WestSideBilly

2 is entirely likely, if not probable, but I think you're misunderstanding my point about RA's comments. I don't think RA is uninformed (someone else said that), but he's not consistent. Discarding the 777X from consideration because it's "experimental" but then including the A350-10 (a paper airplane derived from a plane that only recently flew) and the A330NEO (a plane that doesn't even exist outside of informal discussions and magazine articles) is inconsistent. Saying you want a plane with a certain mission profile, and then only considering planes that are larger and fly further while discounting the one plane that actually fits the mission profile (and would probably be really cheap and is most definitely not "experimental" - right up Delta's alley) is not consistent. Issuing an RFP which includes 2 paper airplanes (A350-1000 and 787-10) and one phantom airplane (A330NEO), and which includes 5 airplanes which would fall under the category of "new" (A350-900/-1000 and 787-8/-9/-10), when your airline never buys "new" planes, is inconsistent. Lamenting that the 757 was never really replaced after it was ended in 2003 is inconsistent with what all the airlines were doing - replacing the 757 with 737 and A320 models (admittedly under different industry/economic situation). Boeing has supposedly considered a 757 replacement, and would probably go forward if a certain airline who operates the most 757-200s would come forward and be a launch customer with a 100-plane order - except Delta never buys "new" planes.

The MAX9 and 321NEO have a fairly similar profile to the 752 but I don't see Delta's name in the order book for either. As I said in a previous post, until Delta is willing to get in early on new planes with large orders, they're not going to have any say in what Airbus and Boeing make.

WestSideBilly

It seems like a nice mix of 748i and 763 orders, heavily discounted to keep those lines going for a few more years, would be right up Delta's alley... but you're right, the bean counters will do their thing whether it makes operational sense or not.

MikeyZBT

Get the 747-8... Nothing like the look of a 747... any configuration, it's the most beautiful.

MikeyZBT

Yes, would love this.

pbarnette

1) There is a big difference between stretching a plane that has flown and one that hasn't flown at all, especially when you are looking at a minimum 2 to 3 year head start.

2) There is a big difference between re-engining a plane and one that hasn't flown. And again, the time to entry is significant.

There are two mission profiles to be filled. The A333neo would fit one well and the A351 would fit the other pretty well.

Early adopters don't get planes designed for them. Potentially large customer segments get planes designed for them. Boeing isn't going to design a plane because DL says they will buy 100, they design planes because they think several carriers will buy hundreds of them.

WestSideBilly

Delta won't consider the CSeries because nobody else is flying it yet... but they'll consider a plane that isn't even designed? Inconsistent.

An A333NEO would probably be a heavier plane with longer range (say, 260 tonne / 6600 nmi), which brings you back to his statement that you can't make money underflying the 772. The same statement would make the 358/359 equally unacceptable. Again, inconsistent.

No argument on the 351. 10-12% capacity cut but much better economics (will be tough to get 16 built to replace the 744s by 2020 though, with first delivery ~2018). Alternative would be 748 which is 10-12% capacity increase and marginally better economics - no issue with timing though. If you accept that the 351 isn't "experimental" this is the only logically consistent part of this whole thing.

Early adopters who pledge large orders get a say in the configuration. The big preorders are coming from the middle east and Asian carriers. They all want range, and lots of it. Delta (and I imagine, to some degree, United and American) wants planes that have a shorter range and aren't lugging around unnecessary weight. But since Delta won't be an early adopter, won't be a launch customer, it would be a really tough sell to get Boeing (or Airbus) to make a 752 replacement (220 pax / 4500 nmi?) that probably has a market of 500 planes, of which 1/4 would probably have to go to Delta. RA's words are saying "we want this", but DL's checkbook and ordering history won't back it up. Inconsistent.

mmichael453

Honest question: why the hate for the 3L3? I've flown both the updated 763s and 3L3s of late (in Y mind you), and I don't really see much difference between them. The 763s have one less middle seat in each row, but the larger fuselage diameter of the 3L3s seem roomier to me. Otherwise there doesn't seem to be much to distinguish them. Now that they're all updated with lie-flats for the where's-my-pre-takeoff-drinks crowd, they seem pretty equal in front too. And on the 3L3s the business elite crowd doesn't have to be bothered as much with Y passengers trooping through on boarding either.

I know a fair amount of people like to poo-poo the Airbuses in general because 'Merica! and all, but in general when it comes to Delta's metal, I personally don't see much difference usually, and have also preferred the 320s to the 73Hs (for instance).

Of course, I might just have a different opinion, as I like the 717s that everyone else likes to put down too.

readywhenyouare

My problem with Airbus has nothing to with where they are built. I fly on plenty of Embraer (Brazil) and Bombardier/Candair (Canada) aircraft. Boeing has had it's problems but they acknowledge them and fix them. Airbus has never admitted that any of their aircraft have a flaw and instead sneak in changes under the guise of "performance enhancements" or blame a design flaw on pilot error (AA 587). There have been over 30 incidents of uncommanded rudder movements on Airbus A300/310 aircraft and Airbus turns a blind eye. I also don't care for their philosophy of a "flight protection system". News flash, their planes still crash. Limiting the pilot on what they can and can't do just doesn't sit well with me. Fed Ex 705 would have had a much more tragic ending had they been in an A330. The flight protection system would never have allowed the first officer to make those maneuvers. I'll stick to flying on the Boeing, MD, Embraers, and CRJ's. Hey, one less person on the upgrade list.

TheMoose

And perhaps Asiana Flight 214 would have had a less tragic ending had they been in an A330. And who knows what's going on with MH 370.

Instead of fearing something that has never happened, only something that could, possibly happen "in theory", put your faith in the hands of Delta's pilots and their training program. At the end of the day, the human factors on the flight deck matter far more than whether you're riding in the back of a Ford or a Chevy.

readywhenyouare

Buddy, it seems every time I discuss an aircraft manufacturer you come out of the woodwork. You prefer Airbus, no problem. Leave me out of it. If you want to know more about my background feel free to PM me. Otherwise just note that I have enough background for an educated opinion.

pbarnette

Even 6600 would be 15% lower than a 777. That seems consistent.

You should note the plural carriers in your statement. Nobody disputes the notion that multiple carriers want planes with range. Heck even DL wants some planes with range. There is a big market for planes like the 777. But you know what the flipside is? The A380. That's what happens when you only one customer wants to buy any quantity of your plane. And DL is not EK in terms of orders. DL can want whatever they want. No new-sheet airplane will get built without a clear path to 1k+ orders very quickly. Heck, given Airbus thought they had that with the A380 and are now looking down the barrel of a massive commercial failure.

I don't care whether DL promises to buy 150 757 replacements, it ain't getting built unless there is a big market. You know what could get built? An A330 with new engines.

Frankly, I'm not sure you know what inconsistent means.

relangford

In the past, Delta has been reluctant to be the first with new designs. And, as to the 747-8i, it is beautiful, large, but fuel-inefficent. It seems only cargo carriers have been interested. It is sad (I love the 747 and it was the very first aircraft I ever rode on), but the 747 had probably seen the end of a long and glorious run (I am aware that some South American cargo companies are still using the ancient DC-3). As Airbus is finding out, any 4-engine aircraft is becoming a dinosaur. I would be delighted to see the -8i flying on many airlines, but it isn't going to happen. The "us-versus-them" of Airbus and Boeing will never be settled, with each side having their own opinion.

FN-GM

What about all the rudder problems with the Boeing 737? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_737_rudder_issues

Also the 787 battery issues? They had a battery fire during testing and ignored it.

What about all the 747s that needed modifications to stop the central fuel tank from blowing up/

The boeing 747 Cargo door fault - http://www.montereypeninsulaairport.com/

737's have a nice record of holes appearing in them.

The boeing isn't as perfect as you make out.

readywhenyouare

Did you even bother to read my entire post? Do you remember reading this part?...


Also, I see you are from England. Do you have a regional bias? As I said earlier, I don't. Europe delivers some great engineering but I just don't care for the Airbus "flight protection envelope" and prefer the philosophy of Boeing, Embraer, and Bombardier.

BER Flyer

Sorry, but some of you guys are really into something. Buying new B763? Really? Do you understand that these birds are outdated right now and would only sell because they are cheap? And that DL would have an huge CASM disadvantage flying them on TATL missions in 10 years? And in 20+ years ( DL's common timeframe for newly bought aircraft ) these would be dino's in the air like a B707/727 would be today.
B747-8 are out as DL don't want a plane that size which is THAT thirsty and they could get dozens of used B747's for nothing right now. If DL wanted the B747 in the fleet in 20 years from now they would habe bought the pre-owned BA/LH/CX birds already.