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ARCHIVE: Speculation: Future changes to AAdvantage program? (Consolidated)

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Old Sep 18, 2015, 10:16 am
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Speculation: Future changes to AAdvantage program? (Consolidated thread)
Please update as any concrete information becomes available.

This situation changed with JonNYC's revelations here and on travelingbetter.com on November 5, 2015. Please see the current thread, 2016 AAdvantage Program Changes for further discussion. This speculation thread has now been archived.

Q. What do we know at this point?

Nothing.

Q. When would a change occur?

We don't know.

Q. Will there be changes?

We don't know.

Q. Are there clues?
Mr. Parker stated there would be no changes for 2015.

Mr. Parker said he'd not be averse to using others' ideas if they worked.

28 Sep 2015: AA spokesperson Laura Nedbal to Gary Leff:
"If we were to issue changes like this we would be certain to give plenty of advanced notice."
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ARCHIVE: Speculation: Future changes to AAdvantage program? (Consolidated)

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Old Jan 16, 2015 | 8:46 am
  #31  
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Originally Posted by Dr. HFH
This one is spectacular, JD. I just returned from a 72 hour ICN-HKG-DFW-BOS paid F roundtrip (actually business requirement, not an MR, though it could have been) on which 74,366 miles have posted so far, and I'm still awaiting posting for the HKG/ICN segments.
This is how AA will reward HV fliers - if you are flying like this for business and get this type of mileage no need to hunt for SAAver inventory - just go ahead and book AAnytime.
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Old Jan 17, 2015 | 12:32 am
  #32  
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I think AA will stick with the current scheme with some modifications, and this approach will probably even out eventually in terms of profit with what DL/UA are doing.

DL seems to follow a mixed approach with well-rewarded HVC up front, and making their coach section Greyhound, with very cheap fares and minimum to no miles.

OTOH, AA's strategy seems to keep their HVC well rewarded and satisfied, and also keep the middle segment of their flyers as well (and get several of those disgruntled middle level flyers from DL/UA). They will give out some more miles to keep this middle group happy, but they will likely have fuller planes and perhaps slightly higher fare prices. In the end, both strategies will likely yield comparable results via different routes and will even out.

So, in a sense, whatever DL is saving by reducing the ff miles they give out, they will have to pay in reduced fare prices (in order to survive the loss of business to other airlines, from disgruntled flyers leaving them). All in all, AA has a much more dignified customer approach, both in appearance and in essence, which should yield comparable or better results to that of DL.

Last edited by nk15; Jan 17, 2015 at 12:39 am
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Old Jan 17, 2015 | 1:03 am
  #33  
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Originally Posted by JMN57
This is how AA will reward HV fliers - if you are flying like this for business and get this type of mileage no need to hunt for SAAver inventory - just go ahead and book AAnytime.
Yeah, if only the food was edible. Also, some very mediocre PDB "champagne" was served at room temperature in the standard AA plastic champagne cups. It was virtually undrinkable.

I'll just buy tickets and milk this current promo/policy for all it's worth, then use the miles for CX F redemptions. Hard to turn down AA F on this route, though, given the mileage earning potential.

Last edited by Dr. HFH; Jan 17, 2015 at 1:11 am
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Old Jan 17, 2015 | 2:00 pm
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They Can't Get To A Revenue-Based Structure

..fast enough for me.
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Old Jan 17, 2015 | 2:14 pm
  #35  
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Originally Posted by nk15
I think AA will stick with the current scheme with some modifications, and this approach will probably even out eventually in terms of profit with what DL/UA are doing.

DL seems to follow a mixed approach with well-rewarded HVC up front, and making their coach section Greyhound, with very cheap fares and minimum to no miles.
DL is the only US airline that gives you a choice of peanuts, pretzels, or cookies in Y, not to mention that their planes are usually more clean than those AA/US and UA so if DL's Y is Greyhound, then AA/US and UA's Y would be classified as steerage extreme given their lack of amenities and services. I do agree that DL's ScrewMiles is an F-rating frequent flyer program, especially after the 2015 changes. I just put my DL flight miles into Aeromexico now.

Also, have you seen DL's lowest F fares? I just scored FLL - ATL - SFO for $298 on-way a few weeks ago. F had never been that cheap.
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Old Jan 17, 2015 | 2:55 pm
  #36  
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AA has weaker global network. If it introduces EQDs (which devalue the alliance) it runs the risk of driving some elites to DL and UA which have stronger networks.

Granted airline CEOs so stupid things at times.
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Old Jan 17, 2015 | 3:05 pm
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I read a very interesting article about how revenue based programs fall into the same issues as the current programs. The main point was that the mileage based systems would open seats for awards based on the percentage of seats the airline projected they could sell. This would essentially allow them to control the redemption of miles and ultimately keep a cap on the total overhead for running the loyalty program.

The downside is as the market for air travel continues to improve these types of programs start to see fewer and fewer award seats available because the airline can sell them for money. From a customer PR standpoint having you earn huge numbers of points only to stay that the availability to redeem them is near non-existent just isn't a good idea. So making the program revenue based and making it harder to earn points for the fewer redemption opportunities is likely better from a brand image, customer satisfaction point of view.

So unless AA decides to set themselves apart, I think eventually they'll go revenue.
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Old Jan 17, 2015 | 5:17 pm
  #38  
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Originally Posted by whoknew89
So unless AA decides to set themselves apart, I think eventually they'll go revenue.
AA simply doesn't want to impose revenue minimums and thereby they look like heroes in front of frequent flyers but in reality, Gold and Platinum members who frequently get upgraded to F/J are paying for those 500-mile upgrades that DL and UA claim they give for free (and again emphasis on "they claim" since free Elite upgrades are becoming more and more scarce on these airlines).

When I was only PLAT with AA, on average I was spending $275-$345 for each round-trip ticket, and the 500-milers were far more expensive than the actual net ticket prices.

For example, a round-trip for $305 that required 12 upgrades in total would mean that I would pay the $305 + $360 (price for 12 500-mile upgrades) = a total of $665.

Also, as untalented as I find AA's new management, I can't image that they would overlook the fact that with the current system, AA has managed to be the most profitable among the giant U.S. airlines and that was even before US Airways gets integrated and the majority of Elites, starting in Q2 of this year, will be forced to pay for upgrades.
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Old Jan 17, 2015 | 6:38 pm
  #39  
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The huge advantage of AA right now is basically their miles flown-based FF program, and their amazing 20k coach/50k business international saver awards. If they do away with these, people will just switch to DL that has somewhat better network and product, and their mid level elites (Golds) can score a 50% rate of free domestic upgrades.
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Old Jan 17, 2015 | 6:48 pm
  #40  
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Originally Posted by mre5765
AA has weaker global network. If it introduces EQDs (which devalue the alliance) it runs the risk of driving some elites to DL and UA which have stronger networks.
IMO ST is far, far weaker than OW...it may have *more* carriers, but a lot of it is junk.

Plus, DL is creating artificial tiers of ST alliance partners which totally negates the point of an alliance.
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Old Jan 17, 2015 | 7:04 pm
  #41  
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Unfortunately, the other weak piece of OW is that for Europe everything is pretty much routed through London/BA, with their big scammer award fees, so as long as you can avoid them (which is getting harder to do), things are fine.
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Old Jan 17, 2015 | 9:14 pm
  #42  
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Originally Posted by Often1
All that does is shift low-spend, high frequency fliers from UA & DL to AA, while UA & DL keep the HVC's. A bad deal for AA.

I predict that the 2016 program, 2017 at the latest, will be revenue-based and if AA is smart, more directly related to revenue than UA and DL.
UA's strategy is to focus on managed corporate contracts. I don't know about DL. UA doles out their highest value FF status to corporate flyers on high value contracts, not through their FFP. They've essentially devalued the rest of the program to the point that it's close to meaningless as an loyalty incentive.

UA's new strategy is sending many HV fliers elsewhere. I'm one of them. I purchased lots of J and F fares, comfortably met qualification requirements for the new FF status thing. The switch to a revenue based FFP is one that would have benefited me, at least in theory. I left UA because I couldn't tolerate their crappy service, wretched operations and the ongoing war against their customers.

The real question for me isn't whether AA will make it's FFP revenue based. It's whether they'll downgrade their service, declare war on their customers, devalue their frequent flyer program and then go revenue based for determining miles and status.

UA is not doing well financially. While DL may offer a more reasonable alternative, United's strategy isn't one likely to be copied by management looking out for the bottom line.
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Old Jan 23, 2015 | 12:09 pm
  #43  
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Originally Posted by fly747first
DL is the only US airline that gives you a choice of peanuts, pretzels, or cookies in Y, not to mention that their planes are usually more clean than those AA/US and UA so if DL's Y is Greyhound, then AA/US and UA's Y would be classified as steerage extreme given their lack of amenities and services. I do agree that DL's ScrewMiles is an F-rating frequent flyer program, especially after the 2015 changes. I just put my DL flight miles into Aeromexico now.

Also, have you seen DL's lowest F fares? I just scored FLL - ATL - SFO for $298 on-way a few weeks ago. F had never been that cheap.
Don't forget that DL is also going to start offering a bare bones service too, which will be cheap and a lot more like Greyhound than it is now. So you may not get that service unless you pay more for a "standard" economy ticket or better.
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Old Jan 23, 2015 | 12:23 pm
  #44  
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Just wondering if I will get something in my mail box from some insurance company 'suggesting' me to buy a 'AAdvantage protection plan'..
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Old Jan 23, 2015 | 3:01 pm
  #45  
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Originally Posted by TENYKS
Is there a guarantee...?
Of course not. Why would you even ask if there is a "guarantee" of anything related to FF programs???
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