invisible

This is very generic question which depends on:
- vaccine availability at your (source) location
​​​​​​- flight availability at the destination
​​​​- access rules at the destination
​​​​​​- access rules at the source when you are coming back.
- (...and many other things)

So, most likely - no.

Keep your expectations low and you might be pleasantly surprised.

I personally don’t expect things to go back to ‘normal’ until 70% of world population is vaccinated. You can get an idea how much time it will take.

Global Adventurer

Since the United States has only eradicated polio for just 30 years, and the vaccine started being distributed in the 1950s should give a little insight into how long it takes, even with newer technology.

And polio still exists in many countries, but mostly everyone worldwide has had the vaccine at one time or another. So, should still be immune.

I don't see any worldwide immunity up to 70% for many years to come. Most local Governments can't even contact trace and test. And it's almost a year later.

GUWonder

Various governments around the world are looking at vaccine passports and talking about having them in play to stimulate business long before (if ever) we get to 70+% levels of the global public being vaccinated for this. I am pretty certain that there will be US-residing US citizens able to visit 4-5 continents will be readily possible in July 2021 with some kind of proof of vaccination or other indicated immunity for Covid-19 before July 2021 ends. It won't do much good for a chunk of this northern hemisphere winter but it should do some good for traveling around the world for the southern hemisphere winter in the middle of 2021.

Boraxo

That is the $64000 question.

I would wager that countries will being to lift restrictions on inbound travel for people who can show proof of vaccination (perhaps similar to the yellow health card that I carry to prove my yellow fever vaccination for travel to Africa). But it isn't clear when that will happen.

I have international trips booked for June to a country that will not currently admit US residents. I am hopeful that will change but of course nobody can predict the timetable. Further it is not clear when ordinary joes (like my family) will have access to the vaccine as the first shots will be distributed to first responders and nursing homes (as they should be). However I am hoping that since a majority of people said they don't want to be dosed that we can get a good spot in line LOL

Global Adventurer

Mexico has a shipment of Pfizer vaccines arriving soon and will immediately start vaccinating their health care workers, with two doses 21 days apart. The additional shipments will go to the elderly and general population. Their military personnel is being tasked at handling the distribution and logistics. Maybe Mexico might end up the place to be by the spring 😁

Expat_flyer1

I missed this article from earlier in November which lists the countries aiming to bring new case incidence to 0 per day (paywall):
https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-coro...ny-11604399645

According to the WSJ, the following countries are going for elimination:
China/Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Thailand, Vietnam

They dont count singapore or HK I don't think, which is fair

invisible

In this case, don’t expect to visit any of these any time soon. Australia already explicitly said that borders won’t open until late 2021.

stimpy

Although they may be restricted to general international tourism, hotels are open in all these places and you can see high prices for the holiday season in some cities.

invisible

Wander, in total absence of foreign tourists, how many local Thai/Vietnamese tourists are in their Marriott/Hilton...

stimpy

I expect not so many in those countries. Perhaps much more in places like Sydney and Wellington.

Expat_flyer1

Thailand let in 39 Chinese tourists as the first foreign tourists in 9 months. They all have to stay minimum 30 days I think. So <some> foreigners are paying for hotels I guess 😂

Sjoerd

Yup I expect a lot of domestic tourism in OZ/NZ and other richer countries. We spent two nights in hotels in the Southern Netherlands last week, and in both properties the staff told us they just had the busiest November ever and December has very high bookings.

bensyd

Trying to book anything in Australia has been expensive and limited all year. Not sure how it has been in NZ. NZ tourism industry is heavily dependent on international tourists.

Adelphos

I think people are too pessimistic on summer international travel

1) Governments will be highly motivated to open things up ahead of a peak leisure season (can’t lose two in a row)
2) Vaccines will have start to have been distributed to vulnerable populations in many countries
3) Rate of spread declines in the late spring and summer - low Covid numbers will convince more countries to open up
4) A bad winter of spread means more people enter spring/summer with antibodies, which reduces spread
4) Things like rapid testing, proof of vaccine, proof of antibodies will be more common

I expect international travel to open up meaningfully in late spring / early summer

Global Adventurer

Here's Mexico's schedule for vaccinations starting any day now:

"According to the vaccination plan, the immunization of frontline healthcare workers using the Pfizer vaccine will begin this month and conclude in February 2021."

"In stage 2 of the vaccination plan, which will run from February to April, the government intends to immunize non-frontline health workers and people aged over 60, starting with those 80 or older. Immunization of people aged 50-59 will occur in stage 3 in April and May while those between 40 and 49 are to be vaccinated against Covid-19 in stage 4 next May and June.

In stage 5, the rest of the population will be immunized between June 2021 and March 2022."

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/cor...cination-plan/

Edit: By the way, the military is in charge of distribution and control. No comments necessary 😄