ashill

In addition, the timing: this takes effect the day the VX frequent flyer program goes away. That sounds more like a decision AS made than what that AA made.

However, you mentioned that AA needs this partnership more than AS. I'm not sure that's true. Without AS, AA has a hole in a relatively small (population-weighted) geographic area of the country (WA, OR, ID, and AK). Without AA, AS serves only major cities (ie ones big enough to merit nonstop flights to the west coast) outside of the west coast. Yes, codeshares mean that AS can still sell those tickets, but their elites lose waived check bag fees, preferred seats, and other elite perks on the last leg. So now, if you're Northwest-based and want service with elite perks to most places in the world, your best option is clearly DL. Until yesterday, AS at the very least had an argument for parity. If you're CA-based, there's an argument that all three of AA, DL, and UA are now better than AS.

Frankly, I thought AS joining oneworld was considerably more probable than this gutting of the partnership. Shows what I know.

I just had an experience with reservations that reminds how much I love working with Alaska, but the AA partnership is what currently makes them viable for me.

PV_Premier

perhaps. if so, it will be a lovely once a day redeye.

i'm sure you can still codeshare this one for $12M round trip ANC-CLT or $475 round trip on DL.

PV_Premier

I received an email about it from AS this morning. Granted, it was in my mileage plan e-statement.

tth6133

Here's another possible explanation for all this:

Ever since AA devaluation (on both earning and redemption) and because of the scarcity of AA saver awards, too many AA flyers, who don't fly very much on AS (other than AS-codeshares), are crediting their miles to AS and using them to fly on international flights in premium cabins. This has become a significant financial drain on AS (assuming AA isn't paying a premium for those AS miles).

brp

Since we go to PNW and Hawai'i fairly often, it may be time to status match on AS, maintain 75K MVP there and fall back to LT Plat (both of us) on AA. We've been flying more BA to Europe and we'd still get Business Lounge access at LHR. We've been buying primarily premium class anyway, so upgrades are not terribly relevant. Only possible loss from EXP is the EXP Desk.

Thoughts-in-progress...but am I missing anything here?

Cheers.

JDiver

I may be on that boat. And I can earn AS miles on some airlines that make sense to use but don't earn AA miles.

I'd think AS initiated this, as they were very prepared. Their website has the new charts for miles awards using AA, etc. whereas AA just made a hasty announcement.

Erik Jacobsen

I checked my junk mail and everything. Still *crickets* from Alaska.

PV_Premier

if your email preferences with AS don't dictate that you receive a monthly MP statement you wouldn't have seen it

also, i think the emails are batched to some extent so yours might be in a batch not yet processed for today. i've seen cases with AS where others on the AS forum have gotten notice of things more quickly than me even though our email preferences are the same.

Erik Jacobsen

Honestly, most of the PNW (Billings, Pullman, etc) is relatively low-value for AA, in my opinion. BUT the Seattle/Portland market, I would hazard to guess, is high value and will continue to increase in importance. The whole tech thing. Plus, it's significantly closer to Asia--go team Great Circles. With the new runway going in, SeaTac should be able to handle more traffic and higher frequency of turns on the existing gates. I think UA pulling it's crew base out of Seattle and AA not having a significant footprint really gives a competitive edge to DL. Perhaps a better way to put this is I think this is a net negative for AA but it's a wash *at the moment* for AS... and sets up AS to be a bigger player in the future. So, a long term net negative for AA and a long term net positive for AS.

But, again... I could be totally wrong.

100% agree here. I was convinced AA/As would get closer to the point I've been planning my travel for when I wouldn't need to worry about crediting to two mileage programs (i.e. if AS joined OneWorld then I could truly go all in on AA.)

Adelphos

Alaska's issue is that outside of the PNW, they are still a second (or third) airline at most of their major west coast "hubs". They have broad coverage of California, but not particularly deep. Most fliers still can't rely on Alaska to get them everywhere they want to go with their preferred schedules. They have to continue to grow organically in the West and also probably need to add some kind of hub or focus city in the Midwest or East.

sfozrhfco

Exactly. SFO is basically just getting the flights VX already had with a few extra flights to PDX and SEA. Nice to have new flights to ABQ/MSP/BNA, etc but one or two flights a day with no decent connections available if the non-stop doesn't work with your schedule is just not all that great.

GUWonder

Just another sign that AA's mileage program is expected to remain relative junk compared to AS's mileage program, at least in terms of earning and spending miles.

When the AA program is so bad now that AA is leaking customers to AS' program, something gets surrendered.

artemis

And of course improving the AA program to retain those departing customers is out of the question!

GUWonder

Given that the US3 industry cartel kingpins are in such a strong position against "competition", and given he increased industry concentration with an AS+VX combination in the picture too, AA isn't under pressure from other US airlines to improve the AA program.

BearX220

The VX deal does almost nothing for any customer living east of Petaluma who doesn't want to go to San Francisco. Even post-merger AS has a long way to go before it means much to people outside the SEA-PDX-SFO coastalplex.

AS is in line for a big dose of welcome-to-the-NFL-kid. They got where they are via provincial hometown support and cheers from outstations like OMA that are just excited to see a 737 again. In this next phase AS faces indifference (as its hard product is indeed dowdy and second-rate) or even hostility (from Bay Area VX fans mourning their hip alternative). And after the dust settles the merged airline will still be a west coast regional, albeit a big one.

It's a funny time for Alaska to bust up a relationship that increased its relevance in the 85% of the US it doesn't serve.