lindros2

monitoring flights to Seattle next spring.
what used to be $400-600 is now $800-$1100.
it’s crazy.
how much is labor? Dunno.
(note - all inventory is H/K/Q and Y/B/M, so…. Flawed argument from me)

emma dog

Except spread across 200 pax, this is $7.50/hr for the flight.

I think the single pilot “breakthrough” will happen when the shortage gets so bad the industry has no choice.

ATOBTTR

$7.50 x 2 pilots times 4-5 hours of flying time in a given direction (possibly more if connecting to transcons) and then multiplied again by 2 for a round trip means $120-$150 additional per ticket which means an additional $480-$600 in airfare for a family of four. Obviously the $1500/hr figure is obscene but chances are increases for one labor group means other labor groups will also see an increase in labor rates and then start multiplying even slight increases across multiple flights and multiple passengers and small increases become big increases. Oil going up even a few cents costs the airlines millions due to the volume of oil they consume (even when they are able to hedge for some of their fuel purchases).

On the single pilot vs no pilot concept, I wouldn’t be shocked if we see the leap from two man cockpits to unmanned airliners and skip the one-pilot cockpit. I also think we’ll see such movement happen first in cargo operations and success there will then translate over to the passenger side.

readywhenyouare

I'm genuinely curious about this one. And not just for pilots. I see plenty of road warrior consultant types on Flyertalk complain about being gone from home so much as well. I'm wondering why take a job that isn't conducive to the lifestyle you want? The truth of the matter is that people have prioritized flying over their families. It's not the company's fault. These people knew what they were signing up for when they took the job. A job where you are constantly traveling just doesn't mesh well with having a family. But instead of changing careers I guess it's easier to tell the kids it's the company that kept them away from their softball game.

GagaPilot

In all fairness, I think most pilots (including myself) are chasing a childhood dream. The glory days of being a pilot are long gone. I had countless mainline pilots tell me growing up to pursue another career. And now at 31, with 34 years left at current legislative rules, I would tell other kids the exact same. Stay away. Fly for a hobby, and find a career that can support your hobby, and keep you closer to home. On the flip side, company management has become greedy, and the FAA’s “attempt” at scheduling safety with part 117 is a complete joke. Fatigue is real, and the bean counters don’t see it. That’s my feeling with dispatchers and schedulers as well - they are extremely under qualified to be making many of the operational decisions they are. No fault of their own - they are just not the ones in the flight deck - and have minimal training and insight into the operation.

ATOBTTR

Everything is relative. Funny part is I have several USAF friends who have left active duty in the last year (including 4 picked up by Delta in the last few months) who are leaving the military pilot life for the stability of the airline world. After numerous deployments, countless trips for training and exercises, assignments that pull them away from flying or send them to undesirable locations (or even remote assignments that take them away from their family for a year), having to play what they feel as games for promotion in an up-or-out system, moving every 2-4 years, extra duties that add to already long days, among other things, they see the airline lifestyle as a reprieve. I guess time will tell for each of them whether they really view the grass as greener or more stable.

readywhenyouare

Thanks. That's the path I took. I have a couple of friends in the 135 world and they seem to be quite content. That's likely what I would have done had a chosen to make a career out of flying.

flyerCO

Technology wise it's already possible. However aviation (especially passenger aviation) is about having multiple redundancies. Nothing changes, at least until people are much more trusting of technology. Look how long it took to allow dual engine TATL/TPAC.

jrl767

the 767-200 entered service in summer 1982; per a Jan 1989 OAG I see a few TATL 767s: BRU/LIS/ZRH-JFK (TW), FRA/ORY/ZRH-JFK and MAN/FRA-ORD (AA), AMS-BOS/ORD (LY; unpublished stop en route from TLV)

at initial delivery the jet was capable of 90-minute ETOPS; it took years to accumulate enough operational reliability data to extend to 120 minutes (even in early 1985 California-Hawaii was still the province of three- and four-engine jets) and ultimately 180 minutes

a major consideration for the airlines was of course the longer flight tracks needed to meet the time limitations, and I’m not sure whether these 1989 flights were subject to the 120-minute condition

at program launch in 1990, Boeing declared that the 777 would be designed and certified for 180-minute ETOPS “out of the box”; a substantial portion of the analyses relied on 757/767 experience and data … the inaugural UA flight in Jun 1995 was LHR-IAD

readywhenyouare

I think this is going to be a case of when push comes to shove. And to be clear, I'd much rather keep two pilots in the flight deck. But like many athletes and actors who thought the sky is the limit as far as their salary is concerned, they're going to get burned at some point. The mainline pilots are not acting in good faith in my opinion. Look at the E175 for example. The E175 E2 holds the same amount of passenger as the first generation E175 but because it has gained a little weight due to new engines, etc, the pilots are saying it must be flown by mainline at exceptionally higher wages. That just won't work and is completely unfair to the airline as they had no control over the matter.

DLASflyer

CNBC says MAX order tomorrow, A220 order Tuesday. If so, big two days for Delta.

N830MH

Fingered crossed!! I'll believe it when I see it!

halls120

My nephew is a former USAF pilot who is now a commercial pilot; he left for all the reasons you have set out above.

SonicStar817

Guess its happening:

lsquare

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/18/delt...-a-decade.html

It's now official! I personally would have preferred DL to be all Airbus.