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What drives Air Canada's stock price?

What drives Air Canada's stock price?

Old Mar 5, 2014, 11:27 am
  #16  
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Originally Posted by CloudsBelow

Trailing 6-month share movement :

AC : +103.8%
DL : +69.2%
UA : +54.1%
US : +34.1%
WS : +11.1%


Trailing 52-week share movement :

AC : +143.2%
DL : +134.2%
UA : +65.5%
US : +65.4%
WS : + 5.2%
Seems to me this really means that AC was quite low a year ago. While for instance WS already was relatively high and stayed so.
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Old Mar 5, 2014, 11:36 am
  #17  
 
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Originally Posted by KenHamer
... even if many FFers are in fact leaving, 'cause currently there's a line up around the block of people waiting to take their place. In today's market, it appears no matter what you do, you can survive and maybe even prosper.
The FFs are leaving? Where are they going to go?

I am a business SE100k FF in the financial sector - I fly to Europe about 5 times per year, Asia 2-4 times per year, NA TransCon 2-4, shorter flights to NYC, BOS, etc 4-5. I generally fly J class except for short flights (where I try to upgrade with points). Who am I going to switch to? WJ doesn't fly to HKG and LHR and they don't have J class. So I am not going there.

Am I going to fly one of the US carriers??? No frackin' way - they make AC look like the Platinum standard for customer service. So my options are to use BA for flights to the UK and CX for flights to Asia. But their schedules aren't any more convenient (daily CX YYZ-HKG flight leaves at 1:25am) and they also charge big surcharges when you want to use your points.

So FFs like me are stuck with AC. It could be worse - we could be stuck with UA or DL.
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Old Mar 5, 2014, 11:40 am
  #18  
 
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Originally Posted by Stranger
Seems to me this really means that AC was quite low a year ago. While for instance WS already was relatively high and stayed so.
You're exactly right. It was an unprofitable company with share prices in the dumps ............ Back when so many here loved it! And "supported" it! And were "loyal" to it!

I'd just like to know from the folks who feel AC is nose-diving to oblivion with no direction thanks to HD/Rouge/Perk cuts etc ....
When was AC great?
What year(s)?

I mean, if they're failing miserably now, They must have been great at some point, right?

Last edited by CloudsBelow; Mar 5, 2014 at 11:52 am
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Old Mar 5, 2014, 11:48 am
  #19  
 
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Originally Posted by wayner92
Who am I going to switch to? WJ doesn't fly to HKG and LHR and they don't have J class. So I am not going there.
CX west, BA east?
Is OneWorld not an option?

What about SkyTeam?
China Eastern just announced YYZ service. Could take them or KE west,
East on KLM, AF, Saudia

Last edited by CloudsBelow; Mar 5, 2014 at 11:57 am
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Old Mar 5, 2014, 1:03 pm
  #20  
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Unless you're an Air Canada investor / potential investor who cares about the stock price?
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Old Mar 5, 2014, 2:11 pm
  #21  
 
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Originally Posted by CloudsBelow
CX west, BA east? Is OneWorld not an option?
One World is an option - with the others I would have to do connecting flights in most instances, including adding extra stops in the US or Seoul.

CX flies daily to HK leaving Toronto at 1:25am and arrives at 6:05am - ugh. They also fly W,F,Su leaving 2:15pm - that sounds better. But when I fly to Asia for business Wed makes no sense since you arrive Thursday night. Fri isn't much better as you arrive on Sat. I want to fly to Asia on Sun or Mon and be home for the weekend, unless I have to stay a second week.

BA's flights from YYZ to LHR are ok except they don't have a daytime flight like AC's 8am flight. All of their flights are redeyes. I prefer to take the daytime flight but I could live with the redeyes. But BA only has two flights per day 6 and 10 vs AC's 8am plus 6, 8 & 11pm.

And it appears that both BA and CX have high scamcharges on reward tickets, just like AC.

And then my other flying within NA would not help build up my points.

So what would I have to gain by switching away from AC? I don't think there is a vast difference in service levels between J class in the different airlines (I flew CX J class from HKG-LHR last year). And I don't want to make the 15 hr YYZ-HKG flight a few hours longer by going through other cities.

When I fly for business I want to minimize cost, time, and inconvenience more than I want to build up FF points on specific airlines.
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Old Apr 15, 2014, 1:39 pm
  #22  
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Air Canada Stock Has 40% Upside

http://online.barrons.com/news/artic...mod=BOL_twm_da

America's big air carriers have enjoyed rapidly ascending share prices as years-long efficiency efforts and a gradually improving economy are renewing investor confidence. And stock prices remain reasonable. However, investors seeking a deep discount should look north.

Air Canada (ticker: AIDEF) (AC-B.TO) shares have risen mightily, too, but are much cheaper than U.S. peers based on fundamental measures of value like earnings. And the Montreal company's earnings are poised to soar. Shares could climb another 40% over the next year.
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Old Apr 15, 2014, 2:09 pm
  #23  
 
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Originally Posted by KenHamer
Recently there have been many claims that Air Canada's rapidly escalating stock price was due to the skill (nay, brilliance) of their executive management team. I think that's utter nonsense.
Originally Posted by CloudsBelow
Who's claimed that?
Who? Why, none other than Air Canada CEO Calin Rovinescu.
“The pleasing part is that the marketplace is giving the company credit for the transformational events that have occurred.”

“As a result of our focus on our corporate priorities, being cost transformation, international growth, customer engagement, and culture change, we’ve seen an important improvement in virtually every metric by which a company is measured.”

“There’s no question that success breeds success.”

- Calin Rovinescu, Financial Post, October 17, 2013

Also:

“It takes a great entrepreneur to start a business with a clean sheet of paper, but it takes enormous entrepreneurial talent to convert a 75-year-old company into something that is entrepreneurial,” says Rovinescu. And yes, he’s talking about himself.

- Globe and Mail, November 29, 2013

How's that for a start?
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Old Apr 15, 2014, 4:24 pm
  #24  
 
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Originally Posted by DrPete
WOW - Didn't realize they had NEVER issued a dividend. What a business! And unlike some high-tech stocks, its not as if they make up for no dividend by rising share prices over a longer period of time.
The dividend tithing doesn't matter, I work for a gold mining company, its large and has never paid a dividend and never wants to. Gold companies for most part dont pay one or if they do they are very small. Berkshire Hathaway never wants to pay one either, doesn't mean you shouldn't invest.


I've owned westjet for a couple years now, and happy with it, although they pay a very small dividend. With AC you are paying for the new vision of the company, less service, more seats, and better use of capital. I don't own stock but was really close last summer to buying in, wish I did.
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Old Apr 15, 2014, 5:36 pm
  #25  
 
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Originally Posted by Symmetre
Who? Why, none other than Air Canada CEO Calin Rovinescu.
How's that for a start?
You showed me. Wow, I mean, what a relevant noteworthy point. A typical CEO hog is quick to pat himself on the back.

Originally Posted by tcook052
http://online.barrons.com/news/artic...mod=BOL_twm_da

Air Canada (ticker: AIDEF) (AC-B.TO) shares have risen mightily, too, but are much cheaper than U.S. peers based on fundamental measures of value like earnings. And the Montreal company's earnings are poised to soar. Shares could climb another 40% over the next year.
But, bu ... bu .... bu .... But, Just wait until the "TPAC Tangoization" effects are felt, and Rouge, and 10 wide, and FF pulldown. Sure it might not be this year, or the next. But just wait. The race to the bottom, the walmarting of the Canadian skies is all wrong!! Why can't AC see what's so obvious to us!!!!
LOL ... FT is sure to become a quieter place ...
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Old Apr 15, 2014, 5:58 pm
  #26  
 
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The reasonably decent performance of AC as a stock has a lot to do with the delays in the 787, and the resultant squeeze in capacity. More so than it has to do with AC actually being an efficient firm. They've managed to get quite a bit more life than I think expected out of the 320 series planes which basically have minimal carrying costs at this point.

Once the 787s arrive in reasonable numbers, I expect the stock to crater just like it did in the early 1990s when the 320-series started arriving in significant numbers.

One thing that is quite apparent these days is that most travel is leisure/discretionary. Which wasn't the case in the 1980s and 1990s when most air travel was business. So as we see the housing market pull back, it is quite likely that AC is particularly vulnerable to a loss of overall business. There's a very fine line between optimal use of capacity, over-capacity, and under-capacity. And its very hard to walk that tightrope over the long term in the airline industry.

Last edited by pitz; Apr 15, 2014 at 6:04 pm
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Old Apr 15, 2014, 6:04 pm
  #27  
 
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Originally Posted by pitz
The reasonably decent performance of AC as a stock has a lot to do with the delays in the 787, and the resultant squeeze in capacity. More so than it has to do with AC actually being an efficient firm. .
By squeeze in capacity, do you mean the additional 4,000 seats from HD arrival and reconfig of 319 and 767?
Or, Do you mean AC setting new ASM (ie., capacity) records every month for the longest time
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Old Apr 15, 2014, 6:25 pm
  #28  
 
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Originally Posted by CloudsBelow
By squeeze in capacity, do you mean the additional 4,000 seats from HD arrival and reconfig of 319 and 767?
Or, Do you mean AC setting new ASM (ie., capacity) records every month for the longest time
Sure. They did this without taking on many, if any new aircraft. But as the 787s arrive, and eventually the 737s, there will be pressure to move backwards. After all, not only are the aircraft larger, but they've contracted for many more of them than they actually need for strict replacement.

Capacity has obviously not grown as fast as demand. Which is to AC's credit, and explains their recent performance.
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Old Apr 15, 2014, 9:08 pm
  #29  
 
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Originally Posted by pitz
But as the 787s arrive, and eventually the 737s, there will be pressure to move backwards.
Agree ... Something has to give around Fall of 2015. Don't think stimulated demand will increase as fast as capacity unless a current player exits the stage.
At some point, your costs will floor and can only go up from there (see Southwest the last couple years).
Not sure why AC wouldnt try to settle into a sweet spot capacity wise, Economies of scale aside
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Old Jul 28, 2014, 11:02 pm
  #30  
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Originally Posted by CloudsBelow

Trailing 6-month share movement :

AC : +103.8%
DL : +69.2%
UA : +54.1%
US : +34.1%
WS : +11.1%


Trailing 52-week share movement :

AC : +143.2%
DL : +134.2%
UA : +65.5%
US : +65.4%
WS : + 5.2%
So what are the numbers now?
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