I know some people are saying it will be harder as a gold in 2012 to get upgrades.


I know with the new program there are more "levels" above gold to get upgraded first, but arent all the people in the 3 levels presently still before a gold anyway right now to get an upgrade?

Just trying to get a gauge on how much more difficult it will be and why.

Thanks!

Shouldn't be any harder (I think). A few CO Plats will be moving up to a 100k-based level, but the percentage of people ahead of you and behind you probably won't change much.

Thanks! Thats what I was hoping for. I read in one of the threads it was gonna be a lot harder but wasnt sure why if the same people ahead of me for upgrades will be the same people in 2012.

It was just more hyperbole/rants from folks. Silly things like "Gold is the next to last level now" or "there are now three levels above us, instead of one".

It ignores the fact that everyone above Gold is/was/and will be above Gold.

There will be more Golds though (via the merger), not sure how that will pan out though upgrade-wise.

It will almost surely be more difficult for Golds in 2012. Here's why:

(1) Under the new scheme being introduced next year, (a) full-fare elites and (b) pax upgrading with CR-1s or SWUs are ranked ahead all others, regardless of status. That means, for example, full-fare Silvers and/or Silvers using gifted upgrade instruments will come before Golds waiting for EUA/UDU. To be sure this change affects more than just Golds, but Golds will be affected.

(2) While in theory the merger should have zero net effect on passenger loads, in practice certain routes will see an increase in elite passenger traffic while others see a decrease. For example, we're already seeing an increase in elite trafic on PMUA's p.s. transcon routes. These flights were in demand before the influx of CO elites. With the promised reconfigurations of the p.s. flight -- resulting in a 32% decrease in premium capacity -- you can bet it will become harder to upgrade. My guess is that sub-Plats will rarely if ever see the front of those planes. The same is undoubtedly true for other routes as well. Point being that even if there were no net decrease in Golds clearing upgrades systemwide, on specific routes -- likely the most in-demand routes -- there will be.

To be sure, complementary upgrades are likely to be more difficult for everyone, with the uptick in business travel, continued decline in capacity (in particular as E+ gets rolled out into the PMCO fleet), and more aggressive marketing of UFC on the PMUA side. YMMV, of course, depending on the routes/dates/times you fly, but I think it's unrealistic to think things are going to stay the same.

CO Golds will see no change in upgrade rates*.

CO Plats will see a drop in upgrade rates but the exact amount is not quantifiable with the data I have**.

UA Premier Execs will see a large drop in upgrade rates if they fly less than 75k miles per year, and a healthy increase in upgrade rates if they fly more than 75k per year***.

*Assuming the population distribution by miles flown does not change. (I.e. if X% of people flew >50K miles in 2011 and the same percentage flew >50K in 2012.)

**Consider a plane with 1 open F seat, and one CO Plat and one 1K on board. In 2011 the plat had a 50% chance of an upgrade, in 2012 the plat has a 0% chance of upgrade.

***Before all 50-100K fliers were lumped in together, now 75K fliers will come first for upgrades. The data I have for United fliers shows predicts that the pool of 75K-100K fliers is considerably smaller than the pool of 50K-75K fliers and so being in the top half of the pool is more than twice as good as being in the bottom half of the pool, for the purposes of upgrades.

This is probably good for upgrades, because less seats in E means a higher F seat to E seat ratio.

The increase in elite-heavy routes (due to more hubs) certainly does not help.

CLE-LAX is incredibly elite-heavy and did not used to be.

Other routes like SFO-IAH are no better.

My advice is to become a 1K if you want upgrades.

Your analysis is all well and good...except for the two inconvenient facts you ignore: (a) full-fare elites and sub-Plats using gifted instruments will jump to the head of the line; and (b) ongoing, systemwide capacity reductions plus the uptick in business travel will exert downward pressure on everyone vis-a-vis ugprading. The lower you are on the pyramid, the fewer upgrades you will get. I simply can't imagine how (a) and (b) will have no effect on Golds' clearance rates.

Full fare elite upgrades have been normal on CO for as long as I can remember (YBM fares) so no change here.

Gifted certs were possible this year and I didn't really notice much change.

Using UA's 2004 numbers (the best available) as the basis of a projection there will only be about 0.3 SWUs per elite member* and 0.4 RPUs per elite member** so the total number of upgrades you could lose to Non-Elites using SWUs/RPUs is somewhat limited unless you get very unlucky.

(I would have thought though that most RPUs will be used on the hardest-to-upgrade flights however, so they would mostly displace Plats and 1Ks rather than Golds. I have no data to back up that assertion however.)

Well, yes, a falling tide sinks all boats - but CO Golds would see exactly the same reduction from this type of systematic cause under the Silver/Gold/Plat/1K system as they would have done under the Silver/Gold/Plat system because none of their upgrade scenarios change.

*46K 1Ks x 6 SWUs vs 820K total elites.
**46K 1Ks x 4 RPUs + 71K 0Ps x 2 RPUs vs 820K total elites.

Not normal for PMUA flyers. This is a huge change.

That's because as things are now, certs don't matter at the gate -- elite level, then fare paid, then time added to waitlist. Under the new scheme, my GM wife using my CR-1 will beat everyone attempting to EUA/UDU.

Putting aside for the moment that the universe of SWUs is going to expand next year, as a subset of PMCO Plats become 1Ks and receive 6 SWUs, my argument is not that certs in themselves is going to lower Golds' clearance rate. I'm saying that when you take into account a number of key trends, taken together, they spell lower clearance rates for Golds: (1) Higher fares trumping elite status; (2) certs above EUA/UDU; (3) reduction in premium capacity; (4) increased business travel. Sorry my friend, you can crunch your model all you want, it's going to be worse for Golds next year.

Okay, so now you move the goalposts. OP asked whether it will be "harder as a gold in 2012 to get upgrades" and "why," not whether the proposed changes to the M+ upgrade hierarchy will independently and in themselves make it harder. It will be harder. How much harder? I haven't the foggiest idea. We're talking about a dyanmic system, not the static one suggested by your mathematical model.