So you agree its not fair, and are changing your *argument* to "it's ok to punish people with floaters without official advanced notice"? Keep digging that hole.

Still waiting on your *prediction*.

My actual prediction is that in the crunch to get the transition completed they won't be able to do what they want--which is map current TPs to new categories to preserve breakage and inefficient rejections--and that they'll just refund 150K + nx30K where n is Cat - 5.

+1 That's precisely my belief.

It would be interesting to know the breakdown of how the hotel portion of travel packages have been redeemed in the past. If most customers used all 7 nights, it might increase the likelihood that MPG decides to just offer a full points refund and avoid the aggravation of some of the other options.

I have redeemed MR points for numerous travel packages and have been able to utilize every night of each one before they expired. Since Marriott freely extended certificates, I never had trouble redeeming them. While a straight points refund would be great, I would get almost the same value from a restricted certificate with the same number of points.

If you hadn't just redeemed for multiple travel packages, how would you make a market in the hotel portion of travel packages with a one night bid/offer spread? My answer would be bid 5 nights and offer 6 nights. In other words, if I hadn't just redeemed for multiple awards, I would be willing to pay 100K MR points for a 7-night Category 5 certificate and I would sell mine for 125K. I am not suggesting doing something that might result in having one's account terminated, but this is the type of analysis I use in other areas.

I hope you are right! :)

So here's the three outcomes I have planned for:

1--Worst Case. My Cat 1-5 becomes a Cat 1-4. I use it for a booked stay at HK Courtyard however it will only be used for 5 nights. Net value to me--100K, which is acceptable.

2--Better Case. Points refund. I use 140K for 5 nights at HK Rennaissance and keep an extra 10K.

3--Best Case. Cat 1-4 becomes Cat 1-5. I use it for a week at Courtyard Midtown East in NYC and save 140K points plus two free night certificates.

It's pretty clear which of these Marriott would want me to do! Just depends on if they can actually get the IT solution together to make it happen.

I am very torn on a Cat 6 booking that the hotel will go down to new Cat 4 (i.e. from 30K currently to 25K after Aug 18). We do plan/need to stay there. The reservation was made BEFORE Marriott put out its new chart. I upgraded the Cat 5 cert to Cat 6 and attached to the reservation. A few weeks later Marriott put out the new charts.
Because of the uncertainty of how Marriott would treat the unattached certs, it has caused lots of confusion and anxiety for folks who are holding those, esp their targeted hotels would go down in pts per night, or the targeted hotels are SPG properties.

Personally I am a bit resentful on how Marriott is handling this. Why would we have to play "cliff hanger" when there could be some very simple solution(s) that would be fair to both the customers and the Marriott corporation? The only reason behind this current uncertainty is because Marriott tries from every angle to MINIMIZE its costs on the old TPs as evidenced by how much more expensive the new TPs are. A devaluation no matter how Marriott would spin it. Airlines on the other hand while devalue their miles often at least most the time they gave you several months notice so you can plan accordingly.

Just the treatment of keeping us in the dark till after the fact, is an UNFAIR treatment to members in my opinion.

If I'm transferring to VS, how long do I need to wait after creating an account (thought I had one but apparently never created one)?

Agree on all fronts. At minimum, in lieu of giving us points back directly, I think they'd like to stick us with a restricted points equivalent cert (total or nightly), but even that would be a pain to do (they'll have single night points certs and multi night cat certs, but not multi night points certs) and cause consternation if you get stuck with a dead cat (6, 8, 9). But not enough return and time to justify the CS and IT work in the midst of the merger.

What about TPs detached after Aug18? I assume that can not be points refund, otherwise I think a lot of people would drop their reservations and book less nights at the same property, probably 5, and save the remainder for later. Happy to be wrong there.

I don't think Marriott can treat detached certificates differently than never-attached certificates. It's nearly impossible to justify such an action.

C'mon, detach, downgrade and roll the dice.

I think we oversell the cost contribution of the existing travel packages as a whole. In my opinion, a rounding error in the scheme of things due to how few there probably are out there, unattached. They are in the midst of $13B purchase, there has to be much more lucrative items to be focus on minimizing costs for, "synergies" namely removing redundant processes, systems, facilities, people, etc. And has been astutely mentioned many times, companies use the 'one time cost' caveats all the time to sweep acquisition, relocation, reorganization, etc under the rug - and the market buys this. The last thing I think they want is a PR blowup over something effectively insignificant, and I'm sure the blogs would cry bloody murder if something bad happened (can't believe I'm saying something positive about the blogs). They are literally selling packages up to the last day as far as we know, there is no way they're spending any time on how best to nickle and dime them.

Based on recent SPG points sales, MR points are worth about 3/4 of a cent each. Even if taken to extremes, the difference in cost to MPG of each option isn't huge. In contrast, the effect on future customer loyalty might be dramatic. Once you eliminate the outliers, we are only talking about a few hundred dollars difference.

I was told this morning it ended yesterday, but she managed to get it to go.

Nice post especially your formula.

why? there was cat 5 and there will be cat 5.. there was 8 and there will be 8... anything 8 and above will be valid at any hotel.. clean and simple no refunds remapping rebates and logistical and legal headaches.. your cert is valid for category as stated on the cert...