DaDaDan

Delete double post.

DanTravels

Yeah, from (total number of DL elites) to (total number of DL, CO and NW elites). That's a lot more people than can fit on one plane! Where are we going to put them all?

Oh, but wait... they don't all want to be on that plane. And other than MikeMpls, I really don't know any non-DL elites who would choose to fly DL over their "own" airline, unless it was a really good deal or something. Seriously. Sorry to kick the sacred cow, but as someone who flies all 3 if they have good prices... DL is not noticeably better than CO or NW (and I'm being polite to not say more).

It should be very small, since system-wide, it should work out to zero. (Same number of elites, same number of seats.) And, since it should work out to zero, if your upgrade odds are lower than usual on one flight, they should be higher than usual on some other flight.

But that's the same as it is now - there are some routes where it's hard to get upgraded, others where it's easy.

Lemurs

I am a long time CO Gold flyer who split his miles pretty evenly between CO and NW because of the upgrade rules, and avoided DL even though it got me miles because of it. Since I am now JFK-based I'm switching to DL, but only because of the lack of recip rights. As other people have pointed out, having the rights go in BOTH directions doesn't just mean CO/NW Plats will start flying DL more, it also means DL Plats will start flying CO/NW more. It's a net-zero effect in terms of seats-to-elites unless one airline has an outrageously higher percentage of elite flyers than another. Given their matching requirement levels, that seems unlikely.

RobertS975

There is another variable here that often goes unmentioned, and that is route structure. As far as I know, mainline CO is completely hub and spoke and has no point to point flights. But DL has many point to point routes that do not involve hub flights. Thus, a BOS based CO elite can use DL to fly to LAX, LAS, MCO, PBI, TPA, FLL, SRW, CUN, etc on DL nonstops. But to get to any place on CO or NW, one would need to connect at their hubs.

So for elites who are flying from a non-hub city like Boston, more CO and NW elites will migrate over to DL if afforded upgrade opportunities on DL than DL elites going the other way.

My point is simple... the influx of elites from other carriers to DL will be greater than the outflow of DL elites to CO and NW simply because DL flies more point to point. A CO elite in BOS that wants to go to LAS or LAX currently has to connect at a CO hub if they want a chance at an upgrade. This would change if the CO elite could potentially get an upgrade on DL. But what would attract the DL elite to a CO flight unless they were headed to IAH, EWR or CLE?

MikeyZBT

I really wish the SkyTeam airlines honored partner elites with upgrades once the airline's elites have all been upgraded.

For example, my wife and I just flew MIA-PTY-LIM and LIM-PTY-MIA on COPA Airlines and on 3 of the 4 flights, there were open seats in Business and it would have been nice to get those upgrades...

When we asked the Gate Agents for COPA about upgrades, they apologized and said there is no relationship set up with DL yet, but hopefully soon. They did give up priority seating and boarding, however.

DaDaDan

This is not true. System-wide, upgrades will be harder to attain. I don't believe the effect will be big, and I think the benefits to elites will outweigh the costs. But, on-average and across all airlines, upgrades will be harder to attain under a reciprocity system.

Follow my logic here. Pretend two carriers A and B are considering a reciprocal upgrade agreement.

Assumption 1: Equivalency of First Class. Assume that the "first class experience" of carrier A and carrier B is considered the same by passengers.

Assumption 2: Purchases are independent of reciprocity. Assume that the relative attractiveness of the participating airlines to passengers does not change upon the implementation of a reciprocity system. Formally, Pr(Buying A | No reciprocity) = Pr(Buying A | Reciprocity), etc. As an example: I am a DL GM. I therefore try harder to take Delta flights, which is to say, am willing to pay slightly more and/or put up with slightly less convenient schedules. The assumption here is that I will make exactly the same effort to take Delta over other carriers before and after a reciprocity agreement.

Assumption 3: Uniformity of elites to seats across carriers. The number of elites of each variety in carrier A divided by the number of unpurchased FC seats on carrier A is equal to the same statistic for carrier B. I.e. Before reciprocity, upgrade percentages for each elite tier are equal across carriers.

Assumption 4: Uniformity of treachery. Pr(Buying A | Elite status with B) = Pr(Buying B | Elite status with B). B's elites are just as likely to buy from A as A's elites are to buy from B.

(Assumptions 1-4 basically eliminate the possibility of hordes of elites from one carrier flooding the other carrier.)

Claim: Under all these assumptions, upgrades will more difficult under reciprocity. Formally, Pr(Upgrade | Reciprocity) < Pr(Upgrade | No reciprocity).

Additionally:
Pr(Upgrade A elite on A | Reciprocity) < Pr(Upgrade A elite on A | No reciprocity)
Pr(Upgrade B elite on B | Reciprocity) < Pr(Upgrade B elite on B | No reciprocity)
Pr(Upgrade A elite on A | Reciprocity) = Pr(Upgrade B elite on B | Reciprocity) = Pr(Upgrade A elite on B | Reciprocity) = Pr(Upgrade B elite on C | Reciprocity)

The reason for the primary claim as that even without reciprocity, there are occasionally A elites flying B to take advantage of lower fares or more convienient schedules. The opposite is also true. Once reciprocity is introduced, these elites who previously flew the other carrier are now able to upgrade where they were not before. More susinctly, under no reciprocity they were not on an upgrade list competing for FC, but under reciprocity they now are. The primary claim holds even if some of the assumptions are relaxed because it deals only with system-wide averages.

I can describe the effects of relaxing each assumption in another post...if anyone is still interested, but now...I must go to bed.

RobertS975

DaDaDan, I don't know about hordes of elites flooding DL, but my analysis says that MORE elites will come to DL than will leave DL because of the many point to point routes that DL has out of stations like BOS, LAX, LAS, MCO, TPA, FLL, PBI etc. CO and NW passengers can take advantage of DL point to point nonstops and still be eligible to upgrade.

CO and NW will not likely attract an equal number of DL elites unless their final destination is EWR, IAH, CLE, DTW, MSP and perhaps MEM.

Lemurs

You're dismissing a wide swath of the JFK-based DL Elites though. For some, having options to fly direct with CO to more destinations directly from the NYC area rather having to connect elsewhere with DL means they'll be even more likely to choose CO, assuming EWR isn't any more out of the way than JFK. (See: Most of Manhattan) Also, at least among the group of FFers I work with, transcon length stages aren't ones you pick to fly through a hub just because of a "chance" at an upgrade. If I can do SEA-BOS on a non-prefered airline, or SEA-EWR-BOS on a prefered one, I am doing SEA-BOS all the time. YMMV of course.

The other thing to keep in mind is that because CO and NW are so hub-and-spoke, the vast bulk of their FFers are located at those hubs, or commute to-and-from those hubs on a regular basis. A BOS-based CO Plat is doing BOS-EWR 3 times a week as a commuter. DL has more Elites at focus cities because they are DL focus cities!

You have a good point, but there is some counter-balance on the point-to-point argument too.

waltinsocal

This is an excellent point. My prime flight is LAX-ATL which I take many, many times yearly. Delta flies almost every non-stop between these 2 cities. (I believe AirTran may still have one or two non-stops daily but I am not sure). I can assure you that I do not need anymore competition for upgrades on this route. In fact, I got so few as a SM I specifically racked up the miles in Nov.and Dec. to make to GM to improve my chances (and get the higher base mileage bonus). I will not use NW/CO for this route because I would get shipped through Houston, Memphis or MSP. I would not care to use NW/CO for this reason even if those airlines gave me an upgrade for that route. NW/CO people would be much more likely to come over to DL on this route, and many others as was mentioned in the above-quoted post.

Potay

This may/not be an odd thought...

Say I was CO OnePass Gold or NWA Gold and DL Gold Medallion, and I am flying on CO or NWA. I've been with Delta the longest, and hence I would prefer the MQMs & miles be credited towards Skymiles while retaining ability to obtain upgrades on Continental or NWA.

Would it be possible to wait until your upgrade clears on CO/NWA, and then ask them to switch the FF# to my DL number and still keep the upgrade on CO/NWA Metal??

It sounds kinda sneaky, but I suspect there are folks out there who may have done this before or at least tried...

mtparadis

Prove to me mathematically how there will be fewer upgrades than there are now and I'll buy you a drink.

They might be harder to "attain" for some people, simply because there will be more people on the list. If 20 people are on the list for 16 seats on a 738, 80% of them will get upgraded. If DL adds 10 CO/NW elites to the upgrade list, guess what, 16 people still get upgraded. While only 53% of the people on the list now get upgraded, there are still 14 SkyTeam elite members in Y, just as there was under the prior system. They may be different people than in the first circumstance, but if you look at it from a population of SkyTeam elites, the overall upgrade success percentages cannot decrease. In fact, they will increase due to flights that are now not going out full in F with ST elites in Y.

cova

The upgrades needed to be equal within DL/CO/NW elite levels - otherwise the system will not work.

If a CO Plat will be below a DL Silver - then why would a CO Plat ever fly DL and vice versa.

If equal then an Elite will fly a non-stop if available then fly a connecting flight. That opens up more segments.

ie. I fly from DCA-ATL:
On DL - nonstop
On CO - DCA-EWR, EWR-ATL

Hence I am competing for upgrades on two segments versus one if I take the nonstop.

The only issue I see is the equalization of the number of sold F seats. If one airlines sells F too cheap such that it sells out and the other prices it high - then the upgrade opportunities will be affected and then not equal.

DaDaDan

There will obviously be equal or more total upgrades. The problem is exactly what you mention in your second paragraph. Under the current system, not all elites are upgrade-eligible for every flight. Under reciprocity, all elites are upgrade-eligible. The number of upgrade-eligible elites increases and the number of seats available for upgrade remains the same.

You make a good point about seats going out empty under the current system...I'll have to think about this one a bit. But at the very least, if I'm a DL elite, my upgrade probability on Delta will go down under reciprocity, even if we assume no "flooding" of elites in either direction. (I guess that statement also assumes that a CO Plat trumps a DL Gold.)

tasnam

OK so my head is now spinning after reading these three pages.

I am a DL FO and will make DL SM by the end of this year for the first time.

I have booked a flight to POP through Delta.com and most of my flight is on CO metal under DL flight numbers.

I realize the difference between NO/Cannot be done and Unlikely.

Can I get an upgrade on the CO flights or not?

#1 NO not allowed in the rules
or
#2 YES but don't hold your breath.

perhaps #3 other?!!?!!

which is it?

stevekstevek

OK, first, DL FO == Silver Medallion. So, that doesn't make sense, since you also say you are _going_ to make Silver for the first time this year.

If you're on CO metal, it doesn't matter if there's a DL number on it for upgrades.

If you're not a medallion at all yet, the only way you get an upgrade, anywhere, would be if Y is oversold.

Now, assuming you're delta silver by time this happens, then if you're flying on CO metal, would be if CO had reciprocal upgrades with DL. They currently do with NW, but that's gonna end soon, and I wouldn't guess it will ever extend to DL medallions.

So, I would put your chances here at about 1 in 500 if you're not silver already, and 1 in 200 if you are.

Oh yeah, just realized what POP is (puerto plata, Dominican Republic). Even if you were on DL metal, you're not getting upgraded, unless you use miles and you have a YMB fare.

Just be happy you're on CO and not AA; on AA you wouldn't even get peanuts in your tiny coach seat. CO'll probably feed you.