FWIW there are also multiple reports in the UK of 5-night packages being freely available.

https://insideflyer.co.uk/2018/07/co...rriott-points/

If TP certs are to be converted to new certs post August, a 5-night cert would certainly be more usable than 7-night cert. However, if TP certs are, however unlikely, converted to points sufficient for the number of nights post August, then a 7-night package would actually be better as you'll actually get more points back than the additional cost in points for the package.

At the new rate at which FF miles are awarded, it no longer matters much.

In the "old" world, I traditionally thought of a Marriott point as worth 1 cent when I redeemed it for a hotel. That's held roughly true for me through the old Marriott categories. The FF miles side I just call 1.5 cents per point in the absence of a very specific need for a particular FF mile. Both of these are conservative, taking into account that I'm often redeeming TPs without a specific need for an exact hotel or flight.

Thus, an "old" Travel Package made my Marriott points worth somewhere in the 1.2 to 1.3 cent range, redeeming in the Cat 5-8 range, because of the 1:1 nature of the FF mile conversion.

The new world, unfortunately, requires me to redeem 150k MR to get 100k miles. (Or more!) So the air miles side has now dropped to or below the value I get from hotels.

So at the end of the day, I might as well just redeem 5-night hotel stays. I like them better than 7-night stays anyway, and I'm no longer getting a substantial "bonus" in terms of the value in miles in the Travel Package. The only reason I might redeem an occasional TP in the future is that I have a ton of Hilton and Hyatt points and certificates, and adding a bunch of Marriott nights becomes overkill at some point. But now I have to trade off value to get airline miles, which is disappointing considering how beloved the TP's always were in the old Marriott system.

I made a chart on my blog mapping out 3 scenarios of how Marriott might map out the 7 levels of current certificates:
https://www.dansdeals.com/points-tra...advantage-now/

I do wish they would just announce their plans, but it seems like they probably won't do so until after it's too late to buy the current packages.

I suspect Marriott are holding off announcing the details about travel package certificates conversion and delaying it to the last minute. The conversion will be lucrative and Marriott doesn't want to cause a run on those certs before August changes come into effect.

Sounds right.
The real question is do I buy Tier 1-3 or Tier 4-5?
And will Marriott allow exchanges between cert categories after the current ones are discontinued?

They don't need to say anything about the conversion rate. TPs are already going to be hugely devalued in August and this is public knowledge.

Au contraire... if they're planning to screw us with a mere 45K refund, then it's in their interest to keep that quiet so we keep ordering TPs under the current rules...

Starwood Lurker posted the following today regarding TP on the SPG forum:
We'll be running blind for the next couple of weeks.

I take it as a good sign.

ok that was a waste of a hour I will never get back. Which number do you suggest calling. I called the number of the Marriott page and they do not know what is going on over there. First told dialed wrong number, the website was wrong. Then told I did dial right as things has changed. Then got my hotel set up and when they tried to price the points the total was wrong. Then they passed me to someone who said I could not get a 5 night rewards as I was NOT a MVC owners.

So I bailed on a 1 hr call, and I will have to do it again. Anyone else having issues on a 5 night.

You have to be a MVCI owner to get a 5 night. The reps offering them were wrong and are being tightened back up.

That post allayed my fears about redeeming a package at Starwood properties, I can make one last redemption now. .. You're Dan from Dan's Deals!?

For a 7 day cert do you have to use it for 7 days or can you use it on a shorter stay?

Thanks

You can get an agent to attach a 7 night certificate for a shorter stay... not a problem.

I think Marriott will announce at least after Jul.20 which SPG last buy due day.