ashill

To be clear: for a future booking, AS wouldn't have sent any money to DE, right? So the money (or whatever gets exchanged between the airlines for award tickets) would still be in AS's hands. That's my understanding of the normal process -- the ticketing airline holds on to the currency and settles with the operating and/or marketing airline as appropriate after travel. Assuming that is true and DE did go under between now and travel time, I would think AS would honor the booking like any other advance schedule change, allowing a refund or new award on a different partner, right?

sfozrhfco

Die Welt is reporting a 380 million euro loan from the State of Hesse and the Federal government to keep them alive for the moment. They will go through this very quickly as they pay bills in cash while trying to extricate themselves from all the Thomas Cook infrastructure and travel agency sales channels. There is still a lot of uncertainty about the long term survival of the brand but does help in the short term---especially as the German travel insurance scheme only has 110 euros available and it would cost much more to cover all the repatriations. Keeping the brand alive and halting the transport of package passengers that were booked through Thomas Cook channels leaves less and less people covered by the insurance program as the days go by. Given that reports were they only needed 200 million at first and are now getting twice as much, it will be interesting to see how fast they go through this money and how badly their revenues have been hurt and their expenses have increased as a result of the liquidation of TC.

Still unclear if it will actually be approved or if the EU also needs to approve it--or the terms as to how they are going to take on this very large debt and pay it back.

https://www.welt.de/newsticker/dpa_n...it-helfen.html

jrl767

in your situation I would look for alternatives NOW rather than later, when dozens (if not hundreds, if not thousands) of passengers who haven’t been (or haven’t been made) aware of the situation are scrambling for even fewer seats

that would be an especially difficult situation to deal with in real time (i.e., finding out at the airport that your flight isn’t operating due to the airline going under the night or the week before)

Scrooge McDuck

Condor is currently flying and it looks like they will do for quite some time. Situation is currenlty as follows:

1. Condor is earning money instead of losing and is currently not close to a default
2. Condor is currently losing revenues as travel arrangenments by the Thomas Cook group which have not yet been started are no longer valid
3. Condor is the largest charter carrier in Germany and is also flying for lots of other travel groups as Condor has a pretty good reputation here in Germay. There might be even more passengers on any Condor flight coming from Thomas Cook competitors than from the Thomas Cook group
4. Thomas Cook Germany is currenlty also not losing money and - if they were alone - they would not have to apply for a default
5. Condor asked for a interim credit to overcome any cash flow short comings during this situation to avoid an unneeded stop of operations. German press stated this afternoon that 200M € have been asked and are required. This evening almost all German newpapers are reporting that 380M € are granted
6. Thomas Cook Germany also asked for such an interim credit. No decision yet. If this one would be granted then the situation at Condor would ease

sfozrhfco

It is a bit more complicated. It is highly unlikely that Condor is profitable this month with revenues falling rapidly and expenses increasing. They still need EU approval to get the loan. The loan is reported to be only for 6 months. They also need to set up an insolvency process to extricate themselves from the Thomas Cook group. All of that leads to ongoing uncertainty. It seems highly unlikely in this current economic climate going into the low season that this will end well for Condor and its employees as a stand alone company. Maybe some other company like TUI will take them over but to expect that this will be an easy process for them with revenues going down, people not confident in booking them for future travel, and expenses escalating--not to mention the risk that creditors and other stake holders from Thomas Cook look to make things difficult for Condor---there are still a ton of risks ahead for them and certainly no guarantees of success.

barabuski

I think the argument in Condor's favor is that they've been profitable, expected to report yearly profits at the end of this month, and generally are a decent run airline. Yes, its likely that TC going under will temporarily hurt their bookings (and potentially long-term trust, though I don't think the average person connects Condor to TC). But this seems like a perfect situation for a loan to get Condor through the next 6 months - something happened that was relatively out of their control, they get a loan to weather that, and then hopefully return to their profitable streak. That said, the process of figuring out what happens to TC's 49.99% share of Condor is a messy one and I am certainly not qualified enough to understand how that will work.

nerdbirdsjc

Profitable in the context of being part of a larger holding company that can shuffle around assets, liabilities, and cash flows? Sure, but an entirely different animal than being profitable as a standalone entity. Even a best case scenario involves months of uncertainty as to the future of the airline, and network/service changes that occur may be abrupt and with little practical resource.

Anyone ticketed by AS on DE award segments should research and book alternative award flights if at all possible.

barabuski

Do you have evidence that TC has ever shuffled around assets or liabilities to help Condor? Not being accusatory, I just haven't heard much in the ways of "synergy" between TC and Condor; from an outsider's perspective it seems they were run fairly independently. To me the biggest drop would simply be less travel bookings because TC is no longer there as an agency, and the German market has an above average tendency to use travel agencies. However, it appears TC accounted for around 5% of these bookings in Germany, which is certainly not insignificant but less than competitor bookings (source: https://www.dw.com/en/thomas-cooks-d...ing/a-50549020).

BTW, I'm not advocating that Condor will be a healthy airline forever, but just that it's unlikely they cease to exist in the next 6 months or so. Given their non-terrible balance sheet, I would also expect they would be bought (Lufthansa perhaps, since they expressed an interest before?) before they would default.

kileysmom

It's good news that the governments are willing to loan them the funds needed to work their way through the TC failure. Hopefully, that will be enough to keep them profitable and attractive to a good buyer. Standing on their own for very long might be a much more difficult task...lots of missing pieces for doing that but, who knows, some good management might pull it off! With the loans in place and, hopefully, approved by the EU, it wouldn't feel too risky to have award seats on Condor unless there was an imperative reason to have to fly....an event such as a wedding might make me move to another carrier at this point. Can't make it up later! Wondering if any travel insurance purchased in the last month or so will cover losses due to a Condor shut down?

roberto.triviani

What is the consensus re: ordering new Condor flights, avoid it?

rustykettel

It really depends on your level of acceptable risk and backup plan. DE is flying for now, and so far no accounts of abnormal delays or service cuts.

jiburi

Not sure, but knowing Thomas Cook said book with confidence for travel through September 30th, they were mostly right, just off by 9 days. I do, however believe Condor is better than this and can survive this. They will likely need to make some route cuts, but likely only for short term. For now, I would book without hesitation and make adjustments when that comes..

Jiburi

kileysmom

It appears the German government entities bail outs are sufficient to see Condor through the winter. If you are thinking of travel over the next 5 maybe 6 months it seems safe enough. Guess I'd get travel insurance that covers the potential of failure of the airline and be sure they know you have Condor tickets before paying the premium! Then you don't face a significant, if any, loss.

jiburi

Several report indicating Financial Reports, future route expansion, and planning regarding Condor. Outlook seem good.... and now new option, Seattle - Munich. Seem Alaska partnership is working well for Condor.

Financial summary Condor Simple Flying, November 29, 2019

Condor 2020 routes Pointsguy December 6, 2019

Seattle to Munich Travel Daily News, December 5, 2019

Jiburi

PVDtoDEL

Interesting that SEA is going from 0 carriers to 2 carriers (LH and DE) on SEA-MUC next year...