Originally Posted by
IAH-OIL-TRASH
Shouldn't be any harder (I think).
CO Golds will see no change in upgrade rates*.
CO Plats will see a drop in upgrade rates but the exact amount is not quantifiable with the data I have**.
UA Premier Execs will see a large drop in upgrade rates if they fly less than 75k miles per year, and a healthy increase in upgrade rates if they fly more than 75k per year***.
*Assuming the population distribution by miles flown does not change. (I.e. if X% of people flew >50K miles in 2011 and the same percentage flew >50K in 2012.)
**Consider a plane with 1 open F seat, and one CO Plat and one 1K on board. In 2011 the plat had a 50% chance of an upgrade, in 2012 the plat has a 0% chance of upgrade.
***Before all 50-100K fliers were lumped in together, now 75K fliers will come first for upgrades. The data I have for United fliers shows predicts that the pool of 75K-100K fliers is considerably smaller than the pool of 50K-75K fliers and so being in the top half of the pool is more than twice as good as being in the bottom half of the pool, for the purposes of upgrades.
continued decline in capacity (in particular as E+ gets rolled out into the PMCO fleet)
This is probably good for upgrades, because less seats in E means a higher F seat to E seat ratio.