Stranger

Seems to me this really means that AC was quite low a year ago. While for instance WS already was relatively high and stayed so.

wayner92

The FFs are leaving? Where are they going to go?

I am a business SE100k FF in the financial sector - I fly to Europe about 5 times per year, Asia 2-4 times per year, NA TransCon 2-4, shorter flights to NYC, BOS, etc 4-5. I generally fly J class except for short flights (where I try to upgrade with points). Who am I going to switch to? WJ doesn't fly to HKG and LHR and they don't have J class. So I am not going there.

Am I going to fly one of the US carriers??? No frackin' way - they make AC look like the Platinum standard for customer service. So my options are to use BA for flights to the UK and CX for flights to Asia. But their schedules aren't any more convenient (daily CX YYZ-HKG flight leaves at 1:25am) and they also charge big surcharges when you want to use your points.

So FFs like me are stuck with AC. It could be worse - we could be stuck with UA or DL.

CloudsBelow

You're exactly right. It was an unprofitable company with share prices in the dumps ............ Back when so many here loved it! And "supported" it! And were "loyal" to it!

I'd just like to know from the folks who feel AC is nose-diving to oblivion with no direction thanks to HD/Rouge/Perk cuts etc ....
When was AC great?
What year(s)?

I mean, if they're failing miserably now, They must have been great at some point, right?

CloudsBelow

CX west, BA east?
Is OneWorld not an option?

What about SkyTeam?
China Eastern just announced YYZ service. Could take them or KE west,
East on KLM, AF, Saudia

CT1

Unless you're an Air Canada investor / potential investor who cares about the stock price?

wayner92

One World is an option - with the others I would have to do connecting flights in most instances, including adding extra stops in the US or Seoul.

CX flies daily to HK leaving Toronto at 1:25am and arrives at 6:05am - ugh. They also fly W,F,Su leaving 2:15pm - that sounds better. But when I fly to Asia for business Wed makes no sense since you arrive Thursday night. Fri isn't much better as you arrive on Sat. I want to fly to Asia on Sun or Mon and be home for the weekend, unless I have to stay a second week.

BA's flights from YYZ to LHR are ok except they don't have a daytime flight like AC's 8am flight. All of their flights are redeyes. I prefer to take the daytime flight but I could live with the redeyes. But BA only has two flights per day 6 and 10 vs AC's 8am plus 6, 8 & 11pm.

And it appears that both BA and CX have high scamcharges on reward tickets, just like AC.

And then my other flying within NA would not help build up my points.

So what would I have to gain by switching away from AC? I don't think there is a vast difference in service levels between J class in the different airlines (I flew CX J class from HKG-LHR last year). And I don't want to make the 15 hr YYZ-HKG flight a few hours longer by going through other cities.

When I fly for business I want to minimize cost, time, and inconvenience more than I want to build up FF points on specific airlines.

tcook052

http://online.barrons.com/news/artic...mod=BOL_twm_da

America's big air carriers have enjoyed rapidly ascending share prices as years-long efficiency efforts and a gradually improving economy are renewing investor confidence. And stock prices remain reasonable. However, investors seeking a deep discount should look north.

Air Canada (ticker: AIDEF) (AC-B.TO) shares have risen mightily, too, but are much cheaper than U.S. peers based on fundamental measures of value like earnings. And the Montreal company's earnings are poised to soar. Shares could climb another 40% over the next year.

Symmetre

Who? Why, none other than Air Canada CEO Calin Rovinescu.

Also:
How's that for a start?

Wallace99

The dividend tithing doesn't matter, I work for a gold mining company, its large and has never paid a dividend and never wants to. Gold companies for most part dont pay one or if they do they are very small. Berkshire Hathaway never wants to pay one either, doesn't mean you shouldn't invest.


I've owned westjet for a couple years now, and happy with it, although they pay a very small dividend. With AC you are paying for the new vision of the company, less service, more seats, and better use of capital. I don't own stock but was really close last summer to buying in, wish I did.

CloudsBelow

You showed me. Wow, I mean, what a relevant noteworthy point. A typical CEO hog is quick to pat himself on the back.

But, bu ... bu .... bu .... But, Just wait until the "TPAC Tangoization" effects are felt, and Rouge, and 10 wide, and FF pulldown. Sure it might not be this year, or the next. But just wait. The race to the bottom, the walmarting of the Canadian skies is all wrong!! Why can't AC see what's so obvious to us!!!!
LOL ... FT is sure to become a quieter place ...

pitz

The reasonably decent performance of AC as a stock has a lot to do with the delays in the 787, and the resultant squeeze in capacity. More so than it has to do with AC actually being an efficient firm. They've managed to get quite a bit more life than I think expected out of the 320 series planes which basically have minimal carrying costs at this point.

Once the 787s arrive in reasonable numbers, I expect the stock to crater just like it did in the early 1990s when the 320-series started arriving in significant numbers.

One thing that is quite apparent these days is that most travel is leisure/discretionary. Which wasn't the case in the 1980s and 1990s when most air travel was business. So as we see the housing market pull back, it is quite likely that AC is particularly vulnerable to a loss of overall business. There's a very fine line between optimal use of capacity, over-capacity, and under-capacity. And its very hard to walk that tightrope over the long term in the airline industry.

CloudsBelow

By squeeze in capacity, do you mean the additional 4,000 seats from HD arrival and reconfig of 319 and 767?
Or, Do you mean AC setting new ASM (ie., capacity) records every month for the longest time

pitz

Sure. They did this without taking on many, if any new aircraft. But as the 787s arrive, and eventually the 737s, there will be pressure to move backwards. After all, not only are the aircraft larger, but they've contracted for many more of them than they actually need for strict replacement.

Capacity has obviously not grown as fast as demand. Which is to AC's credit, and explains their recent performance.

CloudsBelow

Agree ... Something has to give around Fall of 2015. Don't think stimulated demand will increase as fast as capacity unless a current player exits the stage.
At some point, your costs will floor and can only go up from there (see Southwest the last couple years).
Not sure why AC wouldnt try to settle into a sweet spot capacity wise, Economies of scale aside

KenHamer

So what are the numbers now?