hockeyinsider

Because nobody actually wants to redeem points at the vast majority of those hotels. So to argue it won't be a devaluation because thousands of limited-service properties will remain at lower award-redemption categories is absurd.

pokee

I just spent 6 nights at the Marriott Wailea Beach Resort in March (peak season), where room rates were $500+ per night.- and only 40,000 points per night for redemption. I knew that this was a SMOKIN deal, and inside I also knew this deal would not last. I agree with your speculation...

joshua362

I'm in for $100 assuming:

#1 this is even calculable, we'd need a spreadsheet of all 4,000+ before and after point costs, how is that going to happen?

#2 Wouldn't current SPG point costs need to be divided by 3 for the comparison to be valid?

#3 Would have to pit 7/31/18 values vs. 1/1/19 with adjustments made for peak/standard/off peak since this is a two step, phased in screwing.
If a hotel was 4 months/4 months/4 months peak/standard/off peak ratio then the standard redemption would be fine but if its 8 months / 2 months / 2 months then that's got to be factored in as a net six months at the higher rate.

A massive data gathering job.

And there still would injustices that couldn't be calculated such as low point redemptions in 3rd world countries or places I never signed up to visit, but I'll concede those!

pokee

Since we've all pretty much agreed that a devaluation is a certainty and not a speculation, what can we legitimately do to take advantage of the current hotel categories/redemption rates?

1. Can we can we assume that if we book a certain category prior to Aug. 1st for stays after Aug. 1st, that the current point value for the redemption will be honored?

2. If current redemption values will be honored for stays post Aug 1, what if you don't have enough points in your account to order the e-cert right away? Will the old point value still be the amount owed when it comes time to order the e-cert?

3. If current redemption values will be honored for stays post Aug. 1, how far in advance can we book reward reservations with the old redemption values (say I wanted to book a Cat 5 hotel for March 2019 today - would it still end up costing me 25K when I order the ecert in Feb 2019)?

joeags

And I'm going the opposite direction on your speculation. This year was a big devaluation in terms of hotels moving up categories. As much as there has been doom and gloom with all the merger details, the actual details have been decent. Sure there are hits, but all in all, I don't think anything was a huge slam. With that in mind, my bet is that they made changes to the hotel categories in March in order to be able to roll a bunch back and show it as a big improvement. I won't say that there won't be movement in March again afterwards and then a downward trend happens, but I really think Marriott wants to appear to be giving their members good value at the beginning.

What's interesting to me is the large jumps in some of the categories, especially a category 5 to 6, where there's a 15K jump between levels. I wonder if they plan multi-year jumps. Year 1 - category 5, with minimal peak dates (35K, minimal 40K dates). Year 2 - category 6, but huge number of off-peak dates (40K, some standard 50K dates). Year 3 - category 6, mostly standard dates, but with some 60K peak dates. I worried about those 10-15K category jumps, but maybe there's more to this reward chart.

hockeyinsider

If you would read what Marriott has said you would have the answers.

Anything booked prior to August 1 on the current Marriott, Ritz-Carlton or SPG charts will be honored. Between August 1 and February 1, 2019, the highest category will be category 7 on the new cart. Dynamic pricing won't be effect until February 1, 2019. Anything booked on the new chart from August 1, 2018, until February 1, 2019, including for stays after February 1, 2019, will be honored.

hockeyinsider

That's an interesting point that everyone has overlooked. Marriott is know to change its chart every year. So even the 100,000 maximum for the new category 8 could be 110,000 or 125,000 in 2020.

pitflyer

Marriott has been pretty decent at advance notice and also honoring rates made before changes. Myself and others have had many reservations made prior to a category increase and never had a problem getting Marriott to take the points based on its value at booking. And you CAN get better value in case of decrease; Marriott will rebook and give you back the points.

So for those who expect bad behavior, make your speculative reservations before Aug 1, even if you don't ticket points. It seems the window between Aug 1 and Feb 1 would be the best time to book Tier 5 hotels as they would then be 80k points a night, and will likely be 85k points a night in the future when Cat 8 is introduced to Marriott.

BrightlyBob

hockeyinsider

Who's to say they won't? We have had two chart changes in four months. Maybe not next year but a year from now or two years from now. Who's to say that we won't see 2019 category 7 properties become category 8? I predict there will be a mass number of award-redemptions for the aspirational properties that will cost 100,000 points per night after February 1, 2019. That's because from August 1, 2018, through January 31, 2019, you will be able to book these properties at the new category 7 level. I'm sure a lot of owners won't be happy, especially if there are more redemptions than expected.

I don't take my vacations in beach resorts, but if you were thinking of going anywhere tropical -- let alone super-aspirational -- within the next year you will want to book by January 31, 2019.

CPRich

Both were changed at the same time. The original title was simply "Massive Marriott Points Devaluation", or a similar declarative, iirc.

CPRich

I still don't know what this means or how it's relevant. The claim was that programs have been devalued by 15%, 20%, etc., I made the point that if 10% of the properties were devalued by 15% that doesn't devalue the entire program by 15%. Just like gasoline, one component of inflation, going up 20% doesn't mean inflation went up 20%.

I then used an example of 3999 properties staying unchanged and 1 program going up 100%. The entire program did not go up 100% when a single item did. "Limited-service properties" has nothing to do with this.

Are you stating that you believe this would be a 100% increase in the program? If 3999 properties were made free and one program doubled, it's still a 100% increase in points requirements and a massive devaluation?

CPRich

Multiply the number of properties at a level by the points per night at that level and add them up. Individual properties don't matter - the claim is program devaluation. About 5 minutes of work.

Do the same when the new list comes out.

EDIT: about 5 minutes later...




Including SPG Properties. (they are multiplied by 3, not divided by 3, mid-point for 2-tier levels), and preparing for the new data and a comparison.

hieronymus

Its interesting how much I am in the minority here, but I argue that Marriott actually can't devalue significantly since they kept the air points transfer options intact.

Practically an air point is worth 1.2 to 1.8 cents so:
1.2 to 1.8 cents *25k / 60k = .5 to .75 cents per "newpoint"

This is the minimum then that a newpoint is worth.

Unless Marriott loses its mind or somehow makes more money trading air points then running/franchising hotels, they should prefer that you redeem newpoints with Marriott over redeeming for air points or for something else. Therefore, I expect the value to remain somewhere near the current ~.8 cents per current Marriott point.

Seasons may smooth out some of the high and low rewards opportunities and maybe they reduce a little value overall here. In the end though we will see when categories get assigned, but worst case your new points are worth the value of traded air miles....

Boraxo

But I don’t want air miles. I have plenty of those and minting more every month. What I need much more are hotel miles. And SPG Amex was a great way to get them because they were essentially worth far more than any other hotel card. Now that option is devalued. Marriott hotel spend also has good ROI particularly with the bonuses. Now that will be massively devalued due to the award chart hikes for the top properties.

The only plus here is that Actual SPG Hotel spend will be worth a lot more than it was pre-Marriott. But that will be mostly offset by the 3-fold rise in award prices. At Hyatt I can still get a top room for 30k points.