LCY8737

Heard that assessment before: I recall seeing a Lufthansa assessment a few years back that rubbished the business case for very long bucket and spade routes. The fuel cost makes those routes very expensive to operate (probably less of an issue with current oil prices, but still...), while the passenger demographic dampens revenue (few full fare business travellers, most pax very price conscious, many redemptions).

Globaliser

Saturday 26 March 2022 is simply the last day of the northern winter 2021/22 scheduling season. Sunday 27 March 2022 is the first day of northern summer 2022. That was the point of my earlier reference to the scheduling seasons.

All that has happened is that BA has left the NW 2021/22 schedule as it currently is, up to and including its last day, and has not filed anything for NS 2022. I would be surprised if there has yet been any thinking along the lines of "How are we going to recover a crewless aircraft from BKK?" let alone any planning for the interface between the two seasons. These do not look like thought-through schedules; that's why they are about as likely to be placeholders.

So really, there is no point in over-thinking this. As LondonElite says, even BA doesn't know what's going to happen in 2022. There's absolutely no point in us speculating about it, let alone trying to second guess whether any particular flight will or won't operate. Although for completeness, you've overlooked the simplest possibility: when the schedules are finalised (probably about mid-Jan 2022), LHR-BKK on Saturday 26 March 2022 will be cancelled.

pogonation

Agree with that analysis but is irrelevant in the short-term given the current climate. Fewer places allowing British tourists in, pax more likely to pay for the extra space for social distancing etc. They may be able to command higher fares.

Sam Bee

I think what may tip this in favour of working is that most of the indirect options to Phuket are currently on the Red List (and BKK is not an allowable transit for HKT), and although we know that DOH & DXB will probably be removed from red list, by flying direct you take away one massive element of risk (you've waited 2 years to get back to Asia, and you're scuppered at the last minute as Abu Dhabi transits are banned due to new variant etc...), so direct can command higher premiums in the short / medium term. I don't think anyone thinks it will be a long term BA route.

DelTroon

With TG getting rid of their A380's there is now no longer a direct F option between LHR and BKK. I would like to hope (!) this may persuade BA to bring back F to the route; if they only had to fill 8 F seats I would like to hope this would be profitable but others may know better!

lost_in_translation

This analysis is not 'irrelevant' at all. Perhaps it may now be rendered temporarily slightly less applicable but my hunch is that things have not shifted anywhere near enough due to COVID to swing things in favour of a direct HKT flight. There was some discussion of this recently in this thread - COVID-19 BA Suspended Routes, Changes in The BA Network, Speculation & Discussion. The only chance here as I see it is for Qatar and UAE to remain on the red list once the winter peak travel season to Thailand comes around, blocking all transits via the Middle East. This seems pretty highly unlikely to me given both are far ahead of most of the rest of the world on vaccinations. Even then, I think HKT is just a bit too low budget to attract the very high margin leisure travelers BA would need to make this work, why would they go to HKT and not ,e.g., the Maldives? (Bear in mind that on a route like this where no-one is paying £8K for a Club World Flex ticket and there is probably limited cargo demand, the average leisure traveler fare needs to be much higher than people are used to on, e.g., LHR-JFK for the route to be economically viable.)

I wouldn't assume TG's F cabin was anywhere near profitable. Airlines like TG operate F these days largely for prestige reasons and, I understand, so certain high ranking officials can fly in F. I would rank it as very low probability BA will bring back F just because TG is scrapping it.

SK AAR

LHR-HKT direct may be viable for a while, but as soon as it becomes allowed/possible to travel to BKK (without quarantine) the basis for a HKT flight is gone.

sammyg901

I imagine Thailand will put some kind of "corridor" in place in BKK, perhaps with Bangkok Airways operating some "connections only" flights. IIRC they already have arrangements for you to clear immigration in Phuket if you are connecting in Bangkok (CIQ?)

It doesn't make much sense that you could transit in Dubai but not Bangkok (unless I am missing something)

Otherwise it would be rather convenient if BA could operate outbound via HKT please to drop us all off

pogonation

Fair enough, I am purely thinking in the short term (think next 6 months or until BKK becomes a transit option again). Why HKT and not Maldives?.. Because the two are in no way comparable. Desert island hostage vs island with things to do, places to go, more options for the kids etc. It is a low budget destination but as long as the higher budget destinations are more hassle/not allowed, it could become more attractive to the big spenders. Current cargo requirements from HKT are huge because a big portion of the world's nitrile gloves (currently a major export) are made in Phuket and the South of Thailand. As for whether HKT can command full-fare tickets, yes you are probably right but I still think they will be able to command higher fares than usual.

Sam Bee

That's interesting about the nitrile gloves, I had no idea!

But I'd be wary about saying Phuket is low end tourism, it has more 5* hotel rooms than the Maldives and Thailand has approx 9 x as many annual UK tourists than the Maldives.

​​​​​​So if Male can accommodate 3+ weekly flights during off season, can't see why Phuket can't during high season. And all the cheaper end tourists can hope Dubai & Qatar comes off the red list!

Whyone

Phuket is also a convenient arrival point for transfers to some very high end properties on adjacent islands.

GGLwannabe

I don't think anyone should be setting their hopes too high about Phuket opening to fully vaccinated travellers in July. I've been planning a trip there in the second week of July, but:

1) The local governor has said that Phuket will only open up if/when 70% of the population have been vaccinated
2) The Thai government's vaccination program is very slow, and it is not clear that Phuket will receive sufficient doses to enable 70% vaccination level by the end of June
3) There is a new surge of cases in various parts of Thailand, including Bangkok, Chiang Mai and Phuket. If these surges are not brought under control quickly it is likely that the July opening of Phuket will be postponed.
4) Today is the first day of the Thai new year Songkran festival, famous for it's boisterous 'water-splashing'. Although some organised Songkran events have been cancelled, and 'water-splashing' has been prohibited, the government has not sought to impose a blanket ban on festivities, and so it is likely that there will be a further spike of Covid-19 in infections in Thailand (as has followed the festivals of Holi and the Kumbh Mela in India).

I will probably go ahead and book flights and hotels nonetheless, but I will ensure that all of the bookings I make are fully refundable, and I will put in place a Plan B!

JeffBHD

Bangkok flights seem to have been loaded now. I have just rebooked reward seats for early April 2022.
Just need a better aircraft than the 3 class B777 assigned to this route now....

PlaneSpeaking

You beat me to it and me too. Thank heavens for seatspy!! (And lucky we didn’t go for the same day!).

GSTBD

This will be the refurbished 777s with new Club Suites. The route is too thin in premium cabins for A350s really, so I can see it sticking to the 777.