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ARCHIVE: Speculation: Future changes to AAdvantage program? (Consolidated)

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Old Sep 18, 2015, 10:16 am
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Speculation: Future changes to AAdvantage program? (Consolidated thread)
Please update as any concrete information becomes available.

This situation changed with JonNYC's revelations here and on travelingbetter.com on November 5, 2015. Please see the current thread, 2016 AAdvantage Program Changes for further discussion. This speculation thread has now been archived.

Q. What do we know at this point?

Nothing.

Q. When would a change occur?

We don't know.

Q. Will there be changes?

We don't know.

Q. Are there clues?
Mr. Parker stated there would be no changes for 2015.

Mr. Parker said he'd not be averse to using others' ideas if they worked.

28 Sep 2015: AA spokesperson Laura Nedbal to Gary Leff:
"If we were to issue changes like this we would be certain to give plenty of advanced notice."
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ARCHIVE: Speculation: Future changes to AAdvantage program? (Consolidated)

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Old Jul 25, 2015 | 7:35 pm
  #91  
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The "new AAdvantage program" began in March, 2015. Please read the stickers and other threads to see how it works - pretty much the old AAdvantage program, but US Dividend Miles members were converted to AAdvantage.

As to changes in the future, major changes were made April 8, 2014. Mr. Parker implied no changes (such as revenue-based status), but did not say "never"; 2017? Maybe.

Thread merged into extant thread.

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Last edited by JDiver; Jul 25, 2015 at 7:51 pm
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Old Jul 25, 2015 | 7:48 pm
  #92  
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Red face

Originally Posted by JDiver
Thread now retitled..

/Modeator
Cannibals now on FT?
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Old Jul 25, 2015 | 7:48 pm
  #93  
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I do not think that AA will follow the other two legacies into a revenue based FF program. Regardless of the control of Wall Street, each of the 3 legacies will end up positioning themselves slightly differently. DL will maximize immediate benefits by providing the best overall flight experience. UA will try to rely on their network. AA will take the middle ground and retain a strong FF program.

As always, should this prediction prove false, we will disavow any knowledge of this post
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Old Jul 25, 2015 | 7:53 pm
  #94  
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Originally Posted by drron
Cannibals now on FT?
:burp:

"Smart" autocorrect courtesy iPad Air 2. Corrected, thanks.
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Old Jul 25, 2015 | 8:35 pm
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Originally Posted by Col Ronson
Any changes if i were betting will happen for the 2017 program, considering the details of the 2015/2016 program have already been announced. They can't announce something completely different for 2016 as we're all currently in the qualification period for the 2016 year with all the flying we do in 2015. both DL/UA when they implemented their changes gave quite a long period of heads up.

That being said, revenue based FF is an inevitability.
Parker said no AAdvantage changes while they focus on integration. After Oct 17 when AA and US are integrated, the program is subject to change. I bet his next project after completing integration is a revenue based FF program. However, I wouldn't expect any changes to take effect until Jan 1, 2016. Don't count on advanced notice for changes - Parker has shown many times his willingness to surprise people with overnight changes.
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Old Jul 25, 2015 | 8:40 pm
  #96  
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Originally Posted by Col Ronson
Any changes if i were betting will happen for the 2017 program, considering the details of the 2015/2016 program have already been announced. They can't announce something completely different for 2016 as we're all currently in the qualification period for the 2016 year with all the flying we do in 2015. both DL/UA when they implemented their changes gave quite a long period of heads up.

That being said, revenue based FF is an inevitability.
If Doug Parker is smart, and even those who do not like him concede that he is, he will instruct that the new FFP should be in large part revenue based but in a less obvious way (as in "offensive to basic members") than the main 2 other competing programs.

Giving a front seat for status to the AA EQ "Points" and a secondary role to the EQ "Miles" largely does that. Also, Premium passengers and Elite program members have been so much showered with extra bonus miles and EQ points that the object can only be to attenuate for them a drastic impending devaluation. Even basic members have been given the opportunity to buy bonus miles at an average very reduced price.

As to your above quoted remark, obviously the Jan 2016 effective date will only affect status acquisition for 2017. So we basically are in agreement.
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Old Jul 26, 2015 | 6:10 am
  #97  
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Originally Posted by Catbert10

..... DL will maximize immediate benefits by providing the best overall flight experience. .......
Are you serious ?

If you are being facetious, which I hope, it would be nice to clarify it as it does not come out as obvious.

If, on the other hand, you are being serious, I'd love to smoke what you are using. Can you spare some ?
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Old Jul 26, 2015 | 9:20 am
  #98  
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Originally Posted by Austin787
Parker said no AAdvantage changes while they focus on integration. After Oct 17 when AA and US are integrated
After Oct 17, only the reservation systems are integrated. There are still unintegrated things like the planes themselves (they may all be painted the same, but pmUS planes on the inside are still pmAS, not AA).
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Old Jul 26, 2015 | 10:55 am
  #99  
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Originally Posted by Cofyknsult
Are you serious ?

If you are being facetious, which I hope, it would be nice to clarify it as it does not come out as obvious.

If, on the other hand, you are being serious, I'd love to smoke what you are using. Can you spare some ?
I don't think that's an unreasonable claim at all. On a whole, the DL inflight experience is the best and most consistent of the major US airlines. What DL lacks is an FFP. Skymiles is a complete joke and barely worth taking the time and effort to input one's FF number when making a reservation. The only thing AA really still has going for it is AAdvantage. Once that is devalued there will really be no reason left to fly AA.
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Old Jul 26, 2015 | 11:07 am
  #100  
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Originally Posted by cmd320
I don't think that's an unreasonable claim at all. On a whole, the DL inflight experience is the best and most consistent of the major US airlines. What DL lacks is an FFP. Skymiles is a complete joke and barely worth taking the time and effort to input one's FF number when making a reservation. The only thing AA really still has going for it is AAdvantage. Once that is devalued there will really be no reason left to fly AA.
Agree, at least domestically which is all that matters to me as I wouldn't fly either internationally. DL has better and more consistent service, better catering and universal Wifi. And now better seats without even doing a thing... with AA's march towards new universally uncomfortable F seats on all single aisle planes.
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Old Aug 18, 2015 | 7:05 pm
  #101  
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Speculation: CY 2016 Changes & Qualification Requirements?

What are folks doing for Calendar Year 2016 and flights/MRs?

I'm a purely leisure traveller flying 100k+ EQM/year. But I'm worried about AA changing requirements in CY 2016 and either introducing a spend requirement for EXP and/or possibly changing RDM to be based on spend.

Are other folks going ahead with booking flights in AA counting on the RDM and no spend requirement for status? Or are folks holding back or booking on other carriers?

There are a couple good routes to Asia in 2016 for decent fares but I worry that I'd end up with very low RDM based on spend and/or very low progress toward re-qualifying for EXP next year. With about 200k miles towards lifetime plat I'm tempted to just focus on LT miles, but flying to Asia for <$1kUSD and getting ~40k RDM is a lot different than <10k RDM.

Any advice/suggestions from the forum? Go ahead and book Mileage Vacations at good prices? or wait and see what pops up?
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Old Aug 18, 2015 | 7:17 pm
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I am still booking as normal for next year, for events and vacation trips. Although I am not booking pure mileage runs at this time, unless the fare is really cheap.

We don't know if there will be changes. If there are - they won't be worst than UA or DL. You will still be EXP in 2016 so you have a year to wind down.

If AA copies UA and DL, then I will likely just move back to UA with my LT 1K and fly only when I need to and fly AA with LT Gold when they have best routing.
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Old Aug 18, 2015 | 7:22 pm
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Originally Posted by mikelat
What are folks doing for Calendar Year 2016 and flights/MRs?

I'm a purely leisure traveller flying 100k+ EQM/year. But I'm worried about AA changing requirements in CY 2016 and either introducing a spend requirement for EXP and/or possibly changing RDM to be based on spend.

Are other folks going ahead with booking flights in AA counting on the RDM and no spend requirement for status? Or are folks holding back or booking on other carriers?

There are a couple good routes to Asia in 2016 for decent fares but I worry that I'd end up with very low RDM based on spend and/or very low progress toward re-qualifying for EXP next year. With about 200k miles towards lifetime plat I'm tempted to just focus on LT miles, but flying to Asia for <$1kUSD and getting ~40k RDM is a lot different than <10k RDM.

Any advice/suggestions from the forum? Go ahead and book Mileage Vacations at good prices? or wait and see what pops up?
From everything I have heard, there won't be any changes to a spend-based system because of the focus on the combined US-AA IT. i doubt AAdvantage is getting any IT time right now! Plus, Mr. Parker did say there would be no changes this year -- now that could mean allot of different thing -- no substantial changes. no movement to spend, no changes for CY 15. fact is we just don't know exactly what he meant by this!

i do, however, think that partner awards will increase in price... I mean, CX to HKG for, what, 50K/67.5K for a premium cabin is crazy compared to AA's move towards AAnytime redemptions and the US to HKG costing 2-3X more.

On the earn side, if they wanted to thin the herd and make EP a bunch of higher spenders, they could go back to the old system of qualifying on points only. If this were to happen for 2017 qualification, they would have to make the announcement soon --- or any changes to qualification --- as people are starting to book for 2016 travel.

The net..we don't know. and the clock is ticking. something has to be said soon!
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Old Aug 18, 2015 | 8:24 pm
  #104  
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I see next year as the final year of status quo with any major changes coming during 2017 for 2018 status/benefits. I'll re-qualify for ExecPlat by the end of September but have very little travel booked through the balance of the 4th quarter based on current work and personal plans, though work projects could change that.

Have just booked my first personal OW trip for 2016 (February) that will earn me about 10K EQMs. Figure I can manage 8K-10K a month on average through next year, but I don't want to do much more advance booking until details of 2016 are known. My plan though is to do a fair bit of flying down the South America, at least one trip down to South Africa, and maybe two to Japan/SE Asia.

However, I don't plan to pursue top tier elite in both OW and STAR, so will drop down to UA/MPGold next year and may do very little flying on STAR carriers (other than my domestic Canada flights with AC) during 2016, so may lose status altogether unless changes at AA are too draconian. I need three more years of 100K flying with AA to get MM, by which time I will be ready to slow down.

Que sera sera...
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Old Aug 18, 2015 | 8:51 pm
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My thought is that all attention is focused on the integration for October. Any changes will be made after that. And it is too late in the year to give folks lead time for CY2016 at that late stage without considerable negative blowback. Suddenly forcing 20K extra EQMs on people with 1 month to spare will be unlikely.

I expect no changes for CY2016. But likely for CY2017, to be announced around mid CY2016. I say book away!
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