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Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - (2017 on)

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Old Nov 26, 2014, 4:51 am
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Speculation: New Routes, Hubs, Flights (2017 Onward)
Because there is community interest in having a purely speculative discussion about whether other airports will pop up to become focus cities or hubs, new routes, etc. the following new thread has been amalgamated on this topic.

Note:

Going: 9 A330-300, ER190, some older 757-200 and 8 767-300ER (leaving 17), MD-80

Coming: Remainder of 16 Boeing 26 787-8, 22 Boeing 787-9 (began later 2016). A320 family - 100 A321neo, and B737-800 (100 737-MAX8) aircraft.

See Cranky Flier article on 2016 fleet changes, AA-HP-US. Link.

Also see: HELP DESK: General questions about aircraft equipment, fleet, seats, IFE, etc.

Speculation fun time: Will xxx be the next AA focus city / hub? (consolidated)


Obsolete posts from 2015 on have been moved to ARCHIVE: Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - 2015 on

All posts prior to 2015 have been moved here: ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)
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Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - (2017 on)

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Old Feb 4, 2018, 9:52 am
  #811  
 
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Originally Posted by FlightNurse
Some of what you write makes sense while others do not. We get that you want to fly from CLT to Europe, and AA does not do this year round. Could AA support a year-round flight to Europe from CLT, possible but AA does not. Could PHX support non stop flights to Europe on AA? Possible, but AA won't try it. Just like CLT if passengers if I want to go to Europe we have to make a connection, either to LAX, ORD, DFW. or take the BA non-stop. Could the real reason be the lack of aircraft? Does AA have a spare 787 sitting around for the PHX-LHR,PHX-CDG?
I disagree none of what he/she writes makes sense except where he states Charlotte and the Southeast are growing. Many factors play into route launches for example local market dynamics/o&d, connections available, geography, competition, aircraft availability and costs are all very important. But If route planners looked at cost and connections only as MOC991 suggests Charlotte would serve every international market AA serves year round. But as noted it involves a lot more than that.
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Old Feb 4, 2018, 12:26 pm
  #812  
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Originally Posted by Cltfc
I disagree none of what he/she writes makes sense except where he states Charlotte and the Southeast are growing. Many factors play into route launches for example local market dynamics/o&d, connections available, geography, competition, aircraft availability and costs are all very important. But If route planners looked at cost and connections only as MOC991 suggests Charlotte would serve every international market AA serves year round. But as noted it involves a lot more than that.
I don't think it warranted to have flights to all of Europe from CLT, but I'm sure there is enough traffic to warrant one or two to LHR or LHR and FRA. But I think AA wants to keep certain hubs for international flights.
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Old Feb 4, 2018, 12:42 pm
  #813  
 
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CLT is optimized for domestic connections and PHL is optimized for Transatlantic connections.

PHL may have fewer flights and connections domestically than CLT, but it has flights from the important markets for TA timed to connect with the evening banks to Europe.

For example, CLT not PHL might serve JAN, but how many people are really flying JAN-Europe on a daily basis? (no offense JAN).
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Old Feb 4, 2018, 1:03 pm
  #814  
 
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Originally Posted by FlightNurse
I don't think it warranted to have flights to all of Europe from CLT, but I'm sure there is enough traffic to warrant one or two to LHR or LHR and FRA. But I think AA wants to keep certain hubs for international flights.
Most East Coast markets with service to CLT also have service to PHL. PHL is about 500 miles closer to Europe and connecting through PHL involves much less backtracking than through CLT for most of the population of the Eastern USA. Thus all other things equal, it's more efficient for AA to route TATL traffic through PHL than CLT. So in order for CLT to support a year-round TATL route, there needs to be enough demand for >1x daily from the east coast (>2x if also served from JFK) *and* a large portion of that excess demand must come from the Southeast (not from the Northeast, which would connect more cost-effectively with an additional flight from PHL or JFK).

Are there markets that only have service to CLT? Yes, but they're small, collectively they don't generate much TATL demand, and they face competition from DL via ATL. So AA will push passengers to make the more efficient connection (for the network as a whole) at PHL.
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Old Feb 4, 2018, 2:27 pm
  #815  
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Does anyone know what ever happened to that rumor about a new AA flight (as in added route, not frequency) to LHR?
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Old Feb 4, 2018, 10:38 pm
  #816  
 
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Originally Posted by Fanjet
Does anyone know what ever happened to that rumor about a new AA flight (as in added route, not frequency) to LHR?
Maybe it was BA's BNA-LHR route that was rumored to be AA because of the JV. On a related note, I think RDU-LHR should be taken over by BA because it makes much more sense to operate this route when you have a hub on one end. They have similar sized aircraft, so capacity shouldn't be an issue unlike DL/AF/KLM, where DL has to operate smaller CDG/AMS-USA routes because AF/KLM have too large of aircraft.
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Old Feb 5, 2018, 3:49 am
  #817  
 
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Originally Posted by DA201
Maybe it was BA's BNA-LHR route that was rumored to be AA because of the JV. On a related note, I think RDU-LHR should be taken over by BA because it makes much more sense to operate this route when you have a hub on one end. They have similar sized aircraft, so capacity shouldn't be an issue unlike DL/AF/KLM, where DL has to operate smaller CDG/AMS-USA routes because AF/KLM have too large of aircraft.
I would say there is a hub on the LHR end for origin RDU connecting beyond LHR. RDU operates the same way DL/AF/KL operates IND-CDG. There is no hub on the IND side but there is a hub on the CDG end.
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Old Feb 5, 2018, 4:49 am
  #818  
 
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I am confused by this CLT discussion. Did something happen to year-round CLT-LHR and CLT-FRA when I wasn't looking?
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Old Feb 5, 2018, 7:20 am
  #819  
 
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Originally Posted by superweak
I am confused by this CLT discussion. Did something happen to year-round CLT-LHR and CLT-FRA when I wasn't looking?

No those flights still operate, its the endless drone from the CLT fan base that thinks CLT should be the main transatlantic gateway that started this tangent.
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Last edited by Cltfc; Feb 5, 2018 at 7:58 am
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Old Feb 5, 2018, 8:53 am
  #820  
 
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Originally Posted by DA201
Maybe it was BA's BNA-LHR route that was rumored to be AA because of the JV. On a related note, I think RDU-LHR should be taken over by BA because it makes much more sense to operate this route when you have a hub on one end. They have similar sized aircraft, so capacity shouldn't be an issue unlike DL/AF/KLM, where DL has to operate smaller CDG/AMS-USA routes because AF/KLM have too large of aircraft.
AA and BA have a TATL joint venture. This means that for all practical purposes, it doesn't matter who operates the flight. The RDU flight existed long before the JV so it makes sense for AA to continue operating it as customers in that market are familiar with AA as an option to get to Europe via LHR. If they were starting the route from scratch it might make sense to use BA but AA have had the route for decades, why switch when it's working?
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Old Feb 5, 2018, 8:57 am
  #821  
 
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Successful year round TATL hub traffic requires a large base for OD traffic as well as connecting passengers. CLT is not huge a metro area like PHL, ORD, DFW, MIA. With all the other big city choices for AA, CLT just isn't going to be an also ran. Without the AA hub CLT traffic would look a lot like that of BNA, IND, AUS with a one or to TATL to LHR and CDG.
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Old Feb 5, 2018, 10:46 am
  #822  
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Originally Posted by 6P&E
Successful year round TATL hub traffic requires a large base for OD traffic as well as connecting passengers. CLT is not huge a metro area like PHL, ORD, DFW, MIA. With all the other big city choices for AA, CLT just isn't going to be an also ran. Without the AA hub CLT traffic would look a lot like that of BNA, IND, AUS with a one or to TATL to LHR and CDG.
CLT might not be as big, but the traffic that goes through the airport is larger then PHL.
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Old Feb 5, 2018, 10:53 am
  #823  
 
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Originally Posted by CALMSP
I would say there is a hub on the LHR end for origin RDU connecting beyond LHR. RDU operates the same way DL/AF/KL operates IND-CDG. There is no hub on the IND side but there is a hub on the CDG end.
I think his point is that operationally it would be easier for BA to operate it, since their hub is at one end
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Old Feb 5, 2018, 11:07 am
  #824  
 
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Originally Posted by FlightNurse
CLT might not be as big, but the traffic that goes through the airport is larger then PHL.
My point is you need OD traffic. CLT traffic is overwhelmingly connecting. These fares are often lower than OD, especially premium fares. ORD, PHL NYC etc. have an adequate OD market due to surrounding population that can support and make TATL traffic profitable.
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Old Feb 5, 2018, 11:32 am
  #825  
 
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Originally Posted by FlightNurse
CLT might not be as big, but the traffic that goes through the airport is larger then PHL.
Is the O&D traffic (what 6P&E was talking about) at PHL really smaller than CLT? I don't think it is.

AA has 91.3% of the traffic at CLT (http://www.cltairport.com/News/Docum...portFY2016.pdf, p. 122), and my memory is that 85% of AA's traffic is connecting. Assuming that all the non-AA traffic is O&D, that means that 23% of the CLT traffic (4.8 million annual enplanements) is O&D. I can't find those numbers readily for PHL, but Delta mainline + Southwest + Frontier is more than 20% of the PHL traffic (https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp?pn=1), and there's also United, Alaska, Air Canada, Lufthansa, and the regional flights that are operated for Delta to add to the non-AA airlines that will be dominated by O&D traffic. So even if all of the remaining 80% of the traffic is AA (which it isn't), 32% of the PHL traffic is O&D and the same 85% of AA traffic is connecting (may well be lower at PHL), that's 4.8 million O&D enplanements in 2016. Factor in the others, and there would be considerably more O&D traffic at PHL than CLT.
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