ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)
Oct 21, 2015, 12:54 pm
#3316
Join Date: May 2009
Location: PHL
Posts: 2,842
See above. Lots more PHL O&D to TLV than PHL O&D to EDI, and yet PHL-TLV was a long-term loser.
The world's biggest airline (new AA) appears to be continuing the pmUS management policy of not aggressively serving NYC, ostensibly because of the competition from UA and DL. If not now, then when?
There aren't any more mergers on the horizon that will better enable AA to compete in NYC, unless they're waiting for B6 to seek out a merger partner. US flew the white flag several years ago in giving away most of its non-hub, non-shuttle slots at LGA when it was still single, and now, as the world's largest airline, with the biggest, most under-utilized terminal at JFK, is still shying away from competing there?
The world's biggest airline (new AA) appears to be continuing the pmUS management policy of not aggressively serving NYC, ostensibly because of the competition from UA and DL. If not now, then when?
There aren't any more mergers on the horizon that will better enable AA to compete in NYC, unless they're waiting for B6 to seek out a merger partner. US flew the white flag several years ago in giving away most of its non-hub, non-shuttle slots at LGA when it was still single, and now, as the world's largest airline, with the biggest, most under-utilized terminal at JFK, is still shying away from competing there?
Technically new AA would also be following the PMAA management policy of not aggressively serving JFK. What remains to be seen is based on the recent crew news what does a JFK O&D international operation look like and what does a PHL international connection operation look like. Does PHL retain destinations like SNN, LIS, ATH, BRU or do they go to JFK where the O&D is.
Oct 21, 2015, 1:01 pm
#3317
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Programs: AAdvantage Exec Platinum, Hertz #1 Club Gold Five Star, IHG Platinum, Marriott Gold, HHonors Silver
Posts: 2,039
I agree. I know some people here keep saying that JFK will be the TATL hub for AA and the other hubs may just get a handful of flights to the big European cities (LHR, MAD, etc.). However, current AA management has given no indication this is the case. Whether someone agrees this would be the best move or not for the business is purely an opinion and one that is based on significantly less information than the people that work for AA that make these decisions.
Oct 21, 2015, 2:18 pm
#3318
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: PHX
Programs: AA Peon Gold
Posts: 2,915
I can answer that for him, he didn't, because they don't exist.
STL has always been an MD80 stronghold, even when AA had greater service there in the post-merger years. Unfortunately, many of those flights have now gone regional.
STL has always been an MD80 stronghold, even when AA had greater service there in the post-merger years. Unfortunately, many of those flights have now gone regional.
Oct 21, 2015, 3:38 pm
#3319
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Usually in SAN or Central Europe.
Programs: AA:EXP/1MM. Accor/Radisson:Silver; HH:Gold; ICH:Plt Amb.
Posts: 22,307
There is definitely a lot more O&D between JFK and EDI, than PHL and EDI. Moreover, I think that most of the connecting traffic to/from EDI is also served from JFK (LAS/LAX/SFO/MCO/MIA/DCA/BOS). A flight that carries more O&D traffic needs less connecting traffic to fill the plane.
Oct 22, 2015, 7:59 am
#3320
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: YYF/YLW
Programs: AA, DL, AS, VA, WS Silver
Posts: 5,951
I do suspect that USA-TLV O&D is much more concentrated in NYC than USA-EDI O&D. That may be less true of EDI-USA O&D; Scots may mostly want to visit NYC, but Americans from all over may want to visit Scotland (or have business there -- being a person who is actually periodically a nonstop PHL-EDI business traveler.).
Oct 22, 2015, 8:19 am
#3321
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Philadephia, PA
Programs: AA Platinum, Marriott Titanium/Lifetime Titanium, Hyatt Globalist, UA Silver, Hilton Gold, Hertz 5*
Posts: 477
Isn't that basically the same logic that we were told made PHL-TLV such a winner?
With UA and DL both flying NYC-EDI, that's some evidence of the center of the O&D market - NYC. My guess is that of the Scots who say "Let's go to the States for holiday," a lot more of them are thinking New York City and very few are thinking Philadelphia. And of the people in the USA saying "Let's go to Scotland this summer," practically none of them reside in the Philadelphia metro area. NYC? Yep.
See PHL-TLV as the sharp stick to poke holes in the viability of PHL-EDI.
With UA and DL both flying NYC-EDI, that's some evidence of the center of the O&D market - NYC. My guess is that of the Scots who say "Let's go to the States for holiday," a lot more of them are thinking New York City and very few are thinking Philadelphia. And of the people in the USA saying "Let's go to Scotland this summer," practically none of them reside in the Philadelphia metro area. NYC? Yep.
See PHL-TLV as the sharp stick to poke holes in the viability of PHL-EDI.
An east coast-EDI flight doesn't have the same level of concentration. Sure more people from NYC than PHL are likely to want to go to EDI; that's a factor of population. But it's also a flight that's likely to see a lot more people connecting from elsewhere in the US to/from it than the TLV flight.
Oct 22, 2015, 9:13 am
#3322
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: DCA/IAD
Programs: AA EXP; 1W Emerald; HHonors Diamond; Marriott Gold; UA dirt
Posts: 7,819
Do remember, its not as if JFK is totally isolated from the rest of the AA system and operates as an independent entity.
You can make a lot of connections into JFK from cities like IND, ORF, ORD, DCA, BNA, RDU, PIT, etc.
Some options result in a connection time that is longer than others on some routings, but you can ferry traffic through there.
You can make a lot of connections into JFK from cities like IND, ORF, ORD, DCA, BNA, RDU, PIT, etc.
Some options result in a connection time that is longer than others on some routings, but you can ferry traffic through there.
Oct 22, 2015, 5:08 pm
#3323
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: DCA/RIC
Programs: HH LTD, AA LTG
Posts: 1,015
If MDs are being phased out, someone forgot to tell the AA staff at Lambert (STL) airport.
We see freshly painted/new livery MDs there every day, along with a raft of still-shiny ones. Tack on the growing number of Embraers and CRJs, and you begin to see why STL residents joke that if an AA plane of 737 or larger size appears at STL, we assume it's lost.
We see freshly painted/new livery MDs there every day, along with a raft of still-shiny ones. Tack on the growing number of Embraers and CRJs, and you begin to see why STL residents joke that if an AA plane of 737 or larger size appears at STL, we assume it's lost.
"– Airplanes that are to be retired won’t get the new paint, and yes, we’re talking about the McDonnell Douglas MD-80s."
Oct 22, 2015, 5:15 pm
#3324
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: California
Programs: AA EXP...couple hotels and cars too
Posts: 4,548
I was once on a plane that was taken out of service due to 'too many square inches of peeling paint".
Id guess that when a plane needs paint it gets painted- with whatever livery exists. But that they dont get paint for just cosmetic reasons if that airframe is set to retire soon.
Id guess that when a plane needs paint it gets painted- with whatever livery exists. But that they dont get paint for just cosmetic reasons if that airframe is set to retire soon.
Oct 22, 2015, 5:27 pm
#3325
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Usually in SAN or Central Europe.
Programs: AA:EXP/1MM. Accor/Radisson:Silver; HH:Gold; ICH:Plt Amb.
Posts: 22,307
I was once on a plane that was taken out of service due to 'too many square inches of peeling paint".
Id guess that when a plane needs paint it gets painted- with whatever livery exists. But that they dont get paint for just cosmetic reasons if that airframe is set to retire soon.
Id guess that when a plane needs paint it gets painted- with whatever livery exists. But that they dont get paint for just cosmetic reasons if that airframe is set to retire soon.
On the topic of EDI, does anyone know if AA had to use an alloted slot for that service; or were they given one additionally because no JFK-EDI service had existed at that point?
Oct 23, 2015, 11:44 pm
#3326
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Australia
Programs: QF Gold, NZ *G, TK Elite *G
Posts: 186
I am a bit surprised at all the extra US-NZ service that is being announced lately. Air New Zealand currently has a monopoly on this entire market if you look at nonstop routes. Even Qantas, which is a top-notch airline, couldn't compete and had to drop out a few years ago.
Now, all of a sudden, UA has announced a new route from SFO, NZ has announced a new route from IAH, and AA looks like it will be announcing a new route as well. How much service can such a small country handle? I know it's also good for connections to Australia, but US-Australia is seeing an increase in capacity as well (QF at SFO, AA at LAX).
For passengers, this will be great while it lasts, but I don't think it's going to last too long. Someone is going to blink very soon.
Edit: I am referring to mainland US. I know Hawaii is also part of the US, and has service to NZ on HA.
Now, all of a sudden, UA has announced a new route from SFO, NZ has announced a new route from IAH, and AA looks like it will be announcing a new route as well. How much service can such a small country handle? I know it's also good for connections to Australia, but US-Australia is seeing an increase in capacity as well (QF at SFO, AA at LAX).
For passengers, this will be great while it lasts, but I don't think it's going to last too long. Someone is going to blink very soon.
Edit: I am referring to mainland US. I know Hawaii is also part of the US, and has service to NZ on HA.
SFO is starting at 3x weekly 787-8 in July (low season), then gradually increasing to daily 787-9 in time for the peak 2016/17 season. It is likely that NZ will drop its 2nd flight by this time to make SFO 1x daily NZ & 1x daily UA (as NZs 2nd flight has very similar timings to UAs proposed timings)
Also of note, is that whilst New Zealand is a small country (4.6 million) it is seen as a very high end, desirable destination that is very popular with Americans. Its people are (along with Australia) the worlds most travelled per capita and it is a market that has seen huge growth in travellers in both directions in recent years. I dont see any issue in AA being successful with a route to AKL.
Also, 1/3 of those travelling between the US & NZ are doing so via Australia. Probably due to cost (99% of the time its cheaper via Australia than Nonstop, despite the detour), and only *Alliance options available non-stop. Certainly something AA could tap into by offering lower fares and a OW option on the route.
Oct 24, 2015, 5:13 am
#3327
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: NZ
Programs: AA, UA, QF, TK, EY, NZ
Posts: 447
Still no word of this "imminent" AKL announcement! I'm very impatient 
Oct 24, 2015, 6:55 am
#3328
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: SBY
Programs: AA, DL, Hilton Silver, Hertz Gold
Posts: 1
How about a route between PHL and JFK? They are now both hubs in the New American system, and although they both have transatlantic service, passengers in cities that only fly to PHL may need to fly to destinations that only JFK flies to. Large scale service is probably not necessary, but a few RJs like they send to EWR would make sense.
Oct 24, 2015, 3:41 pm
#3329
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Usually in SAN or Central Europe.
Programs: AA:EXP/1MM. Accor/Radisson:Silver; HH:Gold; ICH:Plt Amb.
Posts: 22,307
How about a route between PHL and JFK? They are now both hubs in the New American system, and although they both have transatlantic service, passengers in cities that only fly to PHL may need to fly to destinations that only JFK flies to. Large scale service is probably not necessary, but a few RJs like they send to EWR would make sense.