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Old Jun 6, 2023, 5:55 pm
  #5536  
 
Join Date: Dec 2020
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Originally Posted by lindros2
what month?
For December. There are some one-way trips for 19.5k as well
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Old Jun 6, 2023, 8:28 pm
  #5537  
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Stage 1 of the Tour de France is in Bilbao/BIO on 1 Jul

a couple days ago I got what must have been the last two J seats on BIO-AMS the morning of 2 Jul for 25k miles + €65 each

sure, the 1150 flight would be better than the 0650, but no way am I paying $950 each
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Old Jun 7, 2023, 10:34 pm
  #5538  
 
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Originally Posted by font
For December. There are some one-way trips for 19.5k as well
I noticed this jumps to 90-110k if you do R/T originating in the East.
LAX is a steal.
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Old Jun 8, 2023, 5:56 am
  #5539  
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Originally Posted by lindros2
I noticed this jumps to 90-110k if you do R/T originating in the East.
LAX is a steal.
Availability looks limited to Nov - Mar 6th. CLE-HND is more miles (69.6K BE, 85K Main RT), but it has availability in early September. Revenue RT fares are $1031 BE, $1353 Main. Also has availability for next March/April.

Last edited by xliioper; Jun 8, 2023 at 6:09 am
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Old Jun 8, 2023, 11:26 am
  #5540  
 
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Originally Posted by lindros2
did you do it before you saw my post, or after?

I looked and the 44k ones are all gone.
We booked them before I saw your post, we booked on Saturday 6/3.
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Old Jun 8, 2023, 9:58 pm
  #5541  
 
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Originally Posted by chapmanj9
We booked them before I saw your post, we booked on Saturday 6/3.
I heard from a birdie that Delta is (was) doing these down-low (not widely promoted) deals to get all the pent-up skymiles off their books. Folks have just enough for 2-4 people at the lower price, but not the full price. So they’re not using them.

Wall Street is going to start asking questions about liabilities and … this will come up.

It appears to be working.
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Old Jun 9, 2023, 8:48 am
  #5542  
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Originally Posted by lindros2
I heard from a birdie that Delta is (was) doing these down-low (not widely promoted) deals to get all the pent-up skymiles off their books. Folks have just enough for 2-4 people at the lower price, but not the full price. So they’re not using them.

Wall Street is going to start asking questions about liabilities and … this will come up.

It appears to be working.
Not really that different in concept from the monthly 48 hour award Flash Sales they used to run pre-Covid (I think they've only had maybe 2 or 3 since Feb 2020). I doubt Wall Street will get into nitty gritty of award sales.

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Old Jun 9, 2023, 1:19 pm
  #5543  
 
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Originally Posted by xliioper
Not really that different in concept from the monthly 48 hour award Flash Sales they used to run pre-Covid (I think they've only had maybe 2 or 3 since Feb 2020). I doubt Wall Street will get into nitty gritty of award sales.
Not award sales.
The liability adds up. Delta maybe has $2-3 billion steady state, but it may have ballooned to $5-6bn now.

Not sure - haven’t looked at investor talks or footnotes. And it’s complicated.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...7099dex991.htm

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...828/ex99-2.htm
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Old Jun 9, 2023, 2:22 pm
  #5544  
 
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Originally Posted by lindros2
Not award sales.
The liability adds up. Delta maybe has $2-3 billion steady state, but it may have ballooned to $5-6bn now.

Not sure - haven’t looked at investor talks or footnotes. And it’s complicated.
Just to clarify, you are referring to skypesos balances sitting in people's skymiles accounts as the liabilities, right? I suppose that makes sense.
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Old Jun 9, 2023, 2:55 pm
  #5545  
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Originally Posted by pokiame
Just to clarify, you are referring to skypesos balances sitting in people's skymiles accounts as the liabilities, right? I suppose that makes sense.
They are recorded on the books as a liability under "Loyalty Program Deferred Revenue" and it currently sits at about $8B. In addition to reducing liability through award redemptions, they use statistical models to estimate "breakage" (miles that will never be redeemed) and remove those from balance as well.
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Old Jun 9, 2023, 2:57 pm
  #5546  
 
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Originally Posted by xliioper
They are recorded on the books as a liability under "Loyalty Program Deferred Revenue" and it currently sits at about $8B. In addition to reducing liability through award redemptions, they use statistical models to estimate "breakage" (miles that will never be redeemed) and remove those from balance as well.
Wow - that’s a bunch.

And makes sense esp. with people becoming free agents and saying screw you to AA UA DL as exclusive carrier.
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Old Jun 9, 2023, 6:35 pm
  #5547  
 
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Originally Posted by xliioper
They are recorded on the books as a liability under "Loyalty Program Deferred Revenue" and it currently sits at about $8B. In addition to reducing liability through award redemptions, they use statistical models to estimate "breakage" (miles that will never be redeemed) and remove those from balance as well.
Isn't it that they can easily reduce the liability by doing further "enhancements" (i.e., devaluation)? Add an extra zero to all redemption values (10 SM ~= 1 cent, vs 1 SM ~= 1 cent) and - voila! - the $8B becomes $800M.

The recent massive devaluations alone have reduced the value per mile several fold.
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Old Jun 16, 2023, 12:17 pm
  #5548  
 
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I think they fixed the "loophole" of departing from Mexico to OZ/NZ/Asia for less miles. I ran a quick search of MEX to SYD through EOS and see nothing less than 435k one-way.

Last edited by DLATL777; Jun 16, 2023 at 12:31 pm
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Old Jun 16, 2023, 12:38 pm
  #5549  
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Originally Posted by DLATL777
I think they fixed the "loophole" of departing from Mexico to OZ/NZ/Asia for less miles. I ran a quick search of MEX to SYD through EOS and see nothing less than 435k one-way.
Still seeing one-ways to TPE and SIN from 90K. Look to be limited to awards involving CI metal.
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Old Jun 16, 2023, 12:41 pm
  #5550  
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
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Originally Posted by xliioper
Still seeing one-ways to TPE and SIN from 90K. Look to be limited to awards involving CI metal.
All of Australia and NZ seems to be 425k+ through EOS.
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