Delta Cancels DTW-HKG effective August 30th
Jun 26, 2012, 4:14 pm
#106
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: WAS
Posts: 3,014
My personal preference is to use an airline that not only gets me to the US but also has the domestic network to get me around within the US.
I have had several bad experiences with "alliance" carriers not cooperating with one another on various matters that end up screwing me over somehow. That is why I hesitate to fly CX then AA within the US. Further reasons include (1) AA's uncertain future, (2) CX is more expensive (3) I believe it's harder to upgrade from Y to J on CX using miles and I don't think they have the equivalent of an SWU (I could be wrong in this one, please feel free to educate me if I am).
Although I wouldn't have to fly on *A carriers if I chose UA, (1) UA is typically more expensive on the routes I fly, (2) it's hard/impossible to guarantee SWU usage in advance (3) I like DL's overall product a lot better than UA's and (4) UA/CO is a mess since the merger.
There are a few other reasons probably not worth going into. I make no claim as to which airline is better and I understand that CX/SQ are far superior to any USA-based carrier. But for my situation, DL works so that's who I fly.
I have had several bad experiences with "alliance" carriers not cooperating with one another on various matters that end up screwing me over somehow. That is why I hesitate to fly CX then AA within the US. Further reasons include (1) AA's uncertain future, (2) CX is more expensive (3) I believe it's harder to upgrade from Y to J on CX using miles and I don't think they have the equivalent of an SWU (I could be wrong in this one, please feel free to educate me if I am).
Although I wouldn't have to fly on *A carriers if I chose UA, (1) UA is typically more expensive on the routes I fly, (2) it's hard/impossible to guarantee SWU usage in advance (3) I like DL's overall product a lot better than UA's and (4) UA/CO is a mess since the merger.
There are a few other reasons probably not worth going into. I make no claim as to which airline is better and I understand that CX/SQ are far superior to any USA-based carrier. But for my situation, DL works so that's who I fly.
Jun 26, 2012, 4:35 pm
#107
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Baltimore, MD
Programs: Hilton, United, Delta, Hyatt, YMCA
Posts: 242
Re routing in First
my Buddy have 2 bookings (EC) on this route, he is Diamond and Delta offered to rebook and re-route him in first class as a GW gesture...He is not complaining...
Jun 26, 2012, 4:39 pm
#108
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: KUL/TPA/OTP
Programs: UA1k, DL
Posts: 3,138
Jun 26, 2012, 8:38 pm
#109
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Hong Kong, Philippines, Alabama
Programs: Delta Skymiles KM (Charter Member)
Posts: 150
There's a dirty little secret that most people here are in denial about. The Chinese economy is worse off than the official government statistics indicate because the government statistics are basically made up. The slowdown eventually caught up with China, and the government has admitted this, but has not admitted to what extent. A major coal mine owned by a company I used to advise recently suspended production because there is a huge oversupply of coal right now due to reduced electricity demand. Before the global slowdown the Chinese were burning coal faster than they could dig it up. "Officially" electricity generation in China has risen modestly or remained flat year-on-year; in reality, it has decreased in all provinces. O&D from China has understandably suffered.
Jun 27, 2012, 3:48 am
#110
Suspended
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: HKG
Programs: DL FO, UA, AA, AsiaMiles, SPG, HHonors
Posts: 7,982
I understand the advantages of CX/OW and *A (but not UA, IME) but for me the balance still tips in favor of DL. I also may not know enough about CX and might be missing some big advantage to them.
Jun 27, 2012, 6:46 am
#111
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Anywhere I need to be.
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Is it also cheaper ex-Asia? You can UG from CX K class? How--miles or certificates? How does one earn the certificates, if any? Is it possible to guarantee this in advance? Is the UG available more or less frequently than DL Z? Does it earn 150% MQM?
Maybe I should research CX more, though I really don't like interlining.
Maybe I should research CX more, though I really don't like interlining.
Yes, you can confirm in advance, but CX isn't good with opening space.
K=100%
The sample flights I did originated YVR.
I might admit though I've only flown DL domestic and not international.
What's wrong with interline?
It's necessary within Canada, anyways.
I.e. HKG-YYC.
Jun 27, 2012, 7:17 am
#112
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: West LA
Programs: DL DM
Posts: 957
Actually, since the great circle path for DTW-HKG is just slightly westward of due north (heading of 342 degrees, just 18 degrees away from straight up), DTW is a logical on-line connection point for just about everything from MSP to STL to DFW to HOU and everything east of any of those cities. And that encompasses the vast majority of the US population.
DTW is one of the largest northern metro areas in the US, and the farther north you go, the closer you get to HKG. What wouldn't make much sense would be a nonstop from ATL or CLT or MIA or DFW or HOU or PHX or other southern cities. Those hubs would require signficant southerly backtracking for much of the US population.
California has six nonstops to HKG between UA and CX. CX has two more from YVR. The western part of the US appears to be pretty well covered.
DL has focused its Asian nonstops primarily from DTW, and for good reason. It's a good hub location with pretty good O&D and lots of DL connections. The HKG flight just didn't work, but I disagree that failure is due to the location of DTW.
DTW is one of the largest northern metro areas in the US, and the farther north you go, the closer you get to HKG. What wouldn't make much sense would be a nonstop from ATL or CLT or MIA or DFW or HOU or PHX or other southern cities. Those hubs would require signficant southerly backtracking for much of the US population.
California has six nonstops to HKG between UA and CX. CX has two more from YVR. The western part of the US appears to be pretty well covered.
DL has focused its Asian nonstops primarily from DTW, and for good reason. It's a good hub location with pretty good O&D and lots of DL connections. The HKG flight just didn't work, but I disagree that failure is due to the location of DTW.
SEA: 12:52 10477 KM
SLC: 14:11 11586 KM
LAX: 14:19 11701 KM
DTW:15:28 12664 KM
JFK: 15:53 13012 KM
ATL: 16:31 13539 KM(only 50 KM shorter than JNB)
Jun 27, 2012, 8:20 am
#113
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: HKG
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Posts: 12,311
Not exactly. Flight times and KM to HKG according to http://flighttime-calculator.com/
SEA: 12:52 10477 KM
SLC: 14:11 11586 KM
LAX: 14:19 11701 KM
DTW:15:28 12664 KM
JFK: 15:53 13012 KM
ATL: 16:31 13539 KM(only 50 KM shorter than JNB)
SEA: 12:52 10477 KM
SLC: 14:11 11586 KM
LAX: 14:19 11701 KM
DTW:15:28 12664 KM
JFK: 15:53 13012 KM
ATL: 16:31 13539 KM(only 50 KM shorter than JNB)
Current flights from ORD, DTW, YYZ, EWR and JFK to HKG generally takes one of the 4 Polar routes that take them north near the North Pole and then down through Russia, Mongolia (for Polar 1, 2, and 3), and China into HKG. Polar 2 and 3 routes passes very close to North Pole, while Polar 1 and 4 on either side, still fairly close. So, for purpose of this discussion, one can generally just assume the flight path goes over the North Pole.
The routing from those above airports to the North Pole depends on wind that day, but is basically straight north or slightly NNE heading out. Therefore, flight time from any of those 5 airports listed to HKG are not that different. In fact, cruise speed of the aircraft can make a bigger difference, with CX's 346 taking a longer time from JFK before they switched to the 77W, and UA's 744 have an advantage.
Let's look at numbers for the past week or so. 777 flights - UA117 from EWR, DL187 from DTW and CX807 from ORD - all averages just over 15:00, despite the E-W distance between those airports. [UA895 from ORD on a 744 averages around 14:50.]
So, for those airports from the Midwest eastwards, it is indeed true that the further north, the shorter the flight time to HKG. New York, Detroit and Chicago are pretty close to latitude, while ATL (or DFW or IAH) - HKG will take significantly longer.
Of course, there are exceptions. Like ORD->HKG flights sometimes fly through Alaska, which may add to flight time. And also all the above only applies to US->HKG flights. The reverse rides the jetstream well south of the North Pole, and HKG->ORD is significantly shorter than HKG->EWR/JFK in flight time.
Jun 28, 2012, 10:45 am
#114
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: ATL
Programs: Delta DM, 3M; AA, FB, UA some lower status
Posts: 394
Perhaps it does not work for the reasons that UA, CO, NW and AA advanced in their filings with the DoT (opposing DL's applications to fly to PVG and PEK from ATL): the average number of daily O&D passengers between ATL and China could fit on a small regional plane. Ultra-longhaul flights work best when there's a strong local market at the gateway, and you're apparently one of the few from Atlanta heading to China regularly. Daily China O&D is stronger in Detroit, so it makes sense to originate more Asian flights there than in Atlanta.
Same reason AA flies to China (PVG and PEK) from CHI and not DFW. ORD has lots more O&D traffic to China, even though AA shares the market with UA (it's a huge O&D market compared to either ATL or DFW).
Same reason AA flies to China (PVG and PEK) from CHI and not DFW. ORD has lots more O&D traffic to China, even though AA shares the market with UA (it's a huge O&D market compared to either ATL or DFW).
BTW, what does "O&D" mean?
Jun 28, 2012, 11:14 am
#115
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Origin and destination. Used in this context it means the number of passengers actually starting in Atlanta (not originating elsewhere and connecting in Atlanta), and going to PVG (not continuing on from PVG). On a hub-to-hub flight like this (Delta's hub in ATL, partner China Eastern's hub in PVG), O&D traffic can be a fraction of well under 1/2 of all traffic xxx-atl-pvg-yyy.
Jun 28, 2012, 11:42 am
#116
Join Date: Sep 2009
Programs: UA GS>1K>Nothing; DL DM 2MM; AS 75K>Nothing>MVP
Posts: 9,341
IMHO, DL has a problem competing internationally which this cancellation illustrates.
1) If you have unlimited budget you are probably going to fly CX F or maybe UA F.
2) If you're company pays for J and you do the trip regularly, you're probably going with UA because their seats are all refurbed plus you can UG to F. Plus the miles you earn are worth something.
3) Kettles and occasional international flyers don't make the route profitable
4) So that kind of leaves DL with just corporate contracts, DTW hub captives, and employees of companies with moronic travel policies that pay for full fare Y or M but not for J.
5) And DL has kind of used up most of the many years of shoe leather selling that NW did in Asia with the travel companies.
1) If you have unlimited budget you are probably going to fly CX F or maybe UA F.
2) If you're company pays for J and you do the trip regularly, you're probably going with UA because their seats are all refurbed plus you can UG to F. Plus the miles you earn are worth something.
3) Kettles and occasional international flyers don't make the route profitable
4) So that kind of leaves DL with just corporate contracts, DTW hub captives, and employees of companies with moronic travel policies that pay for full fare Y or M but not for J.
5) And DL has kind of used up most of the many years of shoe leather selling that NW did in Asia with the travel companies.
Jun 28, 2012, 2:56 pm
#117
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Join Date: May 2001
Location: LAX; AA EXP, MM; HH Gold
Posts: 31,789
There was a thread on airliners.net a year or two ago (unfortunately I can't find it now) that said Atlanta-Shanghai O&D was 55 PDEW. So while it is still a rather small market, it's a far cry from the 23 PDEW to all of China back in 2007, as stated earlier in this thread. I suspect that in a few years a 3-4 weekly 787 might be viable, should someone choose to fly it.
Thanks. For many years, NW used most of its China frequencies from NRT and carried a lot of local traffic between Japan and China (plus some connecting traffic to/from the USA). UA, on the other hand, used its China frequencies to develop nonstop routes from Chicago and San Francisco that have remained viable to this day. When DL combined with NW, some new nonstops from USA to China were attempted, but it appears that DL is still struggling with its nonstop routes to China (and HKG).
Cheapskates like me don't mind connections at NRT or HKG, but big-spending Type As spending OPM (Other Peoples Money) generally like nonstops, so it behooves airlines to offer nonstops from markets with sufficient O&D to try to capture the generally higher nonstop fares, Thus, long-haul nonstops will generally be scheduled from cities with a bunch of O&D passengers, with the rest of the seats filled up by lower-fare connections. Cities like MEM or PIT, while great connecting hub airports, lack enough O&D to ever hope to get long-haul international nonstops, as too many of the seats would have to be filled with lower-fare connections.
Jun 28, 2012, 7:02 pm
#118
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: ECP
Programs: DL Diamond
Posts: 1,658
Any way DL could do a 1-stop from NYC (possibly SEA) a la CX? I would think you'd get the benefit of some transcon traffic to fill the plane as well as two domestic feeder cities en route to HKG, and possibly the ability to use a 332 if needed?
**Disclaimer: I know nothing about these sorts of things. Just passing by...
**Disclaimer: I know nothing about these sorts of things. Just passing by...
Jun 28, 2012, 7:15 pm
#119
Join Date: Dec 2008
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Posts: 5,110
As a probably unrelated note, RA describes SEA in the current Sky Magazine as a "key Asian gateway" (or some words to that effect). So reading too much into that, if HKG moves to a new west coast gateway, I'd expect SEA.
I just don't see JFK-HKG happening unless there's a lot of cargo to be hauled.
I just don't see JFK-HKG happening unless there's a lot of cargo to be hauled.
Jun 28, 2012, 10:04 pm
#120
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: DFW...at the moment
Programs: AA EXP, SPG Plat, Hyatt Diamond, HH gold
Posts: 609
There's a dirty little secret that most people here are in denial about. The Chinese economy is worse off than the official government statistics indicate because the government statistics are basically made up. The slowdown eventually caught up with China, and the government has admitted this, but has not admitted to what extent. A major coal mine owned by a company I used to advise recently suspended production because there is a huge oversupply of coal right now due to reduced electricity demand. Before the global slowdown the Chinese were burning coal faster than they could dig it up. "Officially" electricity generation in China has risen modestly or remained flat year-on-year; in reality, it has decreased in all provinces. O&D from China has understandably suffered.