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Old Mar 13, 2010 | 10:41 am
  #46  
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Originally Posted by f0zzyNUE
just my 2ct on this promotion

it cannot be compared to the referenced UK SEN status match (sorry NewbieRunner for mentioning this ) ... why?
1. you have to spend a large amount of money for this promotion
2. you have to be organized to stem such a HON-run. it will be much more expensive when you don't find enough companions to fill a private jet.
3. this promotion will be discussed here and in some other frequent traveller forums. the huge bunch of other frequent flyers won't hear about the promotion and the very FT-like creative solution to trick the system. and when they do it is probably too late :-)

i don't expect that a huge amount (more than 50 people) will make / retain HON through that promotion. maybe more people will re/qualify for SEN.

moreover i agree, it is a very sick idea to run from zero to HON with that private jet promo - but hey, that's the spirit of FT. i am highly tempted to spend around 9500 for that promo.

why? because there is much more than a shiny black card in the wallet.
1. HON circle status for almost 3 years and afterwards 2 years SEN status meaning 4 years of not worrying about SEN requalification
2. 6 additional eVouchers
3. the promotion (5 round trips) generates 525.000 award miles worth 5 longhaul business class round trip tickets with HON availability guarantee or approx. 4 companion award longhaul business class award tickets. when you value one longhaul C ticket (excluding taxes) with approx. 2000 then you gain a value of around 8000
4. highest op-up-priority (how many regular HONs do travel longhaul economy)

it seems everyone is worried about the crowding of the lounges - i don't care much about lounges - the last two times i have been to a LH F lounge i just had a glass of still water and did not stay more than 30 minutes. (my definition of luxury: you can have/take everything, but you don't have to ...)
And with all respect that is what is going to enhance the HON Prg - let us assume that there are 100 flight booked - generating about 1,4 Mio revenue before cost and on the other hand you might have 100 new Hons - they will receive 600 eV plus another 200 after demotion plus 200 eV from the nominated spouse SEN card. In addition they will all hold a balance for 5 longhauls in C or 3 or so F longhauls. And this already before looking at other costs. LH is nickle and diming - look at taking away salt & pepper schaet in C on longhaul meals - with the loss they will have from this hairbrained scheme - it will dillute further the valuable benefits - NO I am not talking about F lounges but such as award booking gurantee etc. Maybe even lift the paid gurantee away from D. Remenber - many moons ago as a SEN you had a booking gurantee in ALL classes !!!

Just look at the number of people on FT who are gunning for this and there will be more from other boeards - 50 - 100 is likely if not more. Bear in mind that a 100 is already 5 % of what the basis was when the programme was launched in 2004.

Cheers

Thomas
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Old Mar 13, 2010 | 12:07 pm
  #47  
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Originally Posted by tcswede
And with all respect that is what is going to enhance the HON Prg - let us assume that there are 100 flight booked - generating about 1,4 Mio revenue before cost and on the other hand you might have 100 new Hons - they will receive 600 eV plus another 200 after demotion plus 200 eV from the nominated spouse SEN card. In addition they will all hold a balance for 5 longhauls in C or 3 or so F longhauls. And this already before looking at other costs. LH is nickle and diming - look at taking away salt & pepper schaet in C on longhaul meals - with the loss they will have from this hairbrained scheme - it will dillute further the valuable benefits - NO I am not talking about F lounges but such as award booking gurantee etc. Maybe even lift the paid gurantee away from D. Remenber - many moons ago as a SEN you had a booking gurantee in ALL classes !!!

Just look at the number of people on FT who are gunning for this and there will be more from other boeards - 50 - 100 is likely if not more. Bear in mind that a 100 is already 5 % of what the basis was when the programme was launched in 2004.
I agree with you entirely but why blame the punters who are taking advantage of the stupid marketing gimmick that LH has come up with?

After reading f0zzyNUE's post I've done my sums and it makes perfect financial sense if I'm prepared to invest the time.

Which brings me back to my earlier post that f0zzyNUE quoted. Yes, this is somewhat different from the UK SEN status match fiasco but another example of LH marketing's bright idea which antagonises its existing loyal customers with detrimental effects on the loyalty programme eventually.
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Old Mar 13, 2010 | 12:53 pm
  #48  
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Originally Posted by tcswede
Just look at the number of people on FT who are gunning for this and there will be more from other boeards - 50 - 100 is likely if not more. Bear in mind that a 100 is already 5 % of what the basis was when the programme was launched in 2004.
hi thomas,

i can understand your fear (as well as SOGs and Rambusters) - i just looked up the survey in the german VFT forum. most of the people using this promotion seem to head for SEN rather than HON.

51 are interested in one roundtrip
16 are interested in two roundtrips
3 in three roundtrips
4 in four roundtrips
9 in five roundtrips
8 in six roundtrips

that's just showing the interest. i guess at least 50% of them will finally drop out anyway.

as you can see that this distribution might cause a lot of logistics trouble for this group 'cause not everyone wants the same amount of trips. moreover there is not one and only "organizer" but many out there. and there are availability constraints on the LHPJ aircraft.

so from my perspective the impact on the number of new/requalified HONs will be not that high (compared to the number of SENs).

cheers
CHris
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Old Mar 13, 2010 | 1:41 pm
  #49  
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I'd be surprised if there are more than 200 people who both:

1) go from having no or any LH elite status to HON status; and
2) wouldn't reach or retain HON status even without this promotions.

200 people is a drop in the bucket amongst LH's large installed customer base and even two thousand extra reward trips isn't going to harm LH much if at all given: a) how much money LH charges when issuing tickets using miles; and/or b) how much money LH charges for using the private jet service; and/or c) LH's need to get customers to use the LH private jet service to cover the sunk costs of having the private jet service fleet

Last edited by GUWonder; Mar 13, 2010 at 1:46 pm
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Old Mar 13, 2010 | 2:01 pm
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GU Wonder,
recover what cost - a 100 flights equates to about 1.2 Mill € Revenue - peanuts in the scope of things but 600 hundred times 50 K or 100 plus new Hons from scratch = close to 1000 evouchers + 600 longhaul guranteed seats as awards - almost always LH J is available on longhaul flights and thus the HON booking gurantee will work - all in all substantially more damage then the revenue and that not looking at the cost of 100 LHPJ flights at all

Thomas

Last edited by tcswede; Mar 13, 2010 at 11:44 pm Reason: Correct the autospelling of the iphone
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Old Mar 13, 2010 | 2:11 pm
  #51  
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I think we all need to chill. Let's not play around with numbers again, that doesnt help anyone. And neither does this whole thread ! @:-)
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Old Mar 13, 2010 | 3:17 pm
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Originally Posted by skywalkerLAX
I think we all need to chill. Let's not play around with numbers again, that doesnt help anyone. And neither does this whole thread ! @:-)
Why should we chill ??? just because we run business and walk away when the the business case is a failure ???
And that is what the whole episode - a kick in the face for those who where happy that loyalty was rewarded somewhat in 2004 when a difference was made by the service provider as to whether you barely screped through as as a foreign registered SEN or you actually logged 1 Mio plus SM a year. As Murphy law of average wil hit against you when the opportunity is ten time shigher - the HON program offered a highly appreciated remedy in case of problems - against contrary belief the programme has so little to do with how to optimize the FCT time - but to work as a solution in times of need.

And this also at Chris aka FuzzyNue - my anger is very much as LH who clearly after the Kassel episode offers another Foxtrott Oscar in my face.

And more so with this business case as stated in the numbers above.

Skywalker - you might perceive this as a frustated git post - but I have learned something on this board and more so on others - it is all about me !!! and I am serioulsly peeved at the fact that LH tries to change some meager cash flow improvement - without looking at mid term implications.
And please save me the talk about the chaps who suddenly realize that HON is something worthwhile and will strive to retain it - if you with LHPJ qualify from baisc scratch - and I assume / hope that the people at LH are not so stupid to do the same mistake twice - and considering the changes from the UK SEN promotion as to try to recover lost balances - it is safe to assume that such a opportunity to qualify will not repeat itself.,,

Cheers

Thomas
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Old Mar 13, 2010 | 3:55 pm
  #53  
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Originally Posted by tcswede
Skywalker - you might perceive this as a frustated git post - but I have learned something on this board and more so on others - it is all about me !!! and I am serioulsly peeved at the fact that LH tries to change some meager cash flow improvement - without looking at mid term implications.
Not at all. And I agree it's all about the individual customer. I for instance always said: I do everything as long as it is good for me or my individual situation. Take advantage as long as possible. Done.

I doubt that anyone who does HON this way will requalify again the regular way if the flew barely the amount of SEN as of now. Maybe a handful... who knows.Was this meant to happen ? Maybe not. But the responsibility is clearly on only one side of the scale here.

The only thing I dont understand is (and thats for every forum): Why posting detailed statistics about what effect this Promo "might" have in terms of increase etc pp. Are people purposely trying to get attention of person X and therefore ruin the deal for others !? Or respectively boycott the deal on the outside but promote it within an "Inner Circle" with a possible comission model.

Cheers,
S.
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Old Mar 13, 2010 | 4:18 pm
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Originally Posted by f0zzyNUE
moreover i agree, it is a very sick idea to run from zero to HON with that private jet promo - but hey, that's the spirit of FT. i am highly tempted to spend around 9500 for that promo.
If anyone is setting up a LH Private Jet HON-run for around 10k you can sign me + one more up. PM me with itinerary! Available in Europe during the whole campaign period and can get to FRA/MUC/ZRH on short notice.
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Old Mar 13, 2010 | 5:19 pm
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Originally Posted by Bjornstrom
If anyone is setting up a LH Private Jet HON-run for around 10k you can sign me + one more up. PM me with itinerary! Available in Europe during the whole campaign period and can get to FRA/MUC/ZRH on short notice.
Having 12 other people that want to do the same. Will do some research tomorrow. Maybe hiring a bigger plane makes sense
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Old Mar 13, 2010 | 9:24 pm
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Lightbulb HON Run ex Zurich (and one machine ex Frankfurt)

Some further information from the ZURICH runs

We are already five people who will do a HON run ex ZRH on the weekend 15.-16.05.2010:
- Eight segments = 400k miles
- Start Saturday morning, back on Sunday evening
- Routing not yet confirmed but already planed
- THERE IS EITHER ONE OR THREE FURTHER PLACES AVAILABLE FOR THAT

In addition to that, we already ordered one machine for 09.05.2010:
- Zurich-Ljubliana or Zurich-Maribor
- Two segments = 100k miles
- There are still some few seat available

In addition to that, we will most likely book another run for 08.05.2010:
- Zurich-Frankfurt-St. Moritz or Zurich-Frankfurt-Altenrhein
- Four segments = 200k miles
- Depending on how many people are open for that
- It could also be open for ex FRA flyers who need two segments and of course, also for ex ZRH flyers who want to do two segments or four segments

The costs per two segments are 1'900 EUR all in

If you are sure you want to make one such trip with us, please leave me your contact details (name, landline or sunrise cell phone number, e-mail) and I will contact you on Monday afternoon.

There will be a meeting on TUESDAY from 18.00 until 19.00 in ZURICH where you can meet me in person and order the tickets.

I am currently on travel and do therefore appreciate if you send me your information to my email and not to my PM! Thank you.

Last edited by Zurich Flyer; Mar 13, 2010 at 11:23 pm
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Old Mar 13, 2010 | 9:34 pm
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Originally Posted by SleepOverGreenland
I tend to believe that you are absolutely right. It doesn't matter how many extra HONs may come out of this, but LH will use it as an excuse to "enhance" the HON program and remove benefits.
I for one do also not believe that the option is unattractive - roughly 10K for a die hard E class domestic/Europe flyer can be well worth it .. especially considering that it shall be good for 3 years if timed properly. Sure it is a waste of money but for someone who was used to fly C all the time ... that's the next best thing.
..I'm more sad to read (in VFT), that even existing HONs, some for a long period, totally lost their mind and jumped into this mileage generation BS.
But what is the incentive there?
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Old Mar 14, 2010 | 12:24 am
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Originally Posted by skywalkerLAX
I doubt that anyone who does HON this way will requalify again the regular way ...
Well, the problem with promos like this starts when we realize that many of those who used to requalify the "regular" way won't be so naive to try that again. They will always wait for the next promotion (I'm confident there will be one of those again)

This is what should be meant by real revenue erosion and not really how many crmes brles a Cessna HON™ will devour at the FCT/L during each one of his raids...

The question, of course, is whether we're smarter than "shortsighted people with LH who don't realize this". To set your minds at rest (well, kind of), the answer is "no we we're not".

But apparently, LH is cash constrained (OK, time to sell ) and needs money now. And how beautiful it is to have the option to (partially) "borrow" cash against a liability whose terminal value is fully under your control... You can always enhance the program and, boom, your debt goes down by as much as you want.

So, I guess, it makes perfect sense for both sides: LH can't count on anyone's loyalty nowadays to partially secure medium-term liquidity, for the simple reason that nobody's unconditional loyalty can be thought as "given" nowadays.

And no, it is not the small/large/medium influx of new Cessna HONs™ the factor that will lead to the devaluation of the program. I'm afraid the decision on the devaluation has already been taken deliberately. So the new "price" of around 10K should also give people a clue about the extent to which LH is willing to commit to "HON service as we know it".

So at the end of the day mileage/card/status junkies get their black/gold card and LH takes the money and runs, uh, flies. And everyone is happy and remains so as long as the meaning of "no promises on the one side, no hard feelings on the other" is fully understood. OK fellows?

Last edited by andre1970; Mar 14, 2010 at 12:30 am
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Old Mar 14, 2010 | 1:42 am
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Originally Posted by weero
But what is the incentive there?
Good questions? I guess it is helpful for some of the HONs who just qualified by 600.001k miles. Makes life much more easy for them.

Originally Posted by andre1970
But apparently, LH is cash constrained (OK, time to sell ) and needs money now. And how beautiful it is to have the option to (partially) "borrow" cash against a liability whose terminal value is fully under your control... You can always enhance the program and, boom, your debt goes down by as much as you want.

So, I guess, it makes perfect sense for both sides: LH can't count on anyone's loyalty nowadays to partially secure medium-term liquidity, for the simple reason that nobody's unconditional loyalty can be thought as "given" nowadays.

And no, it is not the small/large/medium influx of new Cessna HONs the factor that will lead to the devaluation of the program. I'm afraid the decision on the devaluation has already been taken deliberately. So the new "price" of around 10K should also give people a clue about the extent to which LH is willing to commit to "HON service as we know it".
Nice analysis and I pretty much agree with you ^

And how beautiful it is to have the option to (partially) "borrow" cash against a liability whose terminal value is fully under your control... You can always enhance the program and, boom, your debt goes down by as much as you want.
While I agree that it is an easy why to generate cash it would probably be a better deal for LH to simply sell HON cards for 20k EUR and the black market
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Old Mar 14, 2010 | 1:58 am
  #60  
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Originally Posted by andre1970
So at the end of the day mileage/card/status junkies get their black/gold card and LH takes the money and runs, uh, flies. And everyone is happy and remains so as long as the meaning of "no promises on the one side, no hard feelings on the other" is fully understood. OK fellows?
i also agree with this summary.
however, at the end,this is a p.r. opportunity for LH, they get LHPJ back to the "headlines" of the communities and travel magazines, plus business is slow and the extra movements do not hurt.
how many people will do MRs via this? some hardcore FTers in GER (+ VFT...), 60 pax? 80? most of them will do 2 segments, so what the heck?
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