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Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - (2017 on)

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Old Nov 26, 2014, 4:51 am
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Speculation: New Routes, Hubs, Flights (2017 Onward)
Because there is community interest in having a purely speculative discussion about whether other airports will pop up to become focus cities or hubs, new routes, etc. the following new thread has been amalgamated on this topic.

Note:

Going: 9 A330-300, ER190, some older 757-200 and 8 767-300ER (leaving 17), MD-80

Coming: Remainder of 16 Boeing 26 787-8, 22 Boeing 787-9 (began later 2016). A320 family - 100 A321neo, and B737-800 (100 737-MAX8) aircraft.

See Cranky Flier article on 2016 fleet changes, AA-HP-US. Link.

Also see: HELP DESK: General questions about aircraft equipment, fleet, seats, IFE, etc.

Speculation fun time: Will xxx be the next AA focus city / hub? (consolidated)


Obsolete posts from 2015 on have been moved to ARCHIVE: Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - 2015 on

All posts prior to 2015 have been moved here: ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)
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Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - (2017 on)

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Old Sep 15, 2016, 10:52 pm
  #211  
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Originally Posted by nova08
There have been several reports that DL is likely bleeding money on the PHL-LHR route and are simply accepting the loss for the several year commitment at which point they will receive ownership of the LHR slot and immediately cancel PHL-LHR.
DL flies not only PHL-LHR but PHL-CDG seasonally.

Originally Posted by perseus11
If AA essentially abandons PHL, it'll possibly turn into a BOS, with more international carrier service and 1 or more principal domestic carriers - DL, B6, or ?.
DL and B6 would be in there in a hot minute. A top 10 US metro area by population without an actual dominant carrier? You aren't going to find those on the street corners.
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Old Sep 15, 2016, 11:31 pm
  #212  
 
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Originally Posted by eponymous_coward
DL flies not only PHL-LHR but PHL-CDG seasonally.



DL and B6 would be in there in a hot minute. A top 10 US metro area by population without an actual dominant carrier? You aren't going to find those on the street corners.
DL flies PHLCDG under JBA with Air France because Air France can't make PHL work for the life of it, and DL has a 757 to eek it out.

DL's average load factor on PHLLHR is beyond embarrassing. There are months when it average 45%.
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Old Sep 15, 2016, 11:37 pm
  #213  
 
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Originally Posted by AANYC1981
I believe you but working in SoHo in NYC I have not noticed less Europeans in NYC...maybe they just don't want to go to Philly @:-)
So you assume that seeing Europeans walking around in SOHO means all is great with AA JFK European travel? I see loads of Indians walking around Center City Philly every day that I'm there, but that doesn't mean there's a successful flight to/from DEL.
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Old Sep 15, 2016, 11:59 pm
  #214  
 
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Originally Posted by MAH4546
DL flies PHLCDG under JBA with Air France because Air France can't make PHL work for the life of it, and DL has a 757 to eek it out.

DL's average load factor on PHLLHR is beyond embarrassing. There are months when it average 45%.
We're addressing the situation if AA abandons Philly, not today, or yesteryear. AF couldn't make PHL-CDG work simply because there was zero feed into PHL and it was competing with US PHL-CDG 2x Daily. If AA left PHL, a DL PHL-LHR and/or PHL-CDG would likely not operate with a 757, nor would it be unprofitable. I wouldn't even be surprised to see Virgin on PHL-LHR against BA.
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Old Sep 16, 2016, 12:06 am
  #215  
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Originally Posted by perseus11
We're addressing the situation if AA abandons Philly, not today, or yesteryear. AF couldn't make PHL-CDG work simply because there was zero feed into PHL and it was competing with US PHL-CDG 2x Daily. If AA left PHL, a DL PHL-LHR and/or PHL-CDG would likely not operate with a 757, nor would it be unprofitable. I wouldn't even be surprised to see Virgin on PHL-LHR against BA.
I doubt that AA will abandon PHL-LHR or PHL-CDG, let alone PHL all together. And AA has more of an opportunity to make those two routes work than DL or VS ever would.
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Old Sep 16, 2016, 6:02 am
  #216  
 
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Originally Posted by MAH4546
No, it is the opposite. After 10 years ownership reverts to American Airlines. Delta will never own that slot. And in 2018, AA gets back Delta's BOS-LHR and DFW-ATL-LHR slots.
So after 10 years of slot ownership it reverts back to AA?

This speaks to the ability to use the slot outside of PHL-LHR but does not touch on the real ownership or time.
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Old Sep 16, 2016, 7:19 am
  #217  
 
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Originally Posted by perseus11
We're addressing the situation if AA abandons Philly, not today, or yesteryear. AF couldn't make PHL-CDG work simply because there was zero feed into PHL and it was competing with US PHL-CDG 2x Daily. If AA left PHL, a DL PHL-LHR and/or PHL-CDG would likely not operate with a 757, nor would it be unprofitable. I wouldn't even be surprised to see Virgin on PHL-LHR against BA.
DL has a transatlantic joint venture with VS, so VS is more or less already running PHL-LHR against BA. The problem is that, unlike the DL PHL-CDG (joint venture with AF), which in theory can feed European/African/Middle Eastern connections through CDG, the PHL-LHR doesn't have many VS connections in LHR and thus is mostly O/D at both ends.
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Old Sep 16, 2016, 7:54 am
  #218  
 
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Not going to name my source but I heard that ORD-HKG might be coming soon
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Old Sep 16, 2016, 8:12 am
  #219  
 
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Originally Posted by nitrous
Not going to name my source but I heard that ORD-HKG might be coming soon
CX has struggled to fill a second flight per day on this route, so this would be surprising unless AA has an advantage over CX.
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Old Sep 16, 2016, 8:35 am
  #220  
 
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Originally Posted by dylanks
CX has struggled to fill a second flight per day on this route, so this would be surprising unless AA has an advantage over CX.
If my memory serves me correct, CX did ok filling up the front but did poorly in filling the rear, hence it was canned. AA succeeding on a potential ORD-HKG flight would depend on the flight's timing and how effective in feeding the flight. AA would be seeking to fill this flight from not only Chicago based pax but basically the entire northeast/midwest. It was mentioned in the LAX-HKG thread, AA was in the planning stages of a third HKG flight. Since JFK no longer has an Asia nonstop, the only hub that makes any sense would be ORD. Also helps that oil is still quite low as compared to when CX tried double daily ORD-HKG.

In a slightly unrelated note, once DL has enough A350-900s, they will likely take a hard look at restarting DTW-HKG. If AA wants to go after the midwest/northeast market for HKG, it would make sense they start ORD-HKG a little sooner, i.e. 2018/2019, than later.
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Old Sep 16, 2016, 8:56 am
  #221  
 
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Originally Posted by nitrous
Not going to name my source but I heard that ORD-HKG might be coming soon
Welcome to FT. That's an interesting first post. I'm skeptical.
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Old Sep 16, 2016, 8:59 am
  #222  
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Originally Posted by bse118
Welcome to FT. That's an interesting first post. I'm skeptical.
As well you should be.
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Old Sep 16, 2016, 11:21 am
  #223  
 
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Originally Posted by perseus11
So you assume that seeing Europeans walking around in SOHO means all is great with AA JFK European travel? I see loads of Indians walking around Center City Philly every day that I'm there, but that doesn't mean there's a successful flight to/from DEL.
However, I work by Rock Center, and I see an awful lot of Euros with maps waiting to get on the N/Q/R headed downtown in the AM at the 49th St/7th Ave station.
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Old Sep 16, 2016, 1:03 pm
  #224  
 
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Originally Posted by george 3
However, I work by Rock Center, and I see an awful lot of Euros with maps waiting to get on the N/Q/R headed downtown in the AM at the 49th St/7th Ave station.
Are their European tourists in New York City? Um, yes. Anecdotal observation is not a very good statistical indicator of demand for air travel to/from Europe, though, to say the least.
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Old Sep 16, 2016, 2:07 pm
  #225  
 
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Originally Posted by perseus11
So you assume that seeing Europeans walking around in SOHO means all is great with AA JFK European travel? I see loads of Indians walking around Center City Philly every day that I'm there, but that doesn't mean there's a successful flight to/from DEL.
All those medical students? Yeah, most of them rarely go to India :-D and if they do it ain't profitably!
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