That's not how the categories work though. Think of the opposite:

If they suddenly introduced 8 new categories, making them go from 1-15. Surely you wouldn't say that "today's category 8 will be valid for future category 8, i don't see what the problem is. Clean and simple, no remapping" if all hotels move up categories to adjust for the new structure. People would be VERY unhappy about that.

A current Cat 8 is part of a package that costs 390K points. A Tier 4-5 costs 540K points. So right off the bat either everyone above 8 is getting screwed or they're getting a ridiculous payment of returned points.

Anyone else get one today?!

Upthread it said 24 hours. i.e. problem to be able to transfer but no more problem after 24 hours have passed.

I already have 2 Cat 5 floating.

The difference is 30K, not enough for us to gamble should the floater certs not be able to book the Cat 4. We need that 7 nights AND probably another 7 nights as we would be in the city for 2 weeks based on current tickets In any case the first 7 days are not going to change with the second 7 days may see some changes, depending on what I will see before Aug 24 - the last day to exercise the one shot free change of the tickets.

no - they are not getting screwed - they would be getting hotel stay at any property in the system - exactly what they redeemed for (or better of they redeem for cat8-t3)...

yet and that's devaluation and everyone would be rightfully upset.
keeping cats as stated on certs otoh would cost mr very little - minor difference in payout to properties - a minuscule cost on the scale of integration that prevents a massive customer service mess

RC New York, for example, is 70K a night. How can you possibly argue that a cert currently worth 40K a night should be redeemed for that?

Correct. Marriott "owes" you a redemption at a hotel at a certain category (or lower). It has never made any representations as to which hotel will be in which category once you will redeem your certificate. So if MR will (and I think it is likely the will do this) is that certificates will retain their respective category, e.g. a Cat 1-5 cert will be good for Cat 1-5 (new). This makes Cat. 8 certificates the sweet spot. If you buy RC Tier certs you will lose value in the new program (compared to a Cat. 8 cert) but you still have some days to redeem at the current RC tier levels.

This is certainly possible, but then why all the secrecy around it?

This would be one of the two simplest solutions (the other being refunding full 6N worth of points) and we can all hope (or pray?) this would be the case. However, its probability is nearly zero because:

1) Head of Marriott's loyalty team has said Marriott is still working on its IT system to solve this issue. If a current certificate can be used as is, it won't require an IT solution.

2) Starwood Lurker has stated, with approval from the new loyalty team, that certificate holders should attach their certificates to maximize their "usage". If a current certificate can be used as is, there won't be a need for that.

3) This would be much more costly solution than the other simple solution of refunding full 6N worth of points. If Marriott only had these two choices, it would choose the latter. If it had chosen the former, it would have to refund the points-differential (which could be as high as 210K points) to the current cat 8/cat 9/tier 1-3/tier 4-5 certificate holders, and pay much higher reimbursement rates to the very top tier hotels, which could cost up to 100K/night in points in peak season next year (or up to 600K points in total). The choice should be obvious to Marriott.

Yes and No - A certificate for a category 1-8 wouldn't require an IT solution but a certificate for a category 9 and any Tier certificate would definitely require an IT solution since those "categories" will no longer exist after Aug. 18 hence those certificate codes used to apply against a reservation would be invalid.

Starwood Lurker has always advised members before any category change to make a reservation PRIOR to the change to ensure you lock in the lower redemption rate AKA "maximize points usage". Let me break it down this way... if you hold a category 5 certificate and the property is moving up a category you should attach your certificate to maximize its value.

The least expensive solution is to allow the certificates to be used as is because I believe Marriott will only allow certificates to only be used for standard redemption meaning you'll have to pay the points difference during peak season. I also believe Marriott will not extend the expiry dates of the legacy certificates nor will they allow upgrades/downgrades or refund of points. It will be: use it or lose it.

Also keep in mind the rate Marriott pays each property for a free night is cheaper than refunding the points which can be used to buy another travel package with airline miles ;) Plus, some members won't stay the full 7 nights which again reduces redemption costs - heck I'm sure Marriott is hoping people don't use them at all like people who buy gift cards and never use them.

Not sure how a conversion of cat types does not require an IT solution. At the very least Marriott would have to have completely separate categories, terms, and conditions for the legacy ones until they processed out of the system.

Certainly hope they don't remove the ability to upgrade the category on points! That would be bad.

If Marriott refunds the difference between the current cat-7 certificate and the higher-category certificates, all current cat-7 or higher certificates would be turned into the new cat-7 certificates, there wouldn't be a need for an IT solution.

If the current cat-5 is turned into a new cat-5 certificate (and similarly for other higher category certificates), there wouldn't be a need to book now to maximize usage. Very few, if any, hotels jumps from current cat 5 (25K/night) to new category 6 (50K/night in regular season) or above.

No, that's false. The reimbursement rates depend on occupancy. At the very top hotels, the occupancy levels are likely to be very high for this year and next because of new redemption structure for this year. BTW, the new TP certificates can be used for any season, including the peak seasons, so it's highly unlikely the current floater certificates, if they survive 8/18, would have seasonal restrictions.