Last edit by: JDiver
Speculation: Future changes to AAdvantage program? (Consolidated thread)
Please update as any concrete information becomes available.
Please update as any concrete information becomes available.
This situation changed with JonNYC's revelations here and on travelingbetter.com on November 5, 2015. Please see the current thread, 2016 AAdvantage Program Changes for further discussion. This speculation thread has now been archived.
Q. What do we know at this point?
Nothing.
Q. When would a change occur?
We don't know.
Q. Will there be changes?
We don't know.
Q. Are there clues?
Mr. Parker stated there would be no changes for 2015.
Mr. Parker said he'd not be averse to using others' ideas if they worked.
28 Sep 2015: AA spokesperson Laura Nedbal to Gary Leff:
"If we were to issue changes like this we would be certain to give plenty of advanced notice."
Mr. Parker said he'd not be averse to using others' ideas if they worked.
28 Sep 2015: AA spokesperson Laura Nedbal to Gary Leff:
"If we were to issue changes like this we would be certain to give plenty of advanced notice."
ARCHIVE: Speculation: Future changes to AAdvantage program? (Consolidated)
#91
Moderator: American AAdvantage




Join Date: May 2000
Location: NorCal - SMF area
Programs: AA LT EXP; HH LT Diamond, Matre-plongeur des Muccis
Posts: 62,948
The "new AAdvantage program" began in March, 2015. Please read the stickers and other threads to see how it works - pretty much the old AAdvantage program, but US Dividend Miles members were converted to AAdvantage.
As to changes in the future, major changes were made April 8, 2014. Mr. Parker implied no changes (such as revenue-based status), but did not say "never"; 2017? Maybe.
Thread merged into extant thread.
/Moderator
As to changes in the future, major changes were made April 8, 2014. Mr. Parker implied no changes (such as revenue-based status), but did not say "never"; 2017? Maybe.
Thread merged into extant thread.
/Moderator
Last edited by JDiver; Jul 25, 2015 at 7:51 pm
#92

Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: wurtulla,queensland,australia
Programs: hh diamond,Qantas club life,AA EX-explat.SPG plat.
Posts: 1,435
#93




Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Austin, TX
Programs: CoUniHound 1K 1MM, AA EXP 2MM, DL Plat, Marriott Lifetime Titanium
Posts: 1,680
I do not think that AA will follow the other two legacies into a revenue based FF program. Regardless of the control of Wall Street, each of the 3 legacies will end up positioning themselves slightly differently. DL will maximize immediate benefits by providing the best overall flight experience. UA will try to rely on their network. AA will take the middle ground and retain a strong FF program.
As always, should this prediction prove false, we will disavow any knowledge of this post
As always, should this prediction prove false, we will disavow any knowledge of this post

#94
Moderator: American AAdvantage




Join Date: May 2000
Location: NorCal - SMF area
Programs: AA LT EXP; HH LT Diamond, Matre-plongeur des Muccis
Posts: 62,948
#95


Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Austin, TX - AUS
Programs: AA Platinum, Hilton, Hyatt, IHG, Marriott
Posts: 1,649
Any changes if i were betting will happen for the 2017 program, considering the details of the 2015/2016 program have already been announced. They can't announce something completely different for 2016 as we're all currently in the qualification period for the 2016 year with all the flying we do in 2015. both DL/UA when they implemented their changes gave quite a long period of heads up.
That being said, revenue based FF is an inevitability.
That being said, revenue based FF is an inevitability.
#96

Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: New York, Paris
Programs: AA ExPlat 4MM, AA Life Plat, Lufthansa FT, Delta Basic
Posts: 1,593
Any changes if i were betting will happen for the 2017 program, considering the details of the 2015/2016 program have already been announced. They can't announce something completely different for 2016 as we're all currently in the qualification period for the 2016 year with all the flying we do in 2015. both DL/UA when they implemented their changes gave quite a long period of heads up.
That being said, revenue based FF is an inevitability.
That being said, revenue based FF is an inevitability.
Giving a front seat for status to the AA EQ "Points" and a secondary role to the EQ "Miles" largely does that. Also, Premium passengers and Elite program members have been so much showered with extra bonus miles and EQ points that the object can only be to attenuate for them a drastic impending devaluation. Even basic members have been given the opportunity to buy bonus miles at an average very reduced price.
As to your above quoted remark, obviously the Jan 2016 effective date will only affect status acquisition for 2017. So we basically are in agreement.
#97

Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: New York, Paris
Programs: AA ExPlat 4MM, AA Life Plat, Lufthansa FT, Delta Basic
Posts: 1,593
If you are being facetious, which I hope, it would be nice to clarify it as it does not come out as obvious.
If, on the other hand, you are being serious, I'd love to smoke what you are using. Can you spare some ?
#98
FlyerTalk Evangelist




Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: home = LAX
Posts: 26,113
After Oct 17, only the reservation systems are integrated. There are still unintegrated things like the planes themselves (they may all be painted the same, but pmUS planes on the inside are still pmAS, not AA).
#99
FlyerTalk Evangelist


Join Date: May 2012
Location: MCO
Programs: AA, B6, DL, EK, EY, QR, SQ, UA, Amex Plat, Marriott Tit, HHonors Gold
Posts: 12,810
I don't think that's an unreasonable claim at all. On a whole, the DL inflight experience is the best and most consistent of the major US airlines. What DL lacks is an FFP. Skymiles is a complete joke and barely worth taking the time and effort to input one's FF number when making a reservation. The only thing AA really still has going for it is AAdvantage. Once that is devalued there will really be no reason left to fly AA.
#100
FlyerTalk Evangelist




Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Denver DEN-APA
Programs: AF Platinum, EK Gold Royal Air Maroc OW Emerald Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 22,538
I don't think that's an unreasonable claim at all. On a whole, the DL inflight experience is the best and most consistent of the major US airlines. What DL lacks is an FFP. Skymiles is a complete joke and barely worth taking the time and effort to input one's FF number when making a reservation. The only thing AA really still has going for it is AAdvantage. Once that is devalued there will really be no reason left to fly AA.
#101




Join Date: May 2009
Location: SEA
Programs: AA EXP (2.5MM), Hilton Gold, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 4,857
Speculation: CY 2016 Changes & Qualification Requirements?
What are folks doing for Calendar Year 2016 and flights/MRs?
I'm a purely leisure traveller flying 100k+ EQM/year. But I'm worried about AA changing requirements in CY 2016 and either introducing a spend requirement for EXP and/or possibly changing RDM to be based on spend.
Are other folks going ahead with booking flights in AA counting on the RDM and no spend requirement for status? Or are folks holding back or booking on other carriers?
There are a couple good routes to Asia in 2016 for decent fares but I worry that I'd end up with very low RDM based on spend and/or very low progress toward re-qualifying for EXP next year. With about 200k miles towards lifetime plat I'm tempted to just focus on LT miles, but flying to Asia for <$1kUSD and getting ~40k RDM is a lot different than <10k RDM.
Any advice/suggestions from the forum? Go ahead and book Mileage Vacations at good prices? or wait and see what pops up?
I'm a purely leisure traveller flying 100k+ EQM/year. But I'm worried about AA changing requirements in CY 2016 and either introducing a spend requirement for EXP and/or possibly changing RDM to be based on spend.
Are other folks going ahead with booking flights in AA counting on the RDM and no spend requirement for status? Or are folks holding back or booking on other carriers?
There are a couple good routes to Asia in 2016 for decent fares but I worry that I'd end up with very low RDM based on spend and/or very low progress toward re-qualifying for EXP next year. With about 200k miles towards lifetime plat I'm tempted to just focus on LT miles, but flying to Asia for <$1kUSD and getting ~40k RDM is a lot different than <10k RDM.
Any advice/suggestions from the forum? Go ahead and book Mileage Vacations at good prices? or wait and see what pops up?
#102




Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: DCA
Programs: UA LT 1K, AA EXP, Marriott LT Titan, Avis PC, Hilton Gold
Posts: 9,925
I am still booking as normal for next year, for events and vacation trips. Although I am not booking pure mileage runs at this time, unless the fare is really cheap.
We don't know if there will be changes. If there are - they won't be worst than UA or DL. You will still be EXP in 2016 so you have a year to wind down.
If AA copies UA and DL, then I will likely just move back to UA with my LT 1K and fly only when I need to and fly AA with LT Gold when they have best routing.
We don't know if there will be changes. If there are - they won't be worst than UA or DL. You will still be EXP in 2016 so you have a year to wind down.
If AA copies UA and DL, then I will likely just move back to UA with my LT 1K and fly only when I need to and fly AA with LT Gold when they have best routing.
#103
Join Date: Jul 2001
Programs: AA EP
Posts: 2,203
What are folks doing for Calendar Year 2016 and flights/MRs?
I'm a purely leisure traveller flying 100k+ EQM/year. But I'm worried about AA changing requirements in CY 2016 and either introducing a spend requirement for EXP and/or possibly changing RDM to be based on spend.
Are other folks going ahead with booking flights in AA counting on the RDM and no spend requirement for status? Or are folks holding back or booking on other carriers?
There are a couple good routes to Asia in 2016 for decent fares but I worry that I'd end up with very low RDM based on spend and/or very low progress toward re-qualifying for EXP next year. With about 200k miles towards lifetime plat I'm tempted to just focus on LT miles, but flying to Asia for <$1kUSD and getting ~40k RDM is a lot different than <10k RDM.
Any advice/suggestions from the forum? Go ahead and book Mileage Vacations at good prices? or wait and see what pops up?
I'm a purely leisure traveller flying 100k+ EQM/year. But I'm worried about AA changing requirements in CY 2016 and either introducing a spend requirement for EXP and/or possibly changing RDM to be based on spend.
Are other folks going ahead with booking flights in AA counting on the RDM and no spend requirement for status? Or are folks holding back or booking on other carriers?
There are a couple good routes to Asia in 2016 for decent fares but I worry that I'd end up with very low RDM based on spend and/or very low progress toward re-qualifying for EXP next year. With about 200k miles towards lifetime plat I'm tempted to just focus on LT miles, but flying to Asia for <$1kUSD and getting ~40k RDM is a lot different than <10k RDM.
Any advice/suggestions from the forum? Go ahead and book Mileage Vacations at good prices? or wait and see what pops up?
i do, however, think that partner awards will increase in price... I mean, CX to HKG for, what, 50K/67.5K for a premium cabin is crazy compared to AA's move towards AAnytime redemptions and the US to HKG costing 2-3X more.
On the earn side, if they wanted to thin the herd and make EP a bunch of higher spenders, they could go back to the old system of qualifying on points only. If this were to happen for 2017 qualification, they would have to make the announcement soon --- or any changes to qualification --- as people are starting to book for 2016 travel.
The net..we don't know. and the clock is ticking. something has to be said soon!
#104
FlyerTalk Evangelist




Join Date: Sep 1999
Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Programs: OWEmerald; STARGold; BonvoyPlat; IHGPlat/Amb; HiltonGold; A|ClubPat; AirMilesPlat
Posts: 38,190
I see next year as the final year of status quo with any major changes coming during 2017 for 2018 status/benefits. I'll re-qualify for ExecPlat by the end of September but have very little travel booked through the balance of the 4th quarter based on current work and personal plans, though work projects could change that.
Have just booked my first personal OW trip for 2016 (February) that will earn me about 10K EQMs. Figure I can manage 8K-10K a month on average through next year, but I don't want to do much more advance booking until details of 2016 are known. My plan though is to do a fair bit of flying down the South America, at least one trip down to South Africa, and maybe two to Japan/SE Asia.
However, I don't plan to pursue top tier elite in both OW and STAR, so will drop down to UA/MPGold next year and may do very little flying on STAR carriers (other than my domestic Canada flights with AC) during 2016, so may lose status altogether unless changes at AA are too draconian. I need three more years of 100K flying with AA to get MM, by which time I will be ready to slow down.
Que sera sera...
Have just booked my first personal OW trip for 2016 (February) that will earn me about 10K EQMs. Figure I can manage 8K-10K a month on average through next year, but I don't want to do much more advance booking until details of 2016 are known. My plan though is to do a fair bit of flying down the South America, at least one trip down to South Africa, and maybe two to Japan/SE Asia.
However, I don't plan to pursue top tier elite in both OW and STAR, so will drop down to UA/MPGold next year and may do very little flying on STAR carriers (other than my domestic Canada flights with AC) during 2016, so may lose status altogether unless changes at AA are too draconian. I need three more years of 100K flying with AA to get MM, by which time I will be ready to slow down.
Que sera sera...
#105

Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 2,387
My thought is that all attention is focused on the integration for October. Any changes will be made after that. And it is too late in the year to give folks lead time for CY2016 at that late stage without considerable negative blowback. Suddenly forcing 20K extra EQMs on people with 1 month to spare will be unlikely.
I expect no changes for CY2016. But likely for CY2017, to be announced around mid CY2016. I say book away!
I expect no changes for CY2016. But likely for CY2017, to be announced around mid CY2016. I say book away!



