Sep 18, 2015, 10:16 am
Last edit by: JDiver
Speculation: Future changes to AAdvantage program? (Consolidated thread)
Please update as any concrete information becomes available.
Please update as any concrete information becomes available.
This situation changed with JonNYC's revelations here and on travelingbetter.com on November 5, 2015. Please see the current thread, 2016 AAdvantage Program Changes for further discussion. This speculation thread has now been archived.
Q. What do we know at this point?
Nothing.
Q. When would a change occur?
We don't know.
Q. Will there be changes?
We don't know.
Q. Are there clues?
Mr. Parker stated there would be no changes for 2015.
Mr. Parker said he'd not be averse to using others' ideas if they worked.
28 Sep 2015: AA spokesperson Laura Nedbal to Gary Leff:
"If we were to issue changes like this we would be certain to give plenty of advanced notice."
Mr. Parker said he'd not be averse to using others' ideas if they worked.
28 Sep 2015: AA spokesperson Laura Nedbal to Gary Leff:
"If we were to issue changes like this we would be certain to give plenty of advanced notice."
ARCHIVE: Speculation: Future changes to AAdvantage program? (Consolidated)
Jan 14, 2015, 4:30 pm
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 205
ARCHIVE: Speculation: Future changes to AAdvantage program? (Consolidated)
Is there a guarantee that the new AA program(after AA and US programs are fully integrated) will not become revenue-based for reward miles... like UA and DL?
Last edited by JDiver; Jul 25, 2015 at 7:50 pm Reason: Restore original post title
Jan 14, 2015, 4:46 pm
#2
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: DCA/IAD
Programs: AS, US, Hilton, BA, DL, SPG, AA, VS
Posts: 1,628
Of course not. Remember, US supposedly had a revenue based program ready to go, but shelved it when they started their merger efforts. Now they're focused on merging successfully and aren't thinking about this right now, once the merger is settled, if they think they can make more $$ by going revenue based, they'll do it in a heartbeat. OTOH, if they think they can make more $$ by keeping it the way it is, they'll do that. The only guarantee is that they will do what will make them the most $$, and they won't care too much if we like it or not.
Jan 14, 2015, 4:54 pm
#3
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 4,966
Keep flying AA and not Delta or United and AA will likely see enough benefit it keep it this way unless Wall Street starts to hammer them to make more money. But if enough flyers change over to AA it should be some incentive to keep it up.
Last edited by olouie; Jan 15, 2015 at 3:13 pm
Jan 14, 2015, 4:55 pm
#4
Suspended
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Atherton, CA
Programs: UA 1K, AA EXP; Owner, Green Bay Packers
Posts: 21,690
I predict they will follow the crowd in two years.
Jan 14, 2015, 5:04 pm
#5
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: DCA
Programs: UA US CO AA DL FL
Posts: 50,262
I predict that the 2016 program, 2017 at the latest, will be revenue-based and if AA is smart, more directly related to revenue than UA and DL.
Jan 14, 2015, 5:20 pm
#6
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Alexandria, Longboat Key
Programs: UA Gold Marriott Gold AA Gold Choice Gold Wyndham PLAT IHG PLAT Avis President's Club Amtrak Select
Posts: 2,263
If I were a betting man, I would say the switch over to a revenue based system will occur on March 1, 2017. American would be wise to allow more than 75,000 miles earned per ticket as United and Delta limit miles earned at this level. This is detrimental to HVCs who spend more than $7,000 per ticket. This way they can go after some of Delta's big spenders and a few of United's GS clients. We just have to accept this is the future of earning miles and deal with it. At least American has not indicated minimum spending requirements will be in the future as you can just look at the UA/DL threads to find many who are so ever enthused about spending requirements for status.
Jan 14, 2015, 5:23 pm
#7
Join Date: May 2008
Location: NYC
Programs: DL PM; UA 1K; AA 1MM
Posts: 4,514
The program for future years could change in any way and we just don't know if (or maybe how) it will.
Jan 14, 2015, 6:40 pm
#8
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 4,966
In the end no one knows what will play out better.
Jan 14, 2015, 9:18 pm
#9
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: DCA
Programs: MR Plat; AA Gold; UA Silver
Posts: 352
As someone who mostly flies short haul flights up and down the east coast, I'd actually BENEFIT from a revenue based system. Like, a lot. So I actually hope they do!
Jan 14, 2015, 11:03 pm
#10
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: LGA/JFK/EWR
Programs: UA 1K1.75MM, Hyatt Globalist, abandoned Marriott LTT (RIP SPG), Hertz PC
Posts: 21,167
UA is the worst airline in the US. At a certain point, product and reliability matter to HVFs. Not all GS are hub captives or on corp contracts.
Jan 14, 2015, 11:32 pm
#11
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: East Coast
Programs: AA CONCIERGE KEY & 1MM, HILTON DIAMOND
Posts: 11,970
Of course not. Remember, US supposedly had a revenue based program ready to go, but shelved it when they started their merger efforts. Now they're focused on merging successfully and aren't thinking about this right now, once the merger is settled, if they think they can make more $$ by going revenue based, they'll do it in a heartbeat. OTOH, if they think they can make more $$ by keeping it the way it is, they'll do that. The only guarantee is that they will do what will make them the most $$, and they won't care too much if we like it or not.
Jan 15, 2015, 8:50 am
#12
Original Poster
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 205
so the consensus it that the new AA will be a fool not to switch to revenue-based miles after the dust settles?
Jan 15, 2015, 9:38 am
#13
Join Date: May 2009
Location: South Park, CO
Programs: Tegridy Elite
Posts: 5,678
No guarantee at all. Why would there be?
Jan 15, 2015, 10:00 am
#15
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: DCA
Programs: UA US CO AA DL FL
Posts: 50,262
You can also get the middle ground. Lots of business won't pony up for business/first but will pay for economy fares for their regular travellers. Making short term cash of the big spenders is fine, but there is a large market of regular travellers who will keep flying. Sure UA/DAL want to fill the cabin with cost is no object flyers, but AA could get those middle tier spenders. Better than flying with empty seats.
In the end no one knows what will play out better.
In the end no one knows what will play out better.
FT is a terrible place to sample. Most people who use a FFP simply accumulate miles and then spend them when they can (or not at all). They are glad of an occasional UG, but don't spend time strategizing.
I doubt that a shift to spend-based loses much of anything. And, from the AA perspective, where will those people go?