Originally Posted by
as219
(a) full-fare elites and sub-Plats using gifted instruments will jump to the head of the line;
Full fare elite upgrades have been normal on CO for as long as I can remember (YBM fares) so no change here.
Gifted certs were possible this year and I didn't really notice much change.
Using UA's 2004 numbers (the best available) as the basis of a projection there will only be about 0.3 SWUs per elite member* and 0.4 RPUs per elite member** so the total number of upgrades you could lose to Non-Elites using SWUs/RPUs is somewhat limited unless you get very unlucky.
(I would have thought though that most RPUs will be used on the hardest-to-upgrade flights however, so they would mostly displace Plats and 1Ks rather than Golds. I have no data to back up that assertion however.)
(b) ongoing, systemwide capacity reductions plus the uptick in business travel will exert downward pressure on everyone vis-a-vis ugprading.
Well, yes, a falling tide sinks all boats - but CO Golds would see exactly the
same reduction from this type of systematic cause under the Silver/Gold/Plat/1K system as they would have done under the Silver/Gold/Plat system because none of their upgrade scenarios change.
*46K 1Ks x 6 SWUs vs 820K total elites.
**46K 1Ks x 4 RPUs + 71K 0Ps x 2 RPUs vs 820K total elites.