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What drives Air Canada's stock price?

What drives Air Canada's stock price?

Old Aug 1, 14, 3:50 pm
  #46  
 
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Originally Posted by yyznomad View Post
Who actually owns AC stock... and why?
I did more when it was back in the $1-4 range, the large fluctuations were good for day trading. Since it became less of a penny stock, my interest has lessened though I still think gains are to be had.
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Old Aug 1, 14, 4:13 pm
  #47  
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Most of the folks I know buy when high and end up selling low...

Not that i would risk shorting either.
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Old Aug 2, 14, 8:05 am
  #48  
 
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Originally Posted by drvannostren View Post
Ugh, I dunno man. I'm expecting a really good quarter report from AC but it doesn't seem to matter what's happened lately everyone is getting slammed. Twitter has been one of the few stocks I follow that jumped up after a good quarter. I've got AA and after a good quarter it's now down more than $5 from where it was BEFORE it reported.
Not looking for an explosion, was just hoping for a little run up like UAL, WJA enjoyed after beating expectations last week. The fact I'm already off 4% is a little frustrating. Contemplated going for more @ $9.30 yesterday but didn't want too much exposure if market reaction is muted or if results don't materialize to match my expectations
Originally Posted by drvannostren View Post
I bought AC at $7.95 with one of my first ever trades, got more when it dipped from there into I think the high 6s if memory serves. Hit $10.50 maybe 3 weeks ago after a run and I thought it'd hit 11 (I think the high might've been 10.80). Never did, now it's back in the singles and I dumped half when it shot to $10 briefly a few days ago. I've got my sell order set for 10.50 for the rest but I'm not sure man. I feel like even a good quarter and it'll slide back to low 9s high 8s.
We shall see. I was going to sell @ 10.50 too but might lower my LO depending on movement Tues + Wed ahead of the call.
Originally Posted by drvannostren View Post
Long term I think we're in good shape (12-18 months) but in the short this past week's sell off hasn't been good and if it continues into next week it could be a bit ugly...which does create buying opportunities. I wouldn't buy this high if I were you trying to time it.
I'm not going near that long. I'm in thru Q3 max unless I get my price in the interim.
Good luck with your remaining position though
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Old Aug 2, 14, 4:07 pm
  #49  
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If you're trying to max out a $1 or so difference with volume, check out Shaw Communications. Every couple of months the stock drops $2 (from the mid-$20s) for a couple of days, then rebounds back up. Most curious pattern but it's been happening regularly for years now. You'll probably do better on that play than waiting for AC to go up next week when the quarterly is announced. I think any increase in profit etc. has already been priced into the stock and there'll be marginal upward movement, particularly after this week's decline.
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Old Aug 6, 14, 6:13 pm
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I'm not necessarily in this for the long term. I'm a new investor but it's hard to think of stocks as something to REALLY hold on to for the super long term. Unless you have a big position in a stable dividend I'm maybe just a bit too squeamish to be sitting here at say 45 (I'm now 28) with hypothetically $30,000 or something invested in a company that POTENTIALLY could crap out at any time. Obviously limit orders and being prudent really mitigate that chance, but there's always that slim chance the economy tanks, then you're sitting there holding worthless pieces of paper.

I feel like I got in at a good time, dumped half now I'm playing with mostly house money (on this trade). If AC drops to 9 I'll be a buyer, then a bigger buyer on lower levels. I think the company is on the right track so I feel pretty comfortable waiting for $10.50 to bail out completely. I'm not looking to get rich, but have some fun, learn a thing or two and invest in a company I like and support as well.

That said my American Airlines stock has been getting slammed lately, I really want to buy in further because I think this decline is largely Russia/Ukraine related, but it's hard to decide when a good quarter is reported and the stock tanks anyway. It's tough to see where the bottom is before a rebound, but we'll see.
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Old Aug 6, 14, 6:51 pm
  #51  
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If that's your plan stay clear of airlines. This has been an unusual cycle of upward movement because the US industry has finally been rationalized and for the first time EVER making reasonable profits. However, each company has also started low coming out of bankruptcy, then let the market, rational or irrational, assign it a general target. I think those targets have now been reached so airlines are not going to be moving your money to much greater heights.

And the notion of buying low and selling high is great in theory, but if we all knew when to buy and when to sell, we'd all be well set today. The market is rigged against the little guy. From time to time you might luck out buying an AC or AA when it comes out of bankruptcy and does its climb. Most of the time, you'll get creamed.
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Old Aug 7, 14, 4:02 am
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Originally Posted by yyznomad View Post
Who actually owns AC stock... and why?
suckers?
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Old Aug 7, 14, 5:05 am
  #53  
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Not looking for an explosion, was just hoping for a little run up like UAL, WJA enjoyed after beating expectations last week. The fact I'm already off 4% is a little frustrating. Contemplated going for more @ $9.30 yesterday but didn't want too much exposure if market reaction is muted or if results don't materialize to match my expectations
As I said you don't know what you're doing. You cackled and mocked and did all your standard BS, but I told you, you don't know what you're doing.

Gut instincts and market timing are not an investment strategy.

Now you want to emotionally make it better for yourself by buying more here because you're off 4%. So you did something clueless the first time for strategy, now you are thinking about doubling down on the standard clueless response.

There's a good analysis that was done out there with grad students (i.e. people you could confidently indicate were not just dummies) and let them manage a $25k portfolio. In general they burned it to the ground.

The worst strategies depend on gut feeling and predictions like what you're trying to make.

Even if your underlying prediction is good (like say record numbers of people flown) there are so many side possibilities (protracted economic war with Russia pushing oil way up) that on any given day you don't know how the market will interpret the same piece of news. Shrug, down, or up. That's the problem with simplistic thinking.

What's more, if the market starts *expecting* record results on a monthly basis, as has been happening, that information is *priced in*. Now they want you to not only set a record every month, but the size of the record has to grow. If the direction of record growth changes, oops. Crash. So many ways that positive news can be interpreted negatively. So you really never know. Record earnings talks about yesterday, what they care about is what comes next. So what comes next for you Air Canada? $150 oil because now we have full blown Soviet Union Evil Empire type of relations going on with Russia? Who knows.

Lastly there are guys who are ahead of the sheep they lead to slaughter. These guys buy on the rumor and sell on the news. The sheep buy during the runup, then the positive news comes out and the stock tanks and they are left holding their losses going why, why? The why is because the stock was no longer interesting as a momentum play. As long as that news was sitting out there as a future possibility they know the sheep will keep pouring in and they help set that up. Then on the day the positive news is announced they slit the sheep's throat and suck up all that nice blood. Sheep are not prepared to react to positive news by selling.

You never know when this particular thing is going to play out.

As a result, you are doing no more than gambling.

Now, as an uneducated gambler you are feeling worried and bad about your 5% loss you're showing on your gamble. Maybe you're not so smart. After all someone warned you and you mocked him.

So what you want to do now is "make it ok" by turning your 5% loss into a buying opportunity. But you need to call it what it is to the gambler. You're gonna double down. Increase your risk and your exposure.

Instead of making a nice smart investment strategy, now your gut feeling got you into a fast 5% loss, and now you're going to to increase your risk to justify the initial investment which may have been wrong (or right). If it keeps falling you're going to keep doubling down until you're borrowing money.

If this Russia thing turns into a shooting war, you can watch oil go up, travel stocks go down and who knows what happens. Maybe a 20% pullback in the market over a 2 day period. Then the sheep start to worry and start selling.

So the gambler has mortgaged the house in order to make himself basically FEEL BETTER when the stock is falling and the next thing you know, poof. You threw all this money away speculating.

If you want to do it for fun, you can join investing clubs and do it for fun. If you are gambling, there are better stocks to gamble on. Picking the one that you like to rah rah on a message board about as a company may not be the best pick to gamble on because you're too emotionally tied into trying to constantly prove yourself right on this board. Which makes it even MORE of a "you don't know what you're doing" situation.

So here you are. You've made yourself the perfect storm by first, taking every single post here about this company personally. Then you've gone out and announced that now you're putting money into it. There is no way you can make rational decisions at this point because you are already out of your mind in terms of how much this board affects your personal sense of cred. And now you're going to work an investment to basically buy yourself cred on a messageboard.

Don't know what you're doing.

The boring investment advice is the best. Join competitions for doing gut feelings and this kind of stuff. Unless you have so much money and discipline that you can put aside a separate account that you will not pour money into and call it the arcade. In the arcade anything goes for all your wild gut feelings and market timings.

So, more free advice. Don't throw good money after bad. You made your wager. Don't try to pat your emotions on the back by upping your bet. All of these things show poor risk analysis skills.

You made your bet. Sit on your bet. See how it works out. Maybe good or bad. Either way you have a lot to learn about this. You can refuse to admit it which just means over the long haul the real men are going to take away all your lunch money. A stopped clock tells the right time twice a day. A dead cat can indeed bounce. If you call the first three flips of a coin correctly, it does not mean you will get the next three wrong, or the next three right. You got lucky. It's gambling.

Right here you flipped a coin. You called heads, right now it's tails. You won't say you were wrong about your bet. In the morning it could very well be heads. If it is you will indeed say you are right and take credit for it. It doesn't mean it is smart or a strategy it means it is gambling and over the long haul they will take your lunch money. People like you just fuel the profits for people like them.

But hey. Don't say you were not warned. The advice is to buy some real books about how to invest and learn it. Market timing is not even a strategy for the big guys. You've got people who have been howling sell this darn bull market for the last few years. They keep saying there's going to be a correction.

Eventually there will be one. Maybe this is it right now. It's looking pretty sketchy out there. When it comes, each one of these guys will be like you and say SEE, SEE? I WAS RIGHT.

Yes, if your clock is stopped on midnight eventually it will be midnight and you can have your moment of glory and say see? This clock WORKS. Then it is over and it's back to being wrong for 11 hours, 59 minutes and 59 seconds.

All those end of the world types kept people out of the market that has been going up and up. You can't time it.

But what you can do is manage risk. Note, you don't control it. You manage it. You will get stung when everyone else gets burned. You will do nicely when everyone else is shining bright. But if you manage your risk your investment will grow and you will not be one of those guys who is knocked out of the game and that is the first rule.

Don't get knocked out by making foolish, risky decisions, based on lack of information, and lack of understanding, especially those that are gambles.

In a rising market the right move is to not take it all out (try to time the market) or put it all in (try to time the market) but to leave enough in to ride the wave, while meanwhile peeling off high risk and moving into low risk and balancing out the portfolio. In the opposite market as the market ages, buy into risk that will benefit when the economy bounces.

Now is not the time to buy AC. The time to buy AC was at the one dollar levels. Like where I bought it. I flushed it out when I tripled my money then I walked.

I don't try to time the top. I saw my opportunity, made good money, walked. Let the guys who are planning on holding to the top do so. Only one guy gets to sell at the top.

Ultimately airlines are stupid investments and what goes up will come down. It's just the sheep that run in at the end and lose all their money. I've been raising cash, no more investments, for a while now. Making sure that when the tide turns and everything falls apart, like it will for sure, I will have the means to pick up people's broken plans and make some money off it.

Last edited by tyberius; Aug 7, 14 at 5:18 am
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Old Aug 7, 14, 5:11 am
  #54  
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Originally Posted by why fly View Post
suckers?
Yup, like those who bought at $1.70 and sold at $9.80. And have kept the change to play AC craps with.
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Old Aug 7, 14, 1:07 pm
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Originally Posted by tyberius View Post
As I said you don't know what you're doing. You cackled and mocked and did all your standard BS, but I told you, you don't know what you're doing.
Gut instincts and market timing are not an investment strategy.
Promise if you keep your epic posts under 30 lines, I will get through them.
I've done very well to date on "gut feeling" trades on AC over the last 18 months. Posted positions @ $2.15 and tripled my investment. Of course, The great tyberius couldn't find the time for long-winded Monday-morning-QB diatribe in those threads. But all the time here.
Doesn't have time to revisit his aviation projections and feelings about Rouge/AC.
Sticks to tweets and brand discussion, about FA hatwear and Skytrax.
Here, I jumped back in with some house money thinking the results would beat. And they just met. I gambled with house money. Thus far my gamble has failed.
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Old Aug 7, 14, 1:32 pm
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Originally Posted by CloudsBelow View Post
Promise if you keep your epic posts under 30 lines, I will get through them.
I've done very well to date on "gut feeling" trades on AC over the last 18 months. Posted positions @ $2.15 and tripled my investment. Of course, The great tyberius couldn't find the time for long-winded Monday-morning-QB diatribe in those threads. But all the time here.
Doesn't have time to revisit his aviation projections and feelings about Rouge/AC.
Sticks to tweets and brand discussion, about FA hatwear and Skytrax.
Here, I jumped back in with some house money thinking the results would beat. And they just met. I gambled with house money. Thus far my gamble has failed.
LOL, I'm not like you. I don't wake up and rush out to flyertalk and try to find my enemies and engage them. For me, wow, even whole days or weeks may go by without posting.

Anyway, in this case, you did something really stupid.

You were told you were doing something stupid, but you mocked.

You were given advice, but you ignored it and you mocked.

You posted another stupid idea, piling stupid on top of stupid. You got something trying to explain in depth what you're doing wrong, something helpful, but you don't have the processing power between your ears to digest it.

So you just continue on your stupid way, thinking that you somehow have the ability to predict coin flips.

You don't.

At least here you admit that you're gambling. You just gamble on Air Canada so with the hopes that if you get it right you can come here and crow about it. Instead, here you are, looking stupid and eating crow. Except you keep firing your guns as you go down in flames. LOL.

Anyway keep it up.
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Old Aug 7, 14, 1:46 pm
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Originally Posted by tyberius View Post
LOL, I'm not like you. I don't wake up and rush out to flyertalk and try to find my enemies and engage them. For me, wow, even whole days or weeks may go by without posting.

Anyway, in this case, you did something really stupid.

You were told you were doing something stupid, but you mocked.

You were given advice, but you ignored it and you mocked.

You posted another stupid idea, piling stupid on top of stupid. You got something trying to explain in depth what you're doing wrong, something helpful, but you don't have the processing power between your ears to digest it.

So you just continue on your stupid way, thinking that you somehow have the ability to predict coin flips.

You don't.

At least here you admit that you're gambling. You just gamble on Air Canada so with the hopes that if you get it right you can come here and crow about it. Instead, here you are, looking stupid and eating crow. Except you keep firing your guns as you go down in flames. LOL.

Anyway keep it up.
You woke up on the correct side of one position and you're here to let everyone know. How impressive.
Sounds like the reaction I'd expect from a guy who rarely finds himself in that situation.
I didn't run to FT telling every random poster who would listen about my profits on the AC purchased at 2.15. Last week I clearly said I was out and came back in on a gut feel and for some action. Never denied it.
I will deal with results when I sell.
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Old Aug 7, 14, 3:31 pm
  #58  
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Originally Posted by CloudsBelow View Post
You woke up on the correct side of one position and you're here to let everyone know. How impressive.
Sounds like the reaction I'd expect from a guy who rarely finds himself in that situation.
I didn't run to FT telling every random poster who would listen about my profits on the AC purchased at 2.15. Last week I clearly said I was out and came back in on a gut feel and for some action. Never denied it.
I will deal with results when I sell.
LOL, no, I told you you were doing something stupid when you crowed about how you were going to be victorious with your 9.79 purchase.

I never said you would surely lose money. I am still not saying you will surely lose money. The only way to surely lose money is to sell it right now.

What I said, was that you didn't know what you were doing. You went on and on about how you were going to be right and you wanted me to tell you somehow that you would surely lose on your trade.

I refused to do so.

What I told you was that your methodology was whack. And as a result you were going to get unpredictable results where you thought you had a sure thing. Based on your ever so intelligent "feelings" which may actually in the end be a lot smarter than your "brain."

In spite of this, you are failing to understand the argument is about your methodology. You are trying to have an argument about the results of a coin flip.

I'm trying to tell you this is a stupid argument to be having. And you're still trying to say it's about heads or tails.

You have a complete and utter failure to even begin to understand what this is about.

100% sure on this side, that if the stock had gone up you'd be doing the hey look at me, look at how right I am dance. And I would still say, and I would be correct, that your methodology was wrong. And I am not saying that I was right in predicting the stock to be down. I never predicted it to be down. You now are trying to put me in your shoes, because you see this, the same way as you see everything, as an overly simplistic case of black and white. If you thought the stock would go up, if I say something negative it must mean that I am taking the opposite position.

Just completely wrong and a failure to understand anything I'm trying, vainly, to teach you about.

But I do admit it is fun to watch you losing money after all your bragging crap you fling around on this website. Of course I know how the market is and that may only be a temporary pleasure, but I will enjoy it regardless.
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Old Aug 9, 14, 7:19 am
  #59  
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Aggregated here for readability...

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/22184490-post389.html
Originally Posted by CloudsBelow View Post
LOL.
Go back and read your prognostications of AC, their performance, their stock potential.
You're what we call an auto-fade in the equity game ...
Wish you would have put your money where your mouth was and shorted AC @ $4 when you were "confident they'd give back their gains".
But you'll sit here predicting doom for an airline stock. Gee, what a bold prediction for an incredibly cyclical segment. Just wait it out, might be months, might be years but it will happen. And then you can tell us all how "you knew this would happen all along". Perhaps when the AC labour relation issue rear their ugly heads again? Perhaps if oil spikes? Perhaps if Canada slips into recession? But, you sir are way ahead of it all. Much sharper than us - you know it's coming. You've been predicting it for many months.
In the meantime, we'll just have to take your wise word for it I guess.
You keep saying I've made all sorts of claims that I never have, particularly with regard to prognostications about AC stock prices and potential. You've even suggested I've been less than honest (and that you were going to back up those claims by hunting for evidence of such dissembling):

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/21232912-post17.html
Originally Posted by CloudsBelow View Post
When I get some time, I will be sure to review those threads to be sure you're not talking out of both sides of your mouth.

But the fact is I've never made any predictions about AC stock price. Rather, all I've done is repeatedly respond to those who claim that Air Canada's stock price is proof Air Canada's management is doing a great job. All I have ever suggested is that the stock price is not really indicative of anything other than the stock price. And in this thread, I've made the case that Air Canada's stock has behaved in pretty much the same way as almost every other North American airline.

So here's my take on what drives the stock price:
1. medium to long term - overall international economic performance
2. short to medium term - continental industry trends
3. day to day variability - irrational exuberance and irrational pessimism

I think this week's example is a good one. Air Canada actually made real money this quarter, yet on the day of the announcement of the not insubstantial profit the stock lost 8% of its value. Does that mean Air Canada's management screwed up big time and should be summarily sacked? Or does it mean that the market is driven not so much by Adam Smith's "invisible hand" but rather an "invisible drunken stagger?"

I'm smart enough to know that I have neither the smarts nor the nerve to do my own investing. That's why I have a broker and mutual funds, complete with their bogus management fees. In the last decade (including the 2008 meltdown) I've maintained about 14%, and about 24% this year. Absolutely none of that is due to my stock market prowess.

I'm amused however that 2 days after you referred to me as an "auto-fade" because of my comments, Air Canada tanked in jaw-dropping fashion, losing more than a third of its value in the next few months, and that immediately after me resurrecting this issue last week (and even in light AC announcing a significant and real profit) the stock dropped more than 12%. Perhaps the market was responding to my brilliant insights.

But I still maintain, will continue to maintain, and will state again every time someone suggests the stock price is due to Air Canada management, that the stock is primarily driven by factors far removed from the airline. Just like it was on Thursday.
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Old Aug 9, 14, 9:17 am
  #60  
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Originally Posted by KenHamer View Post
But I still maintain, will continue to maintain, and will state again every time someone suggests the stock price is due to Air Canada management, that the stock is primarily driven by factors far removed from the airline. Just like it was on Thursday.
AC's management/executive team has been very good in talking up their prowess at improving the numbers and this in turn has hyped to stock to rather spectacular levels (going from just over $1 to just under $10) over the course of a year or so. The media is gullible and the Market moves accordingly. Where management has been very good is maximizing revenue vs seat availability and reducing costs to maximize margins. This is in no small part due to reducing its purchase of AE miles on low fares, and adding surcharges everywhere these can be rationalized. With a recovering consumer, and a docile competitor who is also out to maximize margins, AC has been able to generate profits to cover the arrears of its pension plan (and internally generated better ROIs to lower the shortfall). With the PP liability cleared, it can now boast of generating real profits and thus become a stable and attractive long term investment.

Of course, valuing anything based on its MarketCap is a questionable act at best, given how fickle and unreliable the stock markets can be. At the moment UBER is valued more highly by The Market than any airline which actually has assets and operates a real business. And we all remember how AOL became larger than TimeWarner, thus enabling this guppy to swallow that media whale.

Let's just say in this regard, AC's team has transformed the airline into a relatively stable operation with a credible face in the Market. As I posted the other day, I don't see the stock rising above $10 for any sustained period of time and it is more likely to be "normal' in the $8-$9 range...which ironically is where the stock was when the original company's stock was first issued back in the 1980s and where it languished until the CP/AC/ONEX take-over battle of 1999/2000. (Yes, these are actual constant dollars, not adjusted for anything.)
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