Originally Posted by
olouie
You can also get the middle ground. Lots of business won't pony up for business/first but will pay for economy fares for their regular travellers. Making short term cash of the big spenders is fine, but there is a large market of regular travellers who will keep flying. Sure UA/DAL want to fill the cabin with cost is no object flyers, but AA could get those middle tier spenders. Better than flying with empty seats.
In the end no one knows what will play out better.
There are gradations. It's not as though AA or any carrier wants to shed someone who makes them money, perhaps not an HVF but close enough. The question is how much you do for people and what it takes for them to stick around.
FT is a terrible place to sample. Most people who use a FFP simply accumulate miles and then spend them when they can (or not at all). They are glad of an occasional UG, but don't spend time strategizing.
I doubt that a shift to spend-based loses much of anything. And, from the AA perspective, where will those people go?