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-   -   Consolidated "Points Devaluation" thread (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/hilton-hilton-honors/129148-consolidated-points-devaluation-thread.html)

HansGruber Jun 4, 2014 9:26 am


Originally Posted by mspreh (Post 22976704)
Quote:
Based on this they are renting less rooms. The revenue is up by 3.5%, yet the room rates are up by 6.6%, and enough of the revenue increase came from Franchise Fees for them to make note of that. So it looks like Hilton is charging more, filling less rooms to me, and the increase in rates made up for the loss in business.

Actually the increased occupany. All 3 of the chains you mentioned did.

"(The industry is) back to peak occupancy. It's a very healthy place in the cycle right now. We would expect greater increases in pricing," Beynon added.

Hilton's total occupancy rose to 69.8 percent in the quarter from 67.9 percent last year.

Marriott International Inc (MAR.O), Hyatt Hotels Corp (H.N) and Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc (HOT.N) have also reported better-than-expected first-quarter earnings and announced plans to return cash to shareholders through stock buybacks.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A4807N20140509

pinniped Jun 4, 2014 10:01 am


Originally Posted by IcHot (Post 22976861)
Depends. Did they shrink their base and have to rely on strong market rates that are dependent on the economic strength? That would suggest a harder path to growth long term.

It seems like the whole travel industry is pursuing this course right now. Tighten supply, focus on the business travelers, and take steps to send the leisure travelers (if they still exist) to your competitor.

Granted, hotels can't as visibly tighten supply as airlines and rental car agencies can. But with deep-discount weekend rates getting less common, it makes me think they *can* reduce staff and services at off-peak times, even if they aren't physically taking rooms out of inventory. And compared to previous economic growth cycles, it does seem like there's less new property construction overall.

In other words, I don't get the sense that the big chains are aggressively seeking long-term growth. They're seeking short-term margins. Airlines are doing the same. Since there isn't that aggressive upstart competitor out there driving rapid share-of-market growth (e.g., no "Southwest effect" of the 80's and 90's), there's no reason for the big boys to get cut-throat on pricing in an attempt to woo each other's customers.

Another thing to keep in mind: the program devaluations are in effect major price increases that fly under the radar. If someone were to study it that way, hotel net costs and airline net costs are up a lot more than they appear on base rate alone vs. 10 years ago. (Of course, I had some HH stays in 2000 or so where, using that kind of math, I was getting paid by HH to occupy the room. So I can see where you don't want to go *too* far with it. :D)

StangGT909 Jun 4, 2014 10:59 am

I used to be diamond via business travel
Now I'm 90% leisure.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall earning points at the rate you can now back 3-4 years ago.

Citi Reserve = x 10 points at Hilton
Amex Surpass = x 12 points at Hilton
3X everywhere else

Some times good quarterly bonuses....

Even without trying that hard, you can put your cell phone, bills, etc. on the credit card along with regular spending and rack up a ton of points.

So doesn't the increased point earning just balance out with the increase in redemption?

fozziedoggie Jun 4, 2014 11:14 am


Originally Posted by StangGT909 (Post 22977417)
So doesn't the increased point earning just balance out with the increase in redemption?

Sadly no. Not with the introduction of new categories (1-10) and seasonal points pricing. Many of the high-end WA, Conrad and Hiltons in key destinations now start at 80K-90K per night. Even with placing ALL of my spending on a co-branded CC, it won't net me more than 2-3 days for one of these inspirational properties. The old AXON and GLON awards are now hit/miss; even with the "5th night free" scheme, these top properties are points expensive and sometimes points elusive. :td:

For more informaton, check out posts #1 through #11 here: http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/hilto...ne-2013-a.html

pinniped Jun 4, 2014 11:23 am


Originally Posted by StangGT909 (Post 22977417)
I used to be diamond via business travel
Now I'm 90% leisure.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall earning points at the rate you can now back 3-4 years ago.

Citi Reserve = x 10 points at Hilton
Amex Surpass = x 12 points at Hilton
3X everywhere else

Some times good quarterly bonuses....

Even without trying that hard, you can put your cell phone, bills, etc. on the credit card along with regular spending and rack up a ton of points.

So doesn't the increased point earning just balance out with the increase in redemption?

Conquest Bonuses. Nothing more needs to be said.

Okay, okay, I know that wasn't exactly sustainable. :o

But juicy bonuses have always been a big part of this program. Obviously that can itself lead to inflation if they are capitalized upon by many.

Only difference was a few years back, hitting the bonuses at least required a little bit of effort in the way of hotel-hopping. Now you can just churn credit cards.

Some of the best HH stays in my life were funded on Conquest Bonuses. Two honeymoon weeks in Hawaii, two more weeks in Europe, plus a few smaller stays in between.

ILovetheReds Jun 4, 2014 12:03 pm


Originally Posted by pinniped (Post 22977566)
Conquest Bonuses. Nothing more needs to be said.

Okay, okay, I know that wasn't exactly sustainable. :o

But juicy bonuses have always been a big part of this program. Obviously that can itself lead to inflation if they are capitalized upon by many.

Only difference was a few years back, hitting the bonuses at least required a little bit of effort in the way of hotel-hopping. Now you can just churn credit cards.

Some of the best HH stays in my life were funded on Conquest Bonuses. Two honeymoon weeks in Hawaii, two more weeks in Europe, plus a few smaller stays in between.

The free night certificate after every 4th paid stay or 10th night was a great promo. My wife and I both did a lot of hotel hoping during those promos. I would be in Chicago four nights for work and would spend a night in a different hotel each night and end up with a free night for personal travel.

I'm sure it's only a matter of time before Citi/Hilton puts a stop to the credit card churning. In the days of the mint/Charter One, I achieved 2MM status on AA with their credit card and they put a stop to that when they found out how easy it was to get status with the credit card.

StangGT909 Jun 4, 2014 12:23 pm

Well yeah the 80,000 points thing of course stinks, and if you have your heart set a premium date sure that's a lot of points but if you want to make your points go further can't you just shop around dates to get the best deal?

I stayed last summer post de-val at the Bentley over 4th of July and it was $499 a night for a $1000 weekend and it was still 60,000 points a night.

I looked for this July and it's still 60K / night until the winter and most weekends are high $400's a night. If you want to get crazy, New Years Eve is 80,000 points vs $1499 a night.

Just one example, but I think it's pretty awesome to get a room on a premium date that's that expensive for that amount of points.

Plus if you stay 60,000 x 4 nights = 240,000 and you get 5th night free...
That works out to 48,000 per night which is less than what it was pre-deval when it was a 50,000 night hotel.

Pair the 5th night free average room requirement plus the fact that we're earning more from credit cards, I don't see how it's such a deal breaker to quit hilton.

IsleOfMan Jun 4, 2014 1:18 pm

The devaluation happened while I was on a break from travel and in a different job, so I didn't see the whirlwind of discussion on here at the time. I started back traveling in October '13 and jumped right back into HHonors without really knowing what had gone down in my absence.

At first blush, the devaluation doesn't seem to affect me to greatly. I stay mostly at Hampton and HGI, with the occasional big-city Hilton when on business. I also tend to redeem at Cat2/3 properties and often on Points+Cash. I don't stay at high-end resorts or aspirational properties often, either paid or rewards.

Hilton's presence in locations I frequent also prevents me from heavily considering leaving. I can't make top-tier at Marriott because I barely scratch out HHonors Diamond on mostly 1-night stays (mattress hopping). I'm not overly interested in IHG because I'm thoroughly unimpressed with their low-end properties.

SPG and Hyatt are both starting to have presence in the cities I travel (where they had none 3-4 years ago) through the Aloft and Hyatt Place brands, but it seems they are only price-competitive with nearby Hampton/HGI properties about 50% of the time. It's possible I could make top-tier at SPG or Hyatt while maintaining HHonors Gold, but likely at a price premium that might draw attention from my employer.

A more likely scenario would be maintaining mid-tier (SPG Gold, Hyatt Platinum, and HHonors Gold) in all three programs, but this would leave me with fragmented points pools and make redemption for family trips more difficult. Once I hit Diamond this year, I'll probably experiment with a few Aloft and Hyatt Place stays to see if they would be worth splitting my stays across 2 or 3 programs in 2015. I've not ruled it out, but I've put off the decision until 2015 to analyze my full 2014 stay patterns and also see what comes of Hilton's upcoming "accessible lifestyle brand".

linuxmachine Jun 4, 2014 4:25 pm


Originally Posted by IcHot (Post 22976861)
Depends. Did they shrink their base and have to rely on strong market rates that are dependent on the economic strength? That would suggest a harder path to growth long term.

I agree that everyone devalued, but Hilton seemed to handle it with less grace. It is not going to bankrupt Hilton, but there's always a cost.

you could always consider a long term approach. hilton's devaluations hit harder than others, but perhaps the devaluations will be softer than competitors going forward for a little while. sometimes you make these moves that seem devastating, but it's only temporary. plus, customer supply is constantly shifting. older travelers might feel violated, but there's plenty of 20 somethings moving up the ranks to become new customers.

IcHot Jun 5, 2014 9:22 am


Originally Posted by linuxmachine (Post 22979397)
you could always consider a long term approach. hilton's devaluations hit harder than others, but perhaps the devaluations will be softer than competitors going forward for a little while. sometimes you make these moves that seem devastating, but it's only temporary. plus, customer supply is constantly shifting. older travelers might feel violated, but there's plenty of 20 somethings moving up the ranks to become new customers.

Why have a loyalty program anyway? Isn't the idea that a customer for 20-50 years is worth something more than two birds in a bush? I think they squandered a lot of customers they apparently paid dearly for.

I actively seek the best deal for myself at this time because of the devaluation giving me a wake up call. I will occasionally stay at Hilton properties, but the Hhonors program has little to do with my decision and thinking about the program makes me tend to stay elsewhere.

I think they really bungled it by calling reductions "enhancements". I would rather have a accurate presentation of the changes than double speak.

lsumegan Jun 5, 2014 9:24 am


Originally Posted by IcHot (Post 22982872)
Why have a loyalty program anyway? Isn't the idea that a customer for 20-50 years is worth something more than two birds in a bush? I think they squandered a lot of customers they apparently paid dearly for.

I actively seek the best deal for myself at this time because of the devaluation giving me a wake up call. I will occasionally stay at Hilton properties, but the Hhonors program has little to do with my decision and thinking about the program makes me tend to stay elsewhere.

I think they really bungled it by calling reductions "enhancements". I would rather have a accurate presentation of the changes than double speak.

Companies don't value every customer. And those they do value are not valued equally.

flo0816 Jun 5, 2014 9:41 am

I no longer pick a Hilton if something of similar standard is available. On the other hand I have to say that I was quite happy with the early announcement of the devaluation so I was able to burn most of my points before the devaluation deadline. This year I requalified for HH Dia and SPG Plat which is unusual for me because normally I would have tried to focus on one program. For me the lifetime SPG Plat, the personal Ambassador and the lame HH promos were the most important reasons to spend so much time at SPG.

pinniped Jun 5, 2014 10:06 am


Originally Posted by lsumegan (Post 22982888)
Companies don't value every customer. And those they do value are not valued equally.

And we do have to admit, *we* are an atypical audience. The typical guest doesn't care about the detailed nuances in the different programs like we do.

I look at why I first began staying in Marriotts: my corporate rate worked there and there was always one within a couple blocks of my client sites. I might not have stayed there if they had *no* loyalty program, but as long as they had a competitive one that was good enough. (Granted, I didn't even know what made a competitive program at the time...just that they had a "big" program and advertised it quite a bit.)

I think a lot of people are still that way. They find a chain based on their travel patterns and it will take a *lot* to dislodge them from that chain. We Flyertalkers will move for better promos or better awards, but most people won't.

Land-of-Miles Jun 5, 2014 12:58 pm

Hilton is now my third choice but I am lucky enough to get a comped Diamond each year (after 10 years of earning it) from my BA FF scheme.

I prioritise stays at IHG and Starwood and only choose Hilton on cost/availability grounds after not finding any if my 2 preferred options. Hilton used to be first choice for me but after the Devaluation they are a distant third.

gbearbuck Jun 5, 2014 2:10 pm


Originally Posted by StangGT909 (Post 22978010)
Well yeah the 80,000 points thing of course stinks, and if you have your heart set a premium date sure that's a lot of points but if you want to make your points go further can't you just shop around dates to get the best deal?

I stayed last summer post de-val at the Bentley over 4th of July and it was $499 a night for a $1000 weekend and it was still 60,000 points a night.

I looked for this July and it's still 60K / night until the winter and most weekends are high $400's a night. If you want to get crazy, New Years Eve is 80,000 points vs $1499 a night.

Just one example, but I think it's pretty awesome to get a room on a premium date that's that expensive for that amount of points.

Plus if you stay 60,000 x 4 nights = 240,000 and you get 5th night free...
That works out to 48,000 per night which is less than what it was pre-deval when it was a 50,000 night hotel.

Pair the 5th night free average room requirement plus the fact that we're earning more from credit cards, I don't see how it's such a deal breaker to quit hilton.

It was 145k axon for 4 nights (36,250 per night.... even in high season) and two Axon's equaled a week long vacation (check in Saturday night, check out Sunday a week later). The five nights makes leisure travel a bit more difficult (you need to check in Thursday and leave a week and a half later on Sunday to do back to back five nighters).

Regarding the OP... I stayed with HHonnors (mostly due to locations of properties and the fact I know what I'm getting). When Marriot had their Mega Bonus I was sure to spend four nights to get the free night (in the past I didn't bother with that... so I guess you could argue Hilton lost several nights from me however nothing major)... A lifetime designation would refocus my efforts on Hilton...


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