ATOBTTR

Mrs. ATOBTTR and I had been debating whether or not we wanted to another trip to Europe next year since recently returning from one back in May or if we wanted to wait a little while longer before heading back. But with the announced changes, and not wanting to see my Skymiles devalued to a PWM rate (and thus not being able to snag J to Europe again, unless I wanted to shell out 500,000 per person that I don't have), we decided that we're going to go next year. I found two J awards at Low (125,000 miles per person) for next May/June on miles partners (it could be that partner redemption levels don't change, but didn't want to chance that either). As of now, we have a KL 747 on the outbound and the AF A380 on the return. Can't wait.

sdsearch

Except now Delta is running a redemption "sale" (10k round trip some routes, 20k round trip some other routes), "The Great 48 Escape":
so that'll confuse people who aren't paying attention even more, and they'll say "see, Delta has some good redemptions". Many of those, of course, are just short routes. It's sort of like AA's reduced mileage awards from Citi, except in Delta's case it doesn't require having a particular credit card. But the people who don't know much may have been planning to use 25k miles RT on a short route (that's inexpensive in dollars) anyway!

aurelien75017

I apologize if this has been posted before. While I have read most of this thread, I can't say I have read all the pages.

In terms of new Skymiles pricing, everybody is freaking out (rightly so) about the huge increase in miles needed for flights after 6/1/16.

However, if Delta is 100% doing dynamic pricing, would it be possible that they are now pricing these at the highest price possible, thinking it will get the most value out of people who want to book early (because it was how everyone who wanted great deals on free tickets before), and that if loads are not good, these could come down significantly ?

In other words, could the jump we are saying not be absolute but a way to change how/when people book trips using miles?

Just so I am super clear (because I am not sure I am): if right now LAX-SYD one way is let's say 350k on 6/1 in D1, who is to say it can't come down to 175k or even (let's be crazy for the purpose of the argument) 50k closer to the flight date because Delta is having trouble filling the D1 cabin?

thanks for your insights.
A

pbd456

do u see delta lowing the cash price of business class ticket if thet were not filling up? delta has been talking about pricing integrity... and i dont expect it to come down significantly. even at 175k, it is the high level currently.

aurelien75017

I have actually. I would argue there are plenty of routes when the cash price a year out is expensive, and closer to the date, you see inventory in lower fare classes being opened if the flight isn't filling up as fast as anticipated by revenue management

I have no idea whether the price would ever go down to be lower than current but I thought I would bring this up as I could see this scenario happening at least on some routes

A

sfozrhfco

There is no indication at this point that just because the cash price is lowered that the number of points required for a redemption is lowered as well. Just look at a simple one way from SFO to LAX in F class tomorrow. The 8AM flight is $424.10 cash/55,000 points. The 9AM is 265.10 cash and also 55,000 points. The latter values each point at less than a half a cent which would be a horrible redemption value. Seems the dynamic part on this route only applies to the upward direction and not when the price goes down.

aurelien75017

you're absolutely right that there is no indication at this point. But I am hoping that come 6/1/16 there might. Just trying to keep an optimistic outlook. But again you may very well be right.

javabytes

There's nothing magical that's going to happen on 6/1/16 next year. The changes are already in effect. Dynamic award pricing applies to flights booked today for travel on or after June 1, 2016.

gooselee

We flew this combination in reverse last year - AF A380 east, KL 747 back (and got the new WBC, too). It was a great trip!

We debated UD vs. nose on the 747 for a while, but eventually settled on the UD as Mrs. Lee had never ridden upstairs before. Wish all of life's decisions were that hard.

Dieuwer

Called AMEX to solicit for a retention bonus in order for me to keep the card and pay the AF. AMEX threw me a skinny bone of a measly 1,000 Skymiles.
Insulted, I cancelled the card ASAP.

ATOBTTR

We have the UD for the KL 747 (and for the A380 too). That's a bucket list item for me - ride on the upper deck of the 747. And although she usually just leaves all the flight reservations to me and lets me have my fun ("Do what you want - just tell me when I need to be ready to go"), in this case Mrs. ATOBTTR is nearly as I excited as I am for the upper deck.

arkangel

A couple of weeks ago we flew UD on our ATL-AMS 747. While at the gate, and getting settled into our seats, I noticed that the flight deck door was open and therefore headed forward with camera in hand. The pilot introduced himself, and his co-pilot, and asked if I would like to have my photo taken in his seat. Is the Pope catholic?! A great souvenir!! He also indicated that this bird, and perhaps all the other NW 747's, would be retired in 2017. On our CDG-DTW 747 return we opted for seats in the nose. A nice experience, but the UD seemed to be a little more private, and our preference.

Fred 3

I did some random flights, and yes found BOS- SYD next summer at 600k+ for a business seat, which is absurd, but I also found some MSP-Europe at 120k business, which is tolerable.

What bothers me even more is that I was looking to go from MFR to PHL next summer, and 325 days out, a coach seat is 60k+ I know there are only 2 flights, on DL, but I just don't see that many people booking flights from MFR 325-331 days out for the low flight.

I totally get what Delta is doing. It makes good business sense. However, those who fly to little airports again get the shaft

MikeyZBT

Wow.... we used to be able to book an M fare US-Europe and use 25,000 miles each way to upgrade. So, 50,000 miles total.

Under this new system, I'll have to use 120,000 miles to upgrade roundtrip US-Europe, even in an M fare? That is NUTS!

javabytes

Yep. That's what just happened to this guy who upgraded from a B fare. 120k. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delta...g-tickets.html