Originally Posted by
rruaco
CO Golds will see no change in upgrade rates*.
CO Plats will see a drop in upgrade rates but the exact amount is not quantifiable with the data I have**.
UA Premier Execs will see a large drop in upgrade rates if they fly less than 75k miles per year, and a healthy increase in upgrade rates if they fly more than 75k per year***.
*Assuming the population distribution by miles flown does not change. (I.e. if X% of people flew >50K miles in 2011 and the same percentage flew >50K in 2012.)
**Consider a plane with 1 open F seat, and one CO Plat and one 1K on board. In 2011 the plat had a 50% chance of an upgrade, in 2012 the plat has a 0% chance of upgrade.
***Before all 50-100K fliers were lumped in together, now 75K fliers will come first for upgrades. The data I have for United fliers shows predicts that the pool of 75K-100K fliers is considerably smaller than the pool of 50K-75K fliers and so being in the top half of the pool is more than twice as good as being in the bottom half of the pool, for the purposes of upgrades.
This is probably good for upgrades, because less seats in E means a higher F seat to E seat ratio.
Your analysis is all well and good...except for the two inconvenient facts you ignore: (a) full-fare elites and sub-Plats using gifted instruments will jump to the head of the line; and (b) ongoing, systemwide capacity reductions plus the uptick in business travel will exert downward pressure on everyone vis-a-vis ugprading. The lower you are on the pyramid, the fewer upgrades you will get. I simply can't imagine how (a) and (b) will have no effect on Golds' clearance rates.