Aggregated here for readability...
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/22184490-post389.html
Originally Posted by
CloudsBelow
LOL.
Go back and read your prognostications of AC, their performance, their stock potential.
You're what we call an auto-fade in the equity game ...
Wish you would have put your money where your mouth was and shorted AC @ $4 when you were "confident they'd give back their gains".
But you'll sit here predicting doom for an airline stock. Gee, what a bold prediction for an incredibly cyclical segment. Just wait it out, might be months, might be years but it will happen. And then you can tell us all how "you knew this would happen all along". Perhaps when the AC labour relation issue rear their ugly heads again? Perhaps if oil spikes? Perhaps if Canada slips into recession? But, you sir are way ahead of it all. Much sharper than us - you know it's coming. You've been predicting it for many months.
In the meantime, we'll just have to take your wise word for it I guess.
You keep saying I've made all sorts of claims that I never have, particularly with regard to prognostications about AC stock prices and potential. You've even suggested I've been less than honest (and that you were going to back up those claims by hunting for evidence of such dissembling):
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/21232912-post17.html
Originally Posted by
CloudsBelow
When I get some time, I will be sure to review those threads to be sure you're not talking out of both sides of your mouth.
But the fact is I've
never made any predictions about AC stock price. Rather, all I've done is repeatedly respond to those who claim that Air Canada's stock price is proof Air Canada's management is doing a great job. All I have ever suggested is that the stock price is not really indicative of anything other than the stock price. And in this thread, I've made the case that Air Canada's stock has behaved in pretty much the same way as almost every other North American airline.
So here's my take on what drives the stock price:
1. medium to long term - overall international economic performance
2. short to medium term - continental industry trends
3. day to day variability - irrational exuberance
and irrational pessimism
I think this week's example is a good one. Air Canada actually made real money this quarter, yet on the day of the announcement of the not insubstantial profit the stock lost 8% of its value. Does that mean Air Canada's management screwed up big time and should be summarily sacked? Or does it mean that the market is driven not so much by Adam Smith's "invisible hand" but rather an "invisible drunken stagger?"
I'm smart enough to know that I have neither the smarts nor the nerve to do my own investing. That's why I have a broker and mutual funds, complete with their bogus management fees. In the last decade (including the 2008 meltdown) I've maintained about 14%, and about 24% this year. Absolutely none of that is due to my stock market prowess.
I'm amused however that 2 days after you referred to me as an "auto-fade" because of my comments, Air Canada tanked in jaw-dropping fashion, losing more than a third of its value in the next few months, and that immediately after me resurrecting this issue last week (and even in light AC announcing a significant and real profit) the stock dropped more than 12%. Perhaps the market was responding to my brilliant insights.
But I still maintain, will continue to maintain, and will state again every time someone suggests the stock price is due to Air Canada management, that the stock is primarily driven by factors far removed from the airline. Just like it was on Thursday.