What if Mars Attacks! turns out to the be most prophetic movie ever made?

Acck acck

I strongly agree with this. I can imagine potentially nasty outcomes from arbitrage attempts--for example, if you cancel your booking the certificate is also cancelled and you get back 45K + 30 for cat above 5.

My 2 cents, also expressed by some others, is that Marriott obviously knows how they plan to handle these certs at this point and the reason they are not making their decision public is because they plan to be generous in their handling of the certs because otherwise they could have a media fiasco and a bunch of lawsuits. If they announced the details now people would maximize the exploitation of their generosity which they obviously do not want.

I have made some guesses as to how I think it will play out and positioned my certs to leverage the possibilities I think may happen. Even if I am wrong in exactly how the certs are treated if I come out ahead of where I am today (and I believe I will based on my assumption of Marriott being generous) I will count myself lucky.

Where did you position your certs? :D

Apologies in advance for not trawling through the previous pages but have I missed the boat on buying the TP at pre-August prices?

I'm thinking much the same as to the increase in the number of TPs outstanding. I doubt its an order of magnitude higher, but I do suspect it is a substantial multiplier. And while I would think Marriott had taken into account the impact of the change on TPs (and not just overlooked/ignored the issue), I suspect they significantly underestimated the impact because of underestimating the number of new TPs that would be "bought".

However, we'll probably never know if Marriott treats this as internal commercial (privileged) data.

I hope they don't, since with all its many interacting parts this merger of the two loyalty programs would be an intriguing case study for a B-school.

Haha absolutely not... but I don't think that Marriott paid fair market value to acquire customers only to alienate them by penalizing customers for cancelling a refundable trip, post integration. Especially given that under the current regime, if you were to cancel a refundable stay, you would get your travel certificate back. Further, StarwoodLurker specifically gave instruction that in order to maximize value of your cert, you should attach. Even further, whenever I booked the reservation I was assured by a CSR that I could cancel. (Mind you, I know CSRs aren't the most reliable sources). But alas, if there is a scorched earth scenario where what you suggest transpires, I might just take comfort that I got a bargain on some UA miles and would likely switch my loyalty over to another flag. You win some you lose some.

I don't expect that Marriott would pay a premium for customer relationships only to negate the goodwill by changing the game to that degree. But then again, you don't get returns without taking risks.

Haha - no I am not! ;)

The mistake most speculators make is to conflate the devaluation of TPs with the devaluation of point redemptions at higher-end properties. There is no massive devaluation of the travel packages--a devaluation, yes, but the massive devaluation is of the higher-end rewards redemption. The old seven-night travel package system generally converted points to miles at a 1:1 ratio and added the cost of a seven-night stay at respective categories (after considering the fifth night free). The new travel packages follow the same logic but convert points to miles at a 1.5:1 ratio and use the cost of peak pricing for each category. The 1:1 to 1.5:1 change to the point to mile ratio is not the main cause of the increased cost of new TPs. The delta predominantly results from the increased cost of the hotel stay, i.e., the increased cost of point stays. I don't think Marriott wants to highlight this, which is why I personally think Marriott will opt for a points refund. But what was the point of a deferred Category 8? In theory, subject to availability for a points redemption, old Tier 4 to 5 packages could book a stay at any Marriott or Ritz hotel. The new TP category that has equivalent purchasing power as of August 18 is a Category 7 package. The 540k T5 TP, minus the 120k points for miles at a 1:1 ratio, yields a hotel "value" of 420k. The new Category 7 TP, minus either 50k or 100k points for miles at a 1.5:1 ratio, yields the same. The other perfect conversions are old Category 6 to new Category 4 and old Category 8 to new category 5. Anyone thinking a Tier 1 to 3 (or a Category 9, 8, or 7) could possibly result in a new Category 7 package has more hope than sense.

You may be right, but . . . .

The main reason most people, if not all, bought the travel package in the first place was to be able to exchange 1 Marriott Rewards point for one airline mile. The "nights" part of the package could be obtained at the same points-per-night rate through a simple nights redemption, no need to go the TP route (and no reduced rate by doing so) and no need to pay for 7 nights if you didn't plan to stay 7 nights.

The 50% increase in the cost of the miles is, to me and I suspect others, a significant devaluation, and since it strikes at the reason for getting a TP in the first place, that is the problem. Sure, they adjusted the redemption rate for hotel nights, but they adjust rates annually and the adjustment applies whether you're redeeming TPs or just straight nights, same-same. Sometimes it impacts the particular property you're interested in, and sometimes not. The adverse impact of the points-to-miles rate increase hits all TPs.

You say, "The delta predominantly results from the increased cost of the hotel stay, i.e., the increased cost of point stays." That is not true in most cases; in over 60% of the properties the points-per-night rate did not increase, and in many cases it actually decreased. However, ALL of the TPs saw a 50% increase in the cost of the miles.

Just finished moving my certs into a position that I'm happy with. 1 x Cat 9 attached to the Domes, 1 x Cat 9 unattached, 1 x Cat 8, 1 x Cat 7, 2 x Cat 6, 4 x Cat 1-5.

Ready to eat crow come August 19.

I agree. I said there is a devaluation with respect to point-to-mile conversion when comparing old to new travel packages. If you compare anything to the 1:1 point-to-mile ratio of the old packages, it would be a devaluation. But did you expect better? The 1 SPG point to 1.25 mile ratio from the SPG program was universally accepted as a "good" value. That is a 2.4:1 point-to-mile ratio. Travel packages still provide a 37.5% savings to that exchange, which makes the point-to-mile component of the new travel packages, at a minimum, a better than good value.

Yes; it is a devaluation that hits all travel packages. If one won't accept anything but a 1:1 ratio, then one obviously will not be happy. Period. But again it is the increase in the relative cost of the stay portion of the travel package that hits harder. What I mean by that is the purchase of a travel package to "unlock" the 1:1 transfer ratio for 120k air miles used to cost a 150k commitment to stays (for a 270k travel package). It is that relative comparison that made 5N packages attractive, as the point commitment to stays to unlock the 1:1 transfer ratio for 120k miles was just 115k. The importance of reducing the relative cost of the hotel stay portion to the miles portion is also why the 5N packages were attractive, even when the points per night of the stay in a 5N package exceeded that cost in a 7N package (i.e., resulted in "overpaying" the non-travel package cost of the stay portion). Ultimately, once the entitlement to a 1:1 ratio is forgotten, what starts hurting more will be the commitment of at least 180k points to stays to unlock the 1.5:1 transfer ratio for 100k miles. Whereas the old travel packages permitted obtaining 120k air miles for 150k points towards stays, obtaining 120k air miles now requires 216k points towards stays.

Ultimately, I was addressing already purchased travel packages, not comparing old and new travel packages. To the extent you're emphasizing the primary importance of the 1:1 ratio for old packages though, any future treatment of the stay portion of the certificate does not affect that value. In other words, whatever Marriott does in terms of valuing outstanding hotel certificates, it isn't going to recalculate their cost by applying a 1.5:1 ratio retroactively. So it is a win regardless.

I dream of a day when the speculation on what will happen to TPs post-merger are just history, and we can go back to trying to interpret the new Marriott Platinum breakfast policy. :-)