and the phrase becomes meaningless.

btw, saying "no way 40 will go to 35" is pretty meaningless when not one said it would.
40 going to 45 is 13% "annual inflation", 40 going to 50 is 25%. We haven't remotely seen that since the 1980's being in the 1-2% for a decade now.

It's brutal giving the "facts" but you are much more accepting than the rest of us, especially since there is nothing we can do about it but complain! I do envy your calm demeanor
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 9:13 am
  #67  
 
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Originally Posted by CPRich
Sorry, but 40-45 going to 50 and 40-45 going to 90 is not "splitting hairs". It's a completely different action. I've already said there is annual inflation, but massive 50% devaluation is not going to happen. With which part of my statement don't you agree? Or do you consider moving from 45K-50K to be "massive devaluation", in which case justabout every program has "massive devaluation" every year or two and the phrase becomes meaningless.

btw, saying "no way 40 will go to 35" is pretty meaningless when not one said it would.
40 going to 45 is 13% "annual inflation", 40 going to 50 is 25%. We haven't remotely seen that since the 1980's being in the 1-2% range for a decade now.

It's brutal giving the "facts" but you are much more accepting than the rest of us, especially since there is nothing we can do about it but complain! I do envy your calm demeanor
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 9:47 am
  #68  
 
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Originally Posted by CPRich
Sorry, but 40-45 going to 50 and 40-45 going to 90 is not "splitting hairs". It's a completely different action. I've already said there is annual inflation, but massive 50% devaluation is not going to happen. With which part of my statement don't you agree? Or do you consider moving from 45K-50K to be "massive devaluation", in which case justabout every program has "massive devaluation" every year or two and the phrase becomes meaningless.

btw, saying "no way 40 will go to 35" is pretty meaningless when not one said it would.
Who said it was going to 90? My argument was the pts value is increasing which it certainly will. Just read the tea leaves. Who said 50% devaluation will happen? This is a strawman argument. And as outlined by Joshua below, this isn't a small inflation. And my argument was the increase in pts (40/45 to 50) is the minimum. You haven't even taken into consideration peak times yet which are TBD.
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 9:59 am
  #69  
 
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Multiple Choice Test

Pick the correct answer.

Question 1. During the announcement carried live on Facebook on April 16, 2018, David Flueck, Senior Vice President, Global Loyalty, said which of the following?

A. "We're moving to one combined award chart. We're going to use this opportunity for a drastic devaluation to alienate our loyal members."

B. "If you want to use points for Hawaii, act quickly. Full-service resorts in Hawaii will jump from their current 40,000 points per night to 85,000 and even 100,000 ponts per night."

C. "A" and "B"

D. "We're moving to one combined award chart, that's even better value for your points. As we move to one award chart, the amazing thing is we have more hotels that are going down in cost than are going up in cost."

The correct answer is D.
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 10:06 am
  #70  
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Originally Posted by joshua362
40 going to 45 is 13% "annual inflation", 40 going to 50 is 25%. We haven't remotely seen that since the 1980's being in the 1-2% range for a decade now.
Once again....

10% of properties going up 15% is not a 15% devaluation of the program. It's (without getting into weighting) roughly a 1.5% decrease in the value of the program.

You don't believe that 1 property going up 100% and 4080 properties (MR count from my 2015 data) staying flat is a 100% devaluation of the program, do you?

We haven't seen the entire MR program weighted devaluation go down 25% since...ever.

Last edited by CPRich; Apr 17, 2018 at 10:28 am
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 10:08 am
  #71  
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Originally Posted by joshua362
40 going to 45 is 13% "annual inflation", 40 going to 50 is 25%. We haven't remotely seen that since the 1980's being in the 1-2% for a decade now.

It's brutal giving the "facts" but you are much more accepting than the rest of us, especially since there is nothing we can do about it but complain! I do envy your calm demeanor
In referring to @CPRich there, you simply are showcasing that @CPRich is accepting what cannot be changed. Everyone is welcome to complain incessantly about possible changes, inflation, and devaluation that may or may not happen. @CPRich has decided wisely that such complaints are worthless, since it’s all going to be what it’s going to be, regardless. Also, people are wildly speculating about devaluations without actually knowing if they, in fact, will happen.

People can accept the changes or people can complain and be bitter about the changes. Either way, there will be the same changes, regardless. I’d think acceptance is wiser since the alternative accomplishes nothing.

I have disagreed many times in the past with @CPRich. But I couldn’t agree more with him now.
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 10:12 am
  #72  
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Originally Posted by FlyinHawaiian320
Who said it was going to 90?
Those higher end hotels are going to end up being cat 7 or 8 and peak, so will be in the 90-100k/nt range now
In response:
Originally Posted by FlyinHawaiian320
My thoughts as well.

Last edited by CPRich; Apr 17, 2018 at 10:30 am
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 10:13 am
  #73  
 
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Most likely I will transfer my points to airline miles .... so as long as the exchange rate is reasonable I'm quite happy

They mention about 3 points to a mile (needs to wait the full detail of the rate)
Still good for me
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 10:18 am
  #74  
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I will complain if complaints are needed, though will realize there is little that can be done. But it often helps in influencing future decisions, like a coach complaining about a call to get the benefit of the doubt on the next one..

What I won't do is make up data based on nothing, or accept others making up data based on nothing, then going hysterical about it. I react to news, not speculation.

Otherwise, I would have joined the class action lawsuit.

(I also won't do bad math)

Last edited by CPRich; Apr 17, 2018 at 10:26 am
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Old Apr 17, 2018, 10:25 am
  #75  
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Originally Posted by Horace
The correct answer is D.
Stop with the facts! We need wild hysteria!! That was obviously code for A and B!!!

And yes, I'll admit I was wrong if that happens. Wonder if others will do the same. I've seen no takers on my wager offer.
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