Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Airlines and Mileage Programs > Air Canada | Aeroplan
Reload this Page >

What drives Air Canada's stock price?

What drives Air Canada's stock price?

Old Aug 11, 2014, 5:23 pm
  #61  
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: YVR
Programs: OZ Diamond, Jiffypark Manhattan Gold
Posts: 4,485
Originally Posted by Shareholder
Let's just say in this regard, AC's team has transformed the airline into a relatively stable operation with a credible face in the Market. As I posted the other day, I don't see the stock rising above $10 for any sustained period of time and it is more likely to be "normal' in the $8-$9 range...which ironically is where the stock was when the original company's stock was first issued back in the 1980s and where it languished until the CP/AC/ONEX take-over battle of 1999/2000. (Yes, these are actual constant dollars, not adjusted for anything.)
Largely agree, though I think $9-$10 can be sustainable. I think it'll flirt with $11 but ultimately never steadily stay above 10.50
drvannostren is offline  
Old Nov 27, 2014, 10:38 am
  #62  
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Ontario, CAN
Posts: 5,813
Originally Posted by tyberius
Anyway, in this case, you did something really stupid.

You were told you were doing something stupid, but you mocked.

You were given advice, but you ignored it and you mocked.

You posted another stupid idea, piling stupid on top of stupid. You got something trying to explain in depth what you're doing wrong, something helpful, but you don't have the processing power between your ears to digest it.

So you just continue on your stupid way, thinking that you somehow have the ability to predict coin flips.

You don't.

At least here you admit that you're gambling. You just gamble on Air Canada so with the hopes that if you get it right you can come here and crow about it. Instead, here you are, looking stupid and eating crow. Except you keep firing your guns as you go down in flames. LOL.

Anyway keep it up.
While waiting for my sell order to be filled this morning, I actually had time to read through the hundreds of lines of your savvy advice here. Very profound stuff.

Looks like gambling and stupid decisions can be very lucrative some times ... Any other sideline advice of yours I can fade to realize 15% return in 4 months?
CloudsBelow is offline  
Old Nov 27, 2014, 11:44 am
  #63  
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Posts: 3,393
Originally Posted by drvannostren
Largely agree, though I think $9-$10 can be sustainable. I think it'll flirt with $11 but ultimately never steadily stay above 10.50
$11.18 right now, and if the Saudis want to carry on this price war into 2016, as some are forecasting, it's headed to $16 or higher.
Sebring is offline  
Old Dec 2, 2014, 11:24 am
  #64  
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: YEG
Programs: HH Silver
Posts: 56,466
Air Canada, WestJet among airlines upgraded by Bank of America

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2014/12/1/Air...il-prices.aspx

North American airline earnings will climb 73 percent to $19 billion in 2015 from $11 billion this year, bolstered by lower jet fuel costs, a Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst forecast.

Glenn Engel raised earnings estimates today for nine U.S. carriers along with Air Canada (AC.TO 1.4%) and WestJet (WJA.TO 2.15%) as a result of the decline in prices for oil, which is refined into jet fuel. Airlines also will benefit as lower energy costs give consumers more discretionary income they may spend on travel, he said.
tcook052 is offline  
Old Dec 2, 2014, 6:45 pm
  #65  
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: YYC
Programs: BA bronze, Aeroplan peon
Posts: 4,749
I wonder if WestJet and to a lesser extent AC will be affected by lower oil prices in a negative way? Lots of people make their living from oil in the west and if the price drops too far there will be a slowdown in the western province's economy and a lot less discretionary income to be spent on travel.
Jagboi is offline  
Old Dec 2, 2014, 11:14 pm
  #66  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: YXE
Posts: 3,050
Originally Posted by Jagboi
I wonder if WestJet and to a lesser extent AC will be affected by lower oil prices in a negative way? Lots of people make their living from oil in the west and if the price drops too far there will be a slowdown in the western province's economy and a lot less discretionary income to be spent on travel.
Since most growth in travel on AC and WestJet over the past decade has been leisure/discretionary (if you want proof of this, just look at the rapidly shrinking J cabins and the relentless drive to increase density in Y, in case the clientele that you see in the lounges today vs. "back then", or on the planes isn't enough of a hint!), I'd expect a bursting of the Canadian real estate bubble to have just as enormous of an impact this time around. AC and CP didn't do very well in the early 1990s either, in the wake of the then real estate bubble falling apart. Both airlines, cumulatively, suffered quite significant over-capacity, and both airlines effectively destroyed themselves trying to deploy that overcapacity.

The good news for FT'ers is that a falling RE market with the associated wealth redistribution arising from such, and the lower energy cost environment may very well end up reversing the trend of decreased reliance on J. The 1990s RE bubble collapse ended up giving way to quite a vibrant business environment and wealth concentration, and that is very positive for those who dream of higher quality and more available offerings "up front". The few business travellers that exist today are notoriously stingy, with most not paying for J, but as the business environment improves, invariably J demand should increase.

Last edited by pitz; Dec 2, 2014 at 11:19 pm
pitz is offline  
Old Dec 8, 2014, 6:28 pm
  #67  
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 8,019
2008/9ish, the last time there was a significant drop in oil prices, airlines wrote off 100s of millions in fuel hedge losses.
Anyone keep track of this close enough to know if fuel hedge write downs will happen this time?
tracon is online now  
Old Dec 8, 2014, 9:33 pm
  #68  
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Vancouver, Canada
Programs: United MileagePlus Silver, Nexus, Global Entry
Posts: 8,799
Originally Posted by wayner92
The FFs are leaving? Where are they going to go?
Lots of places:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/air-c...eady-left.html
gglave is offline  
Old Jan 29, 2015, 11:52 am
  #69  
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: YEG
Programs: HH Silver
Posts: 56,466
Air Canada stock unjustifiably cheap amid weak oil: Cormark

http://business.financialpost.com/20..._lsa=0400-efb5

Air Canada, already coming off a rally that has sent the stock up more than tenfold from its lows in 2012, is setting the stage for a multi-year ramp in its earnings, says Cormark Securities analyst David Newman.
tcook052 is offline  
Old Jan 29, 2015, 3:20 pm
  #70  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Toronto YYZ UA-1K 1MM,QFgold
Programs: Royal Ambassador/ SPG Platinum 75/Marriott gold
Posts: 14,283
well we dont have to wait to long to get real financial results. Perhaps some information on AC fuel Hedge might be included.

WestJet will report its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 3 and Air Canada will report on Feb. 11.
why fly is offline  
Old Jan 29, 2015, 4:47 pm
  #71  
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,130
Originally Posted by tcook052
http://business.financialpost.com/20..._lsa=0400-efb5

Air Canada, already coming off a rally that has sent the stock up more than tenfold from its lows in 2012, is setting the stage for a multi-year ramp in its earnings, says Cormark Securities analyst David Newman.
Ha. Just a couple of days ago, the Post was saying this:

Mr. Cherniavsky also pointed out that the rate cut caused the Canadian dollar to further weaken, which will lead to higher airline operating costs and lower demand for travel abroad.

But demand is just one side of the yield equation, the analyst told clients. The other is supply, which remains an equally concerning issue in Canada.
http://business.financialpost.com/20...anadian-peers/

Take your pick.
yulred is offline  
Old Jan 29, 2015, 4:51 pm
  #72  
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: YEG
Programs: HH Silver
Posts: 56,466
Air Canada Stock Could Double in a Year

http://online.barrons.com/articles/a...ear-1422553711

Air Canada Stock Could Double in a Year
tcook052 is offline  
Old Jan 29, 2015, 7:41 pm
  #73  
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: sqrt(-united states of apologist)
Programs: *$ Green
Posts: 5,403
Originally Posted by tcook052
http://online.barrons.com/articles/a...ear-1422553711

Air Canada Stock Could Double in a Year
So, with all due respect, I am assuming this post claims that the answer to "What drives Air Canada's stock price?" is "Websites and posters trying to push stock prices up by creating momentum?"
SparseFlyer is offline  
Old Jan 29, 2015, 8:23 pm
  #74  
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: YEG
Programs: HH Silver
Posts: 56,466
Assumptions like stock predictions can be dangerous things.
tcook052 is offline  
Old Jan 29, 2015, 8:26 pm
  #75  
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: sqrt(-united states of apologist)
Programs: *$ Green
Posts: 5,403
Originally Posted by tcook052
Assumptions like stock predictions can be dangerous things.
I see what you did there.
SparseFlyer is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Manage Preferences - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.