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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Jan 6, 2019, 6:09 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)

Elite status
  1. Concierge Key
  2. Executive Platinum
  3. Platinum Pro
  4. Platinum
  5. Gold

Upgrade type
  1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
  2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
  3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

Then, by
  1. Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months (rolling)
  2. Booking class
  3. Time of request

See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017



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ARCHIVE: Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2019 master thread)

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Old Feb 6, 2019, 4:29 am
  #196  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,483
Originally Posted by ermeg
EXP, looking to book a flight LAX>DFW>FCO... any experience in chances of a SWU clearing? Other options include JFK, ORD, CLT, and PHL-- however, I would prefer JFK/ORD as they have the updated Boeings. It's a mid-week (Wednesday) flight at 7am in late July, so I'm hoping I have pretty good odds!

Also wondering about a return from LHR>LAX on a Monday (Aug) in the am as well... I have feeling that one might be a bit harder to clear
Assuming both flights are relatively open in business now, I'd say your chances are good. As with pretty much every long haul AA route flying midweek definitely helps.
JJeffrey is online now  
Old Feb 6, 2019, 1:23 pm
  #197  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: LA
Programs: AA Plat Pro, SPG/Marriott Titanium, Hilton Gold
Posts: 4,192
I'm plat pro. Just had a miles/copay upgrade confirmed for AA170 on 2/15. Good to know there wasn't any waiting at the gate!
chenalex is offline  
Old Feb 6, 2019, 2:18 pm
  #198  
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Programs: AA Plat, MPC Silver, IHG Platinum
Posts: 116
Originally Posted by Zacnlinc
Wow!! Six times this year to HKG and it's just now the sixth week of 2019!! You Go!! And to think I am happy to be there every 4-6 weeks for the past 18 months is wonderful for me.
Six times "LAX to 'or' from HKG" this year....notice the or...maybe it should have been better said only three round trips via LAX and one R/T via DFW! In any event 0/6 via LAX and 2/2 via DFW. Last year it was opposite.
3 Trips in 6 weeks is pretty crazy too. ;-)

I did a trip to phillipines (via LAX-HKG) every 5-6 weeks last year. I am hoping I don't have to do that again!
Nile_US is offline  
Old Feb 6, 2019, 9:01 pm
  #199  
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,976
Originally Posted by ermeg
EXP, looking to book a flight LAX>DFW>FCO... any experience in chances of a SWU clearing? Other options include JFK, ORD, CLT, and PHL-- however, I would prefer JFK/ORD as they have the updated Boeings. It's a mid-week (Wednesday) flight at 7am in late July, so I'm hoping I have pretty good odds!

Also wondering about a return from LHR>LAX on a Monday (Aug) in the am as well... I have feeling that one might be a bit harder to clear
IME upgrades to FCO or MXP, especially in the summer, are very difficult. A wide open seat map now when the flight is in July means nothing. If I had to guess your LHR-LAX would be a better shot, but I would expect none of them to clear much in advance.
Stripe is offline  
Old Feb 7, 2019, 9:26 am
  #200  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Programs: AA MM, AA EXP; OW Emerald, EK silver
Posts: 928
Planning a trip to London and looking to upgrade with miles from economy or premium economy to biz with miles (I am Plat pro). Will a premium economy ticket increase my chances of an upgrade or is that irrelevant and based solely on status and EQD?
dwugson is offline  
Old Feb 9, 2019, 7:22 pm
  #201  
 
Join Date: May 2018
Location: PHX
Programs: HH Diamond - Marriott Titanium- AA EP
Posts: 64
Originally Posted by A651346
Hi FT community,

What are your thoughts on SWU clearing for this flight....

I have confirmed PE seat and have been waitlisted for C space since booking about 2 weeks ago. Any data points on chances of this clearing?

EXP w/ 25k rolling EQD

thx!

sorry attached didn’t upload for 2/7 flight.
Reporting back that both SWC cleared!

AA193 cleared T24
AA192 also cleared T24
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Old Feb 10, 2019, 6:02 am
  #202  
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Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,483
Originally Posted by dwugson
Planning a trip to London and looking to upgrade with miles from economy or premium economy to biz with miles (I am Plat pro). Will a premium economy ticket increase my chances of an upgrade or is that irrelevant and based solely on status and EQD?
Right now its based just on status/EQD, buying premium economy has no bearing on waitlist position over normal economy.
JJeffrey is online now  
Old Feb 10, 2019, 10:55 am
  #203  
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Programs: AA Platinum, Marriott Platinum, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 136
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
Right now its based just on status/EQD, buying premium economy has no bearing on waitlist position over normal economy.
Thats not quite true - from the wiki above:
  1. Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
    2. Executive Platinum
    3. Platinum Pro
    4. Platinum
    5. Gold
  2. Upgrade type
    1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
    2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets (including EXP complimentary UDU)
    3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards (including EXP complimentary UDU
  3. Elite qualifying dollars* in the past 12 months
  4. Booking class (in order, J, D, I, W, P, Y, H, K, M, L, V, G, S, N, Q, O, T)
  5. Time of request
Hollinger Clarke is offline  
Old Feb 10, 2019, 11:00 am
  #204  
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: DFW
Programs: OWE AA EXP;*A TK Gold; Marriott LTT; Hyatt Globalist; IHG Plat; National VIP
Posts: 3,097
Originally Posted by Hollinger Clarke
Thats not quite true - from the wiki above:
  1. Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
    2. Executive Platinum
    3. Platinum Pro
    4. Platinum
    5. Gold
  2. Upgrade type
    1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
    2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets (including EXP complimentary UDU)
    3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards (including EXP complimentary UDU
  3. Elite qualifying dollars* in the past 12 months
  4. Booking class (in order, J, D, I, W, P, Y, H, K, M, L, V, G, S, N, Q, O, T)
  5. Time of request
that is a tie breaker if two passengers are same status, use same instruments and have exactly the same EQD. Likelihood of this ever happening is very close to zero.
asnovici is offline  
Old Feb 10, 2019, 11:40 am
  #205  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Programs: AA MM, AA EXP; OW Emerald, EK silver
Posts: 928
Thanks for the information - at the moment my trip is scheduled the week after Brexit is supposed to occur and looks like biz is wide open so my chances might be good. Time will tell......
dwugson is offline  
Old Feb 11, 2019, 9:05 am
  #206  
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 238
Originally Posted by chitink
MCE seats have no better chance of clearing than regular economy. They go using the same upgrade priority as economy seats.

You cant' transfer the 500 mile stickers, you will need to buy another one before you are added to the waitlist. You won't be upgraded without it.

I doubt they would automatically refund you the MCE fee charge if you were upgraded, I have heard of those refunds being declined. But I haven't done it so I can't speak for myself.

Read the wiki at the top to learn how upgrade priority works. Basically Gold rarely ever clears, if you read through these posts, they are mostly EXP who do not even get upgraded. It never hurts to try but don't get too excited about it.
Thanks...I have read it, that why I am not at all hopefully and kept saying IF we get lucky! LOL and just for clarification, wasn't thinking that MCE would get us up any further on the upgrade list....the CSR suggested that we check and see if any of the MCE seats which currently cost us $ to reserve are available for free prior to us checking in on line at T-24.

Thanks for your answer about the needed upgrade...that's what I figured but was hoping!
chitink likes this.
Clay Clayton is offline  
Old Feb 13, 2019, 10:36 am
  #207  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 29
Looks like my chances of an upgrade are slim to none on the outbound. At least the return flight has ever so slightly better availability. I was hoping travel after the lunar new year would have eased things a bit.

2/14/19 (Thursday) LAX to HKG F5 A5 J2 R2 D2 I1 W0 P0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 G0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0
2/18/19 (Monday) HKG to LAX F3 A3 J7 R7 D7 I7 W7 P7 Y7 B0 H7 K7 M7 L7 G7 V7 S7 N7 Q7 O7 E7
LightTraveller is offline  
Old Feb 13, 2019, 11:36 am
  #208  
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Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,483
Originally Posted by LightTraveller
Looks like my chances of an upgrade are slim to none on the outbound. At least the return flight has ever so slightly better availability. I was hoping travel after the lunar new year would have eased things a bit.

2/14/19 (Thursday) LAX to HKG F5 A5 J2 R2 D2 I1 W0 P0 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 G0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0
2/18/19 (Monday) HKG to LAX F3 A3 J7 R7 D7 I7 W7 P7 Y7 B0 H7 K7 M7 L7 G7 V7 S7 N7 Q7 O7 E7
I wouldn't give up hope on the outbound, at Y0 coach is most likely oversold (especially around CNY) with AA reducing the number of J for sale relative to what's actually available (J2 but still with 10 empty seats, and F is wide open, so lots of room for upgrades and op-up's potentially).
JJeffrey is online now  
Old Feb 13, 2019, 12:21 pm
  #209  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 29
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
I wouldn't give up hope on the outbound, at Y0 coach is most likely oversold (especially around CNY) with AA reducing the number of J for sale relative to what's actually available (J2 but still with 10 empty seats, and F is wide open, so lots of room for upgrades and op-up's potentially).
Thanks for the insights. It's my first time trying an upgrade on AA as I mostly fly UA, so I appreciate it. The whole process starting from having to call in for upgrades has been a new experience, but at least FT has made the process more navigable.
LightTraveller is offline  
Old Feb 14, 2019, 8:26 am
  #210  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Long Island, NY
Programs: AA EXP, Hyatt Explorist, Marriott Gold
Posts: 732
Flying JFK-CDG on 2/15/2019, AA 44.
Requested upgrade using SWU (14k$ spent last year).
Right now, J1 but Y0. I still see 3 available seats in J on experflyer, hopefully coach is oversold and my upgrade will clear.
zip10001 is offline  



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