ARCHIVE: Speculation: Future changes to AAdvantage program? (Consolidated)
 

Is there a guarantee that the new AA program(after AA and US programs are fully integrated) will not become revenue-based for reward miles... like UA and DL?

Of course not. Remember, US supposedly had a revenue based program ready to go, but shelved it when they started their merger efforts. Now they're focused on merging successfully and aren't thinking about this right now, once the merger is settled, if they think they can make more $$ by going revenue based, they'll do it in a heartbeat. OTOH, if they think they can make more $$ by keeping it the way it is, they'll do that. The only guarantee is that they will do what will make them the most $$, and they won't care too much if we like it or not.

Keep flying AA and not Delta or United and AA will likely see enough benefit it keep it this way unless Wall Street starts to hammer them to make more money. But if enough flyers change over to AA it should be some incentive to keep it up.

I predict they will follow the crowd in two years.

All that does is shift low-spend, high frequency fliers from UA & DL to AA, while UA & DL keep the HVC's. A bad deal for AA.

I predict that the 2016 program, 2017 at the latest, will be revenue-based and if AA is smart, more directly related to revenue than UA and DL.

If I were a betting man, I would say the switch over to a revenue based system will occur on March 1, 2017. American would be wise to allow more than 75,000 miles earned per ticket as United and Delta limit miles earned at this level. This is detrimental to HVCs who spend more than $7,000 per ticket. This way they can go after some of Delta's big spenders and a few of United's GS clients. We just have to accept this is the future of earning miles and deal with it. At least American has not indicated minimum spending requirements will be in the future as you can just look at the UA/DL threads to find many who are so ever enthused about spending requirements for status.

The only guarantee is that the program defined for calendar year 2015, which defines one's status for calendar year 2016, is not going to be revenue based.

The program for future years could change in any way and we just don't know if (or maybe how) it will.

You can also get the middle ground. Lots of business won't pony up for business/first but will pay for economy fares for their regular travellers. Making short term cash of the big spenders is fine, but there is a large market of regular travellers who will keep flying. Sure UA/DAL want to fill the cabin with cost is no object flyers, but AA could get those middle tier spenders. Better than flying with empty seats.

In the end no one knows what will play out better.

As someone who mostly flies short haul flights up and down the east coast, I'd actually BENEFIT from a revenue based system. Like, a lot. So I actually hope they do!

UA is the worst airline in the US. At a certain point, product and reliability matter to HVFs. Not all GS are hub captives or on corp contracts.

US was always terrible at coming up with revenue ideas. Ben Baldanza (now CEO of Spirit) tried to implement a policy in which only Y, B, M, and H booking classes earned Preferred status and that failed miserably before the program even took off as US panicked with the number of CPs who told them, fine do that, and we are gone.

so the consensus it that the new AA will be a fool not to switch to revenue-based miles after the dust settles?

No guarantee at all. Why would there be?

I think that's safe to say. Just a matter of time.

There are gradations. It's not as though AA or any carrier wants to shed someone who makes them money, perhaps not an HVF but close enough. The question is how much you do for people and what it takes for them to stick around.

FT is a terrible place to sample. Most people who use a FFP simply accumulate miles and then spend them when they can (or not at all). They are glad of an occasional UG, but don't spend time strategizing.

I doubt that a shift to spend-based loses much of anything. And, from the AA perspective, where will those people go?