Last edit by: IADCAflyer
Speculation: New Routes, Hubs, Flights (2017 Onward)
Because there is community interest in having a purely speculative discussion about whether other airports will pop up to become focus cities or hubs, new routes, etc. the following new thread has been amalgamated on this topic.Note:
Going: 9 A330-300, ER190, some older 757-200 and 8 767-300ER (leaving 17), MD-80
Coming: Remainder of 16 Boeing 26 787-8, 22 Boeing 787-9 (began later 2016). A320 family - 100 A321neo, and B737-800 (100 737-MAX8) aircraft.
See Cranky Flier article on 2016 fleet changes, AA-HP-US. Link.
Also see: HELP DESK: General questions about aircraft equipment, fleet, seats, IFE, etc.
Speculation fun time: Will xxx be the next AA focus city / hub? (consolidated)
Obsolete posts from 2015 on have been moved to ARCHIVE: Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - 2015 on
All posts prior to 2015 have been moved here: ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)
Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - (2017 on)
#811
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 167
Some of what you write makes sense while others do not. We get that you want to fly from CLT to Europe, and AA does not do this year round. Could AA support a year-round flight to Europe from CLT, possible but AA does not. Could PHX support non stop flights to Europe on AA? Possible, but AA won't try it. Just like CLT if passengers if I want to go to Europe we have to make a connection, either to LAX, ORD, DFW. or take the BA non-stop. Could the real reason be the lack of aircraft? Does AA have a spare 787 sitting around for the PHX-LHR,PHX-CDG?
#812
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: PHX & AGP
Programs: AA Lifetime PLT, Bonvoy Lifetime Titanium, Hilton Gold
Posts: 11,457
I disagree none of what he/she writes makes sense except where he states Charlotte and the Southeast are growing. Many factors play into route launches for example local market dynamics/o&d, connections available, geography, competition, aircraft availability and costs are all very important. But If route planners looked at cost and connections only as MOC991 suggests Charlotte would serve every international market AA serves year round. But as noted it involves a lot more than that.
#813
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: PHL
Programs: AA
Posts: 343
CLT is optimized for domestic connections and PHL is optimized for Transatlantic connections.
PHL may have fewer flights and connections domestically than CLT, but it has flights from the important markets for TA timed to connect with the evening banks to Europe.
For example, CLT not PHL might serve JAN, but how many people are really flying JAN-Europe on a daily basis? (no offense JAN).
PHL may have fewer flights and connections domestically than CLT, but it has flights from the important markets for TA timed to connect with the evening banks to Europe.
For example, CLT not PHL might serve JAN, but how many people are really flying JAN-Europe on a daily basis? (no offense JAN).
#814
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: USA
Programs: Chase Sapphire Reserve, WFBF
Posts: 1,573
Are there markets that only have service to CLT? Yes, but they're small, collectively they don't generate much TATL demand, and they face competition from DL via ATL. So AA will push passengers to make the more efficient connection (for the network as a whole) at PHL.
#815
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Usually in SAN or Central Europe.
Programs: AA:EXP/1MM. Accor/Radisson:Silver; HH:Gold; ICH:Plt Amb.
Posts: 22,307
Does anyone know what ever happened to that rumor about a new AA flight (as in added route, not frequency) to LHR?
#816
Join Date: Sep 2015
Programs: UA Million Mile, Mileage Plus Premier 1K, SkyMiles Gold Medallion, AAdvantage Gold
Posts: 875
Maybe it was BA's BNA-LHR route that was rumored to be AA because of the JV. On a related note, I think RDU-LHR should be taken over by BA because it makes much more sense to operate this route when you have a hub on one end. They have similar sized aircraft, so capacity shouldn't be an issue unlike DL/AF/KLM, where DL has to operate smaller CDG/AMS-USA routes because AF/KLM have too large of aircraft.
#817
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Chicago, IL
Programs: Marriott Ambassador, UA Mileage Plus 1K, AA Executive Plat, Marriott Ambassador Elite
Posts: 2,344
Maybe it was BA's BNA-LHR route that was rumored to be AA because of the JV. On a related note, I think RDU-LHR should be taken over by BA because it makes much more sense to operate this route when you have a hub on one end. They have similar sized aircraft, so capacity shouldn't be an issue unlike DL/AF/KLM, where DL has to operate smaller CDG/AMS-USA routes because AF/KLM have too large of aircraft.
#819
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 167
No those flights still operate, its the endless drone from the CLT fan base that thinks CLT should be the main transatlantic gateway that started this tangent.
Last edited by Cltfc; Feb 5, 2018 at 7:58 am
#820
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: USA
Programs: Chase Sapphire Reserve, WFBF
Posts: 1,573
Maybe it was BA's BNA-LHR route that was rumored to be AA because of the JV. On a related note, I think RDU-LHR should be taken over by BA because it makes much more sense to operate this route when you have a hub on one end. They have similar sized aircraft, so capacity shouldn't be an issue unlike DL/AF/KLM, where DL has to operate smaller CDG/AMS-USA routes because AF/KLM have too large of aircraft.
#821
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: BNA and TPA
Programs: AA-EXP, UA, WN, DL- zilch by choice, IHG-Diamond, Marriott-Gold, Hilton Gold,
Posts: 566
Successful year round TATL hub traffic requires a large base for OD traffic as well as connecting passengers. CLT is not huge a metro area like PHL, ORD, DFW, MIA. With all the other big city choices for AA, CLT just isn't going to be an also ran. Without the AA hub CLT traffic would look a lot like that of BNA, IND, AUS with a one or to TATL to LHR and CDG.
#822
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: PHX & AGP
Programs: AA Lifetime PLT, Bonvoy Lifetime Titanium, Hilton Gold
Posts: 11,457
Successful year round TATL hub traffic requires a large base for OD traffic as well as connecting passengers. CLT is not huge a metro area like PHL, ORD, DFW, MIA. With all the other big city choices for AA, CLT just isn't going to be an also ran. Without the AA hub CLT traffic would look a lot like that of BNA, IND, AUS with a one or to TATL to LHR and CDG.
#823
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: London, United Kingdom
Programs: British Airways Gold
Posts: 2,636
I think his point is that operationally it would be easier for BA to operate it, since their hub is at one end
#824
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: BNA and TPA
Programs: AA-EXP, UA, WN, DL- zilch by choice, IHG-Diamond, Marriott-Gold, Hilton Gold,
Posts: 566
My point is you need OD traffic. CLT traffic is overwhelmingly connecting. These fares are often lower than OD, especially premium fares. ORD, PHL NYC etc. have an adequate OD market due to surrounding population that can support and make TATL traffic profitable.
#825
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: YYF/YLW
Programs: AA, DL, AS, VA, WS Silver
Posts: 5,951
AA has 91.3% of the traffic at CLT (http://www.cltairport.com/News/Docum...portFY2016.pdf, p. 122), and my memory is that 85% of AA's traffic is connecting. Assuming that all the non-AA traffic is O&D, that means that 23% of the CLT traffic (4.8 million annual enplanements) is O&D. I can't find those numbers readily for PHL, but Delta mainline + Southwest + Frontier is more than 20% of the PHL traffic (https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp?pn=1), and there's also United, Alaska, Air Canada, Lufthansa, and the regional flights that are operated for Delta to add to the non-AA airlines that will be dominated by O&D traffic. So even if all of the remaining 80% of the traffic is AA (which it isn't), 32% of the PHL traffic is O&D and the same 85% of AA traffic is connecting (may well be lower at PHL), that's 4.8 million O&D enplanements in 2016. Factor in the others, and there would be considerably more O&D traffic at PHL than CLT.