technole

Where? It's certainly not at SEA where they have wide bodies going across both oceans. That is where the $$ is being pumped-in. Plus you have DL's SEA-LHR coming online as well to effectively help push AA/BA out of the global market share.

LAX? DL already has that covered, and DL/AS do share some gates at terminal 4 so the experience is seamless even if you still want to fly AS LAX-SEA or even LAX-MEX.

There isn't a material benefit for them to drop DL for AA, that would be one arm cutting the other off.

Dropping AA for DL might have made sense but we don't know what kind of deal if any was presented to Brad Tilton and Company. If you were AS, it would make material sense to be a codeshare whore and play the strengths of each of them for revenue.

LarkSFO

You mean stick with the status quo...

DL brings so much to the table that is a positive for AS, it's just that now DL wants to keep more for themselves, to the detriment of AS.

As somebody alluded to, sequence of events:

AS revenue / profits increasing
- Some of this directly attributable to their relationship with DL. This share likely growing, and I would guess quite profitable as DL is doing the marketing / selling of many of these tickets

DL: "AS, we like our relationship and all, but we're doing more of the work and you are getting more of the benefit." "We want to renegotiate ourselves a larger cut of the revenue / profit."

AS: "Pound sand."

DL: "OK, we will show you who is the boss. We are adding flights to everywhere including many of your most profitable routes."

AS: "We can play that game. PQM's for everyone, and we'll add some routes to DL strongholds too."

Which leads us to where we are today.

Either the relationship sours and ends from this point, or AS (I really think it is AS) will come to their senses and agree to terms that are more favorable to DL.

The minute this happens, DL backs off on many of their new routes.

Of course, this flies in the face of my original premise. But, after hearing more feedback and giving it more thought I have to believe that AS will come to realize that losing DL will hurt them, more than it is worth.

technole

It is likely in the end it will be DL telling AS to pound sand and agree to their terms when the contracts come up again. DL is in SEA permanently just like NW was. Their corporate contracts in SEA with Amazon and Microsoft for-example is big enough to not ignore and AS isn't likely to bleed themselves to cut them off.

You can bet DL was watching as AS was selling some 737NGs, has a limited Boeing order book and limited growth capacity. So the ability to retaliate is only via Horizon and extended airtime with their 737s mainly to RON in SLC instead of elsewhere. So it's not like AS can do THAT much to dilute DL yields. There is no way AS can win in the end when you look at the financials.

I dispute the point about dropping SEA routes in the end, as long as DL stays out of inter-alaska they can remain frienemies without a problem in some revised agreement. It really does make sense for DL to stay in markets like SEA-PDX. AS flies Horizon Q400s there, and DL is moving to the E175 in that market. That isn't a hard decision if you were an AS/DL flier.

If anything they should short-haul markets to complete the DL hub like YYJ, GEG, and BOI (seemed like AS made the first strike there adding more flights to send a message).

hazelrah

'cause in these David vs. Goliath struggles it always ends well for Goliath.

quasihumanist

Actually it is.

QX flies the Q400 something like 18 times a day. DL (well OO) is going to fly the E75 5 times a day.

So, on average, you either have the Q400 when you want it, or you have the E75 an hour earlier or later than you want it.

If the flight is going to cost you an extra hour because it's at the wrong time, you might as well drive. It's not that far.

MSPeconomist

Even without differences in aircraft type, many DL elites would prefer to be on DL metal because of the higher upgrade priority (although that's not the same as the actual upgrade percentages). So some people are more willing to take DL TPAC flights exSEA, for instance, if they can book the domestic connections on DL operated flights.

For similar reasons, aircraft types come into play when someone is considering a paid BE ticket. For the fare charged, it's reasonable to want and expect the connecting flights to have FC except from tiny airports.

technole

Everyone I know flies this route, and AS was making a pretty penny since they do fill up. You can fly for the day and can come home for supper. Just like your usual DCA-LGA shuttle. This isn't a dump excess QX capacity route like how US did with LGA-PHL.

DL's times are pretty good though, and who is to say OO won't add more if they feel is needed we saw SFO-LAX become a shuttle operation, who is to say this won't either?

pbarnette

It could be more profitable. It could also provide unicorns to AS management. My guess is that AS would have a tough, tough, tough time extracting more profit from am AA agreement that seems to generate 40% less revenue, but anything is possible, even if not probable.. If they do somehow manage to do it, then I would think AA will be along shortly to renegotiate.

As for the AA relationship growing with the merger. Remember that US is nothing in SEA and AA is next to nothing. Their positions are even weaker at PDX. There is virtually no possibility that AA will re-allocate long-haul capacity from LAX or any other hub and build at SEA like DL has. And, despite the belief you sometime see espoused here, AS is not really that strong at LAX, serving mostly some fun 'n sun destinations in Mexico. That alone severely circumscribes any amount of synergy. AA is, for AS, a poor man's DL.

doglover

I've been looking at options to score MQDs flying AS metal on an 006 ticket. In every case the 006 ticket is $60-$80 more.

Very interesting that DL is not trying to compete with AS on price.

LarkSFO

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/alask...y-tpa-dtw.html

jrkmsp

It's interesting that AS will be operating out of the North Terminal at DTW. Certainly a sign that things aren't hunky dory with Big D.

MSPeconomist

That would be horrible for connections at DTW between DL and AS. IIRC the other arilines MCT is something like three and a half hours at DTW. AFAIK there's no lounge for AS in the other terminal either. However, connections with AA, few as they are, should be pretty easy.

hazelrah

I wouldn't read too much into this. McNamara is for Delta/AF exclusively-part of the inherited legacy.

MSPeconomist

.....and KLM?

I would think that any partner long haul international flights would use McNamara, for example if VS/CZ/MU/AZ wanted to fly to DTW. Maybe not so for KE?

hazelrah

Check it out - KLM doesn't make the cut.

http://www.metroairport.com/Airlines.aspx