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What drives Air Canada's stock price?

What drives Air Canada's stock price?

Old Nov 4, 2015, 9:30 am
  #91  
 
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Good / interesting thread topic...

I agree with you, and think it would be worth it.

I do however think it will be funny when people come in here saying "buy buy buy" and then go into other threads criticizing all of AC's decisions to increase their profits and growth by sacrificing patient comfort in Y etc...
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Old Nov 4, 2015, 9:44 am
  #92  
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Originally Posted by CanadianMike
Good / interesting thread topic...

I agree with you, and think it would be worth it.

I do however think it will be funny when people come in here saying "buy buy buy" and then go into other threads criticizing all of AC's decisions to increase their profits and growth by sacrificing patient comfort in Y etc...
Well, to be fair, the people that criticize AC's decisions to increase their profits are probably the people who won't buy this stock.

AC is continuing to grow, increasing their density, and continues to improve on things like OTP, baggage delivery success, and I'm no sucker when it comes to investor relations, but I can't see any major potential downside for the stock.

The $ is where it is and that can impact earnings. If the price of oil goes up, the dollar will go up, so that could be an issue. Then again, I would argue that the risk is factored already.

To me, the price of AC stock is so low. It's not a penny stock obviously, but what, $13/share? I have some gambling money...
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Old Nov 4, 2015, 9:48 am
  #93  
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Originally Posted by airbus320
I have never and I will never invest in airline stocks.
Why, easiest way to become a millionaire. Start investing as a billionaire, few years later, you will be a millionaire.
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Old Nov 4, 2015, 9:50 am
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Originally Posted by Wpgjetse
Why, easiest way to become a millionaire. Start investing as a billionaire, few years later, you will be a millionaire.
Well, if you have invested in AC a few years ago, the ROI would have been incredible!
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Old Nov 4, 2015, 12:41 pm
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What drives Air Canada's stock price?
Whether there is a pension plan in need to enter/liquidate a position, and random HFT shenanigans.

Everything else can be ignored.

You're welcome.
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Old Nov 4, 2015, 12:50 pm
  #96  
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Originally Posted by superangrypenguin
Originally Posted by Wpgjetse
Why, easiest way to become a millionaire. Start investing as a billionaire, few years later, you will be a millionaire.
Well, if you have invested in AC a few years ago, the ROI would have been incredible!
Or WS. Or AA. Or UA. Or DL. Or spirit. Or Southwest. Or or or...
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Old Nov 4, 2015, 1:35 pm
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Originally Posted by superangrypenguin
but I can't see any major potential downside for the stock..
Recession in Alberta? That will trickle into Ontario's manufacturing sector as demand for equipment in Ft Mac drops to zero, plus I see a major reduction in corporate travel in Alberta.

WS launching service to LGW next year will undoubtedly have an impact on load factors and yield in the summer TATL markets.

If there is another labour dispute I can't see the Liberals sheltering AC as much as the Conservatives did.

The 6 month trend for AC share price is steady decline, so I would not be jumping in now.

In short, there are all sorts of things that could have a negative influence on AC stock price in the next few years. Personally, I would never by an airline stock, I'm not comfortable with the risk level. Instead I'd be buying a major oil company stock now, as they will go back up when the oil price returns.
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Old Nov 4, 2015, 3:13 pm
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Originally Posted by KenHamer
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Or WS. Or AA. Or UA. Or DL. Or spirit. Or Southwest. Or or or...
WS would have been a great stock a few years ago, but returns are limited now. Didn't AA and UA have bankruptcy issues? My quote was more of a joke, but airlines in general have never been a good long term investment. Short term airlines have had good returns, but long term, ?.
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Old Nov 4, 2015, 3:27 pm
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Originally Posted by Jagboi
Recession in Alberta? That will trickle into Ontario's manufacturing sector as demand for equipment in Ft Mac drops to zero, plus I see a major reduction in corporate travel in Alberta.

WS launching service to LGW next year will undoubtedly have an impact on load factors and yield in the summer TATL markets.

If there is another labour dispute I can't see the Liberals sheltering AC as much as the Conservatives did.

The 6 month trend for AC share price is steady decline, so I would not be jumping in now.

In short, there are all sorts of things that could have a negative influence on AC stock price in the next few years. Personally, I would never by an airline stock, I'm not comfortable with the risk level. Instead I'd be buying a major oil company stock now, as they will go back up when the oil price returns.
The recession in Alberta will effect WS more than AC in general and didn't AC lock all their employee contracts up long term. I think AC's contacts run longer than the Liberal government even if they wins a second term.

I will agree with you on AC profits and share prices dropping in time, but this will not happen in the next 6 months. There are way to many poss. keeping profits from dropping and AC can cut capacity quickly at low costs if they had to. Oil stocks? I don't know. Maybe long term, but short term no.
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Old Nov 4, 2015, 3:52 pm
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Originally Posted by Wpgjetse
WS would have been a great stock a few years ago, but returns are limited now. Didn't AA and UA have bankruptcy issues? My quote was more of a joke, but airlines in general have never been a good long term investment. Short term airlines have had good returns, but long term, ?.
AC went into Bankruptcy 2003 and came out 2004
United came out of Bankruptcy Oct. 6, 2005

When is the next AC Bankruptcy? Who knows i guess when Oil prices go up again?
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Old Nov 4, 2015, 3:56 pm
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Originally Posted by why fly
AC went into Bankruptcy 2003 and came out 2004
United came out of Bankruptcy Oct. 6, 2005

When is the next AC Bankruptcy? Who knows i guess when Oil prices go up again?
Maybe, maybe not. Could say this for every airline.
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Old Nov 4, 2015, 7:17 pm
  #102  
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AC has negotiated labour agreements that preclude any industrial action for the initial lifespan of this government, so the furutre's fine in this respect.

AC stock started at about $1-$2 when it emerged from its shelter of its holding company and has hovered between $10-$12 for the past year. All airlines in North America are now pretty stable as the marketplace has stabilized, competition domestically settled. The major threat comes from the EKs of the world impacting on certain routes. In AC's case, its either feeder traffic to LHR or FRA to STAR partners onward to Asia or Africa, or its own flights to India.

UA, DL and AA have all done well since emerging from either bankruptcy or mergers, some more than doubling in market pricing. Though it may now be a bit late to start buying in and seeing similar rises in their valuations.

(If you're looking for some fast-rising stocks, get into marijuana suppliers. Since the election of the Liberals, their shares have doubled. May be late for this first round of increases, but once the new government decriminalizes, look for another jump. Full commercialization/legalization and the sky's the limit!)
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Old Nov 5, 2015, 12:13 am
  #103  
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Originally Posted by superangrypenguin
Well, to be fair, the people that criticize AC's decisions to increase their profits are probably the people who won't buy this stock.

AC is continuing to grow, increasing their density, and continues to improve on things like OTP, baggage delivery success, and I'm no sucker when it comes to investor relations, but I can't see any major potential downside for the stock.

The $ is where it is and that can impact earnings. If the price of oil goes up, the dollar will go up, so that could be an issue. Then again, I would argue that the risk is factored already.

To me, the price of AC stock is so low. It's not a penny stock obviously, but what, $13/share? I have some gambling money...
An airline stock trading at 35 PE multiple during record low oil prices when that PE excludes weird things like aircraft leasing expenses and you think that's low? Go for it. You are young and wise. Good for you.
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Old Nov 5, 2015, 9:53 pm
  #104  
 
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Originally Posted by Shareholder
[...]If you're looking for some fast-rising stocks, get into marijuana suppliers. Since the election of the Liberals[...]
LOL, that's actually the best investment advice I've ever read on FT (and I'm actually not kidding).


Originally Posted by Allvest
[...]PE multiple[...]
PE? Really? lol I expected better from you sir.

AC is trading at 2.8 12 month EV EBITDA. The sector is trading around 9.

But hey, you are old and full of wisdom so...
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Old Nov 6, 2015, 12:34 am
  #105  
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Originally Posted by SparseFlyer
LOL, that's actually the best investment advice I've ever read on FT (and I'm actually not kidding).




PE? Really? lol I expected better from you sir.

AC is trading at 2.8 12 month EV EBITDA. The sector is trading around 9.

But hey, you are old and full of wisdom so...
Well then. Off with my head and on to a $45 AC share price.
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