Originally Posted by
rruaco
Full fare elite upgrades have been normal on CO for as long as I can remember (YBM fares) so no change here.
Not normal for PMUA flyers. This is a huge change.
Gifted certs were possible this year and I didn't really notice much change.
That's because as things are now, certs don't matter at the gate -- elite level, then fare paid, then time added to waitlist. Under the new scheme, my GM wife using my CR-1 will beat everyone attempting to EUA/UDU.
Using UA's 2004 numbers (the best available) as the basis of a projection there will only be about 0.3 SWUs per elite member* and 0.4 RPUs per elite member** so the total number of upgrades you could lose to Non-Elites using SWUs/RPUs is somewhat limited unless you get very unlucky.
(I would have thought though that most RPUs will be used on the hardest-to-upgrade flights however, so they would mostly displace Plats and 1Ks rather than Golds. I have no data to back up that assertion however.)
Putting aside for the moment that the universe of SWUs is going to expand next year, as a subset of PMCO Plats become 1Ks and receive 6 SWUs, my argument is not that certs in themselves is going to lower Golds' clearance rate. I'm saying that when you take into account a number of key trends, taken together, they spell lower clearance rates for Golds: (1) Higher fares trumping elite status; (2) certs above EUA/UDU; (3) reduction in premium capacity; (4) increased business travel. Sorry my friend, you can crunch your model all you want, it's going to be worse for Golds next year.
Well, yes, a falling tide sinks all boats - but CO Golds would see exactly the same reduction from this type of systematic cause under the Silver/Gold/Plat/1K system as they would have done under the Silver/Gold/Plat system because none of their upgrade scenarios change.
Okay, so now you move the goalposts. OP asked whether it will be "harder as a gold in 2012 to get upgrades" and "why," not whether the proposed changes to the M+ upgrade hierarchy will independently and in themselves make it harder. It will be harder. How much harder? I haven't the foggiest idea. We're talking about a dyanmic system, not the static one suggested by your mathematical model.