It will almost surely be more difficult for Golds in 2012. Here's why:

(1) Under the new scheme being introduced next year, (a) full-fare elites and (b) pax upgrading with CR-1s or SWUs are ranked ahead all others, regardless of status. That means, for example, full-fare Silvers and/or Silvers using gifted upgrade instruments will come before Golds waiting for EUA/UDU. To be sure this change affects more than just Golds, but Golds will be affected.

(2) While in theory the merger should have zero net effect on passenger loads, in practice certain routes will see an increase in elite passenger traffic while others see a decrease. For example, we're already seeing an increase in elite trafic on PMUA's p.s. transcon routes. These flights were in demand before the influx of CO elites. With the promised reconfigurations of the p.s. flight -- resulting in a 32% decrease in premium capacity -- you can bet it will become harder to upgrade. My guess is that sub-Plats will rarely if ever see the front of those planes. The same is undoubtedly true for other routes as well. Point being that even if there were no net decrease in Golds clearing upgrades systemwide, on specific routes -- likely the most in-demand routes -- there will be.

To be sure, complementary upgrades are likely to be more difficult for everyone, with the uptick in business travel, continued decline in capacity (in particular as E+ gets rolled out into the PMCO fleet), and more aggressive marketing of UFC on the PMUA side. YMMV, of course, depending on the routes/dates/times you fly, but I think it's unrealistic to think things are going to stay the same.