bergamini

I've thought about this the past few weeks and am still fine with Delta defining how their eligibility works for medallion tiers. But I do think it's a wise idea to add a rollover MQD concept. My work travel keeps changing but I have a ORD/PEK MR the weekend before Thanksgiving and then I'm, at long last, a DM. But now I've got a lower Manhattan project in December and I'm thinking, well UA has direct flights MSN>EWR which actually is a faster drive to lower Manhattan than the DL MSN>LGA direct flights so maybe I fly UA to save some time and get more miles there since MQM's without MQD's to back them up are going to be basically worthless next year.

I'm torn on the $250K waiver. I do think it's because they are contractually obliged to offer a waiver. I just don't know how many DM's are doing manufactured spend.

davetravels

THIS made me laugh!!!

SuperG1955

I posted (far upthread) that I'd do an analysis before making any decisions about what to do. Obviously, what works for us doesn't work for others, but here's how our outlook shapes up. We both travel for business and pleasure. Before the announcement we had shifted my wife's decreased travel to 100% GAP fares for a number of reasons, so UG's become moot for her.

Yesterday I had my first miss of an UG since Feb 10th. 36 MQS between misses ( some FCM and a couple ineligible). This was ATL-LAX where I was 15 of 55 for 0 seats on a 772. F was sold out, as was C+ before the UG window so it wasn't SDC's or last minute purchases but FCM played a role. I really do feel for the true road warriors although our decisions about how we're going to proceed won't help them.

We'll definitely stay with DL for my travel. Lots of reasons including our NRSA benefits. As an AMEX waiver DM, I ran the numbers for myself and concluded that we'll keep our DL Reserve cards. The cash value of the benefits to us, exceeds the cost of the cards. Just the 90K RDM's at a minimum of $.01 each do that. We book our Airfare on the AMEX Plat for the 5 points rather than the 2 for the Reserve card.

I ran numbers for making $15K MQD. I'll go into 2018 with over 125K rollover MQM's and will get 30K from my Reserve Card during the year so MQM's aren't an issue. I'll requalify as a PM as soon as my Reserve hits $25K.

My average MQD for this year is $.064 cpMQD and $.075 cpMQM. If I carry those forward, which I can do, that would mean ~235K BIS MQM or 157K in F at an all in cost of ~$17,600 to hit $15K MQD. There's no way I can justify that expenditure so I'll be a PM for 2019.

An analysis of my routes and tickets indicates that if I buy GAP fares, I can get 95K MQM with 64K purchased for under $5,000 all in. Adding + 30K AMEX boosts, I will retain my PM benefits without reducing my rollover, primarily Award Redeposits, SDC's and ST+. I'll also increase my pointy part of the plane percentage from 87% to 100% with a choice of seats (only aisle, no bulkheads). I'll also be at 750K Lifetime and can complete my quest to become a MM in 2 more years, no real benefit but something I started and would like to complete. I might even replace one of my 30+ year old Tumi bags,
The downside - no GUC's. That means we shift one TATL from cheap fare sale + GUC to NRSA. SKY Club - not an issue, I have lifetime and we both have AMEX DL Reserve, AMEX regular Plat and Priority Pass, We'll have to pay a little more for Clear and we lose 2 Choice Benefits but the GUC's and RUC's become meaningless, we'll take the RDM's

I feel badly for the DM on the UG list (even with a GUC or RUC) who loses out to a PM on a GAP with FO bag tags but it just goes to show that working within the system (some call it gaming) will really only result in the loss of another metal bag tag for me.

Kind of funny but my spend for 2018 will decrease from this year without any meaningful loss of benefits.

burbanite

Same route a couple of days ago, I was 12 of 50+. First time all year I have been out of the top 5 and most times it was top 3.

Great personal analysis and a good example of how we are all different in our needs/wants/spending patterns.

davetravels

I guess a Newbie Platinum / former Diamond in 2019 will be lucky to be seated in seat 97E on that flight!

SuperG1955

Thank you.

wxman22

I too was NYC based until recently. I'd earn about 40,000 MQM and only 3500 25MQD a year, so i was barely Silver.

I was stupid about the Delta Amex card, but that's another story.

I'll end 2017 with 90,000 MQM and 8,000 MQD.

WHILE I have and Delta Amex card, I'll still never hit $25,000 since I'm too many places that don't take it.

My point is that Delta probably has a lot of Silvers just like me. So while it helps Amex and adds to Delta's bottom line, at some point, they may understand that it doesn't help the airline keep loyal flyers.
Just loyal card users.

KKinLA

I will end this year with about 120,000 MQM and about 12,000 MQD's assuming I don't book any more flights this year.

I haven't made a decision on what to do. There is no way I will charge $250,000 on my reserve card. And I am not going to budget $1,250 a month for travel on Delta just to keep Diamond status. I spend more than $15,000 a year on airline travel but Delta is not always the most convenient or competitively priced and I pay for my own travel.

So for me:

Option 1 - Do not fly Delta at all for the rest if this year and rollover 45,000 MQM. Keep the reserve card and earn an additional 30,000 MQM next year and effectively keep Platinum status for two more years without ever stepping foot on a Delta plane. I have been mostly buying first class or business class anyways for the last three years and would still fly Delta if they were the lowest price (which is possible with the Pay with Miles option).

Option 2 - Make Diamond this year and burn my last 4 GUC's next year, cancel both my DL Amex cards and become a free agent.

Neither of these options will increase my spending on Delta. The funny thing is I used to regularly spend $20,000 a year on Delta but the value equation just isn't there anymore and my spending level at Delta has dropped in each of the last five years even though my total travel spending has remained constant.

rileydogmi

IMO, Delta alienated their DM high spend loyal fliers who don't generate that extreme Amex spend (my AMEX spend is ~$100k) - I sit at ~$30k MQD this year but after me loosing the waiver, my rollovers are only as good as I continue to travel this heavy. Who knows how long my heavy travel will last. I have ~750k MQM's so for me, I plan to drop back to $15,000 in DL spend in 2018 and free agent the other flights to get high status elsewhere. At $15,000 spend I will more than likely make 125k MQM and thus, maintain my MQM stash (for whatever that is worth). I have no incentive to stay completely with DL because why accumulate MQM's and get no more benefit to spend over $15,000 with DL in a year? I am in it for the GUC's - I use them for my 2x per year family vacations. I have horrible luck with RUC's (~50% success, have a few that will expire).

I wish DL would reward high spenders by
- Rollover MQD (ideal)
- Getting an extra choice reward for every $2,500 MQD above DM qualification - but allow to continue to choose GUC's - e.g. a choice at $17,500, $20,000, etc.

To enhance the AMEX relationship, I would eliminate the free SC access altogether and have a $2,500 MQD discount be one of the DM choice benefits. Now that would be great because the AMEX reserve would now be worth it and I could get a discount applied for the next qualification year.

Sad, because for the first time in 20 years (I was loyal NW, then DL) I did a search for a "GAP" flight and UAL FC was ~20% cheaper. After staring at the "buy now" button for a few minutes and taking another sip of wine, I clicked it. I just 1k status matched and booked 90 days of travel to meet the 90 day requirements to be 1k until 1/2019. I do not expect UA to be better than DL - but, with UL status + DL status I can get twice as many GUC's for the same spend level I have keeping it all with DL. Heck, if I spend what I did this year I can probably get 10 GUC's across the two airlines whereas I only get 4 with DL... (UA gives you more GUC's for extra spend above their $10k)

I will be cancelling two DL AMEX CC's (Wife's PL, my Reserve) but keep my AMEX PL to purchase my DL tickets with. And, I will buy the cheapest "GAP" flights in 2018 and I will monitor my spend to just meet the $15,000 DL spend. At least that is my strategy until next September when DL and UA announce all new "enhancements" to reward their most loyal flyers.

jrl767

remember that $15k MQD is really about $17-18k in total ticket price as taxes etc don’t count

xliioper

So, you went from loving this change to hating it in the space of a few months?

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/28571513-post84.html

rileydogmi

Yes - I did change my perspective after it was announced. When I posted that I was flying DL when I was trying to use RUC's and got blocked out a few times (twice ended #1 of 0). I also had a few flights not in "GAP" where I was #1 0+ on the UL for a few seats. My initial reaction was less DM's would mean more space but that is also a flawed thought. FCM is what is killing space, not DM's. I also didn't really compute the whole MQM thing and the value until the announcement. So yes, I did the math post announcement and that led me to change my perspective on this.

DP-340

That makes sense. I thought $50k would had been reasonable for DM (twice PM) and could not understand a 10 times multiplier.

DP-340

100% with you

rylan

Bingo!